Stock Market Prediction

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

The market isn't climbing on emergency funding. That's a false flag tale.

Think about it. The market KNOWS emergency "funding" is absolutely coming. They've known about it for A LONG TIME.

Think about it. The Fed Reserve has done a shitton of stuff in the last couple weeks, including reducing rates to ZERO, and it didn't register one bit in the markets.

Now you think an 11% rise in one day is due to the impending passage of an emergency funding bill? Did they just create this bill yesterday? No.

No way this rise was due to this funding bill.

There are other things at play here.

Other than the stimulus bill? The market was severely oversold technically, but that's about it. Some of it may have been short covering. I don't think anyone is buying that this is the start of a lasting rally.

[barahona44]

Originally Posted by Valuist

Other than the stimulus bill? The market was severely oversold technically, but that's about it. Some of it may have been short covering. I don't think anyone is buying that this is the start of a lasting rally.

And the coronavirus keeps on keeping on.Ridiculously emotional market.

Personally, I could live with a market that 5 years from now was still around the 2400-2600 point. Get the amateurs and speculators out, for the next move up.

Just in time for my golden years.

[Valuist]

Wouldn't it be great to have a market go down 35% in a month, then the market realize all would be ok and we can ride upward, at discounted prices?

If it was only that simple. We can go down 35%, then up 20% then back down to retest lows, then 10% rally, then retest the lows. And on and on it goes. If this is a secular bear market, figure on it lasting for 2 years.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Valuist

Other than the stimulus bill? The market was severely oversold technically, but that's about it. Some of it may have been short covering. I don't think anyone is buying that this is the start of a lasting rally.

But why was it selling off?

Fear. Fear of what the economic damage done by the virus was doing and might/will do going forward.

Any stimulus bill isn't going to help much, all things considered. It's a short term bandaid.

I think what you saw today was some of the FEAR leaving the market. VIX was also down again...

Why is some of the fear leaving? It's not due to a stimulus bill.

I think the market is signaling that we might have turned the corner on the virus. I think Trump's words about easing restrictions provided a huge boost...doesn't matter if the news outlets are hammering him for it.

The market really does know best.

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

But why was it selling off?

Fear. Fear of what the economic damage done by the virus was doing and might/will do going forward.

Any stimulus bill isn't going to help much, all things considered. It's a short term bandaid.

I think what you saw today was some of the FEAR leaving the market. VIX was also down again...

Why is some of the fear leaving? It's not due to a stimulus bill.

I think the market is signaling that we might have turned the corner on the virus. I think Trump's words about easing restrictions provided a huge boost...doesn't matter if the news outlets are hammering him for it.

The market really does know best.

I agree with your last sentence. Whether the stimulus bill does much is more of a long term issue; in the short term, I believe "they" feel it will help. The VXX may have been down today, but it's still near 50. This was likely a one day deadcat bounce off oversold conditions. I do believe you are right that the market will know when we've turned the corner before any of us know; but I'd be very surprised if that event just happened.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I think Trump's words about easing restrictions provided a huge boost...doesn't matter if the news outlets are hammering him for it.

The market really does know best.

The markets will be the least of anyone's concerns. It's all been a fear induced "flu virus" panic diversion, from what's really about to take place.

What do you think will happen between now and Easter Sunday?....Holy crap, did the virus disappear? Did the MSM surrender to Trump? Did the Pope or QEII die yet? How many False Flag events are going to happen around the globe?...This has been a silent war so far, but it's about to get real LOUD...

Military on full alert, National Guard already deployed in numerous states...Better lock it all down now, that way there'll be no school or church shootings, sports or concert venue massacres(These all have been done already). Stop all domestic flights as well, and jam all drones from flying, no matter how small.(Waiting on these)

There's a reason for the Lockdown, it's much easier to capture the enemy who can't escape, unless they've already fled the country(Australia and New Zealand come to mind)….

[mikesal57]

Buying Cruise stocks again....

Where is the government getting all this money to give????

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

But why was it selling off?

Fear. Fear of what the economic damage done by the virus was doing and might/will do going forward.

Any stimulus bill isn't going to help much, all things considered. It's a short term bandaid.

I think what you saw today was some of the FEAR leaving the market. VIX was also down again...

Why is some of the fear leaving? It's not due to a stimulus bill.

I think the market is signaling that we might have turned the corner on the virus. I think Trump's words about easing restrictions provided a huge boost...doesn't matter if the news outlets are hammering him for it.

The market really does know best.

I'm starting to think you may be right. Yes, NYC is a nightmare but death rate still not high. When you look at Seattle and northern CA considering how things started out, I thought they would be much worse now. When one looks at annual death numbers by flu in the US each year, we are a long ways from that so far.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

Buying Cruise stocks again....

Where is the government getting all this money to give????

now that is a pretty good question! none of us have the answer to this. when an individual owes a creditor and can't pay, the creditor tries to put his hands on any assets the debtor has. if the debtor owns a car or a house they go right after it, if he has money in the bank he grabs that. i suppose the same thing is with this country. this country has lots of assets like land and real estate they can use to payoff what they owe. its nothing new for countries to forfeit land after world wars. the president has declared the corona virus as a war.

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

Buying Cruise stocks again....

Where is the government getting all this money to give????

That is real interesting. If you have a real, real long time perspective, you should do quite well.

I consider the Cruise ship stocks now like Chipotle after their food poisoning incidents. For the next 18 months after the incidents, Chipotle stock was toxic. I remember one day, out of the blue, deciding to give them a try. It was better than ever before. Others must've agreed. The past couple years, Chipotle was one of the top performers in the S & P 500.

The lesson here is perception takes a while to change. Once a thought is in people's heads, something big has to happen to change it. It is going to take a long time for the public to not associate cruise ships with floating germ receptacles. Eventually they will, but I'd guess that's two years away.

[Valuist]

Bill Ackman's firm made over $2 billion in short positions the last 5 weeks. They covered their last short position on Monday.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bi...urn-just-three

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

Buying Cruise stocks again....

Where is the government getting all this money to give????

Printing Presses?
Both Cruise lines and Chipotle fit well into the Contrarian thread too. Although in my life time, we've not experienced anything comparable to the current crisis caused by a pandemic. Here's something I looked for during the last big bailout, which companies refused to take the govt. money when it was available. I have doubts any will refuse to take it this time.

[ReplayRandall]

Bottom-line, you have to EAT, you don't have to CRUISE...Get real...

[Ocala Mike]

Originally Posted by FakeNameChanged

Printing Presses?

And why is this referred to as a stimulus bill? It will stimulate nothing, and should be referred to as a rescue or bailout bill.

[barahona44]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Bottom-line, you have to EAT, you don't have to CRUISE...Get real...

When you're on a cruise though, it seems all you do is eat.

But your point is well taken.The "Big 3" American based cruise lines (Carnival, Royal Caribbean and Norwegian),only 5% of their employees are American citizens.And all of their ships are registered in foreign countries,especially Panama and Liberia,to skirt USA maritime and labor regulations.Yes a lot of service vendors in the ports are dependent on cruise lines but you can say that about any industry.I say give the help to business who were directly affected by the various government orders to shut down and to laid off employees.