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Old 07-13-2020, 11:05 PM   #1
capitalman
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Join Date: Apr 2019
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Saratoga

Handicapped for fast & firm/good on turf only.

July 16 Opening day:
1st-A tough race that I’ll be sitting out, but here are the picks:
1st #2 Grit and Glory is 1st off a Linda Rice claim. Rice hits on 26% of her claims.
2nd #4 Sargent Drive. Rice has this race over a barrel & J. Ortiz is up.
3rd #6 Guy Caballero. Rudy gets this one off the Navarro scrap heap. Will try to get Repole right out of the starting blocks in his quest for the owner title.

2nd: PASS

3rd:
1st #1 Carrizo-Won 2 of her 3 races here last year, possible horse for the course.
2nd #5 Palomita The far superior of the 2 Chads.
3rd #3 Palace Avenger. Ran 2nd in a key race last May at Churchill.

4th BEST BET
1st: #6 Thrill was unruly early in her (turf) debut, switches to dirt, Weaver is 22% Turf to dirt maidens and the horse galloped out well. Only negative is the odds won’t be great in a 7 horse field.
2nd #3 Dial Me Up-Flashed speed running 2nd in debut last 11/29 at Aqu & hasn’t been seen since. She’s been here a month training for her return.
3rd #2 Yes to Mischief-Debuts for Casse off a series of steady works.

5th
1st #5 Dark Money-Rudy brings him back 2nd off a Feb-June layoff where he won his return, wins another.
2nd #4 Big Engine We haven’t seen him since January when he was running 2nd to Dark Money.
3rd #8 The Caretaker -Was claimed by Morley, laid off almost 4 months & came back a winner, can repeat.

6th
1st #1 Bayern’s Mirage-Bombs away with a horse returning to turf, a surface he failed on last year in July at Belmont. Hasn’t been seen since getting trounced on dirt last November. Has one of the worst trainers on the grounds, 82 year old Bob Dunham, who should have retired 20 years ago. Still, this horse is a breeding standout for a turf sprint and if he ever runs to his pedigree will light up the board. Not for the faint of heart.
2nd #5 Point of Honor Another bomb who has one of the worst jockeys on the grounds, Heman Harkie. If these 2 run 1-2 you’ll have to sign to get your exacta paid.
3rd #9 Propensity -If you can’t stomach the top 2, it’s Mott & Johnny V to the rescue, or you can take #2b Grandmas Favorite off an almost 2 year layoff for Wesley Ward.

7th
1st #1 Astoria Kitten Looks to be the lone speed, loose on an uncontested lead for Gargan/Irad.
2nd #9 Summer At the Spa- If he lags behind like last time he’s never going to catch #1, but his sheet # was 2 points faster than my top choice-main danger.
3rd #4 Minit Maus -If Sciacca is going to win a race this meet, this horse might be his best shot.
4th #3Pecatonia -Has the best top sheet # in this field, big threat 2nd off the layoff

8th
1st #3 Beautiful Memories Jogged by 10 at 2/5 in her debut & has been working like a champ at Churchill since.
2nd #8 Hopeful Princess-won her debut for Big John Hancock at Churchill then was privately purchased by Stonestreet & given to Asmussen to train.
#4 Quinoa Tifah-ships here off a good figure 4.5f win at GP last April. Wouldn’t be a complete surprise.

9th:
1st #7 Caracaro-Delgado isn’t here to escape Florida (if they let him out). Jogged in his 2nd race last January & hasn’t raced since, but he’s working like a wild horse down at GP West and gets Javier.
2nd # 6 Mystic Guide Tuned up for this in a Belmont allowance where he ran 2nd. Gets Jose Ortiz.
3rd #2 Country Grammer ran behind #6 finishing 3rd in his last.

10th
1st #8 Summer Fortune-Turf sprint bred filly moves to the surface she was bred for. Wire to wire for Miah/Irad.
2nd #12 Shannon Girl -6 seconds in 15 tries. Seldom wins but usually hits the board. #6 Alley to Cavalry-The only 5 year old in the race is 2nd off a layoff.

Bonus picks Turf Only Day 2 7/17
5th
1st #7 Scuttlebuzz-Just missed going 6f a month ago in turf debut. Thomas is 6/13 with turf maidens going sprint to route.
2nd #9 Neuro- Didn’t show much last year & hasn’t been out since November, but is well bred for turf routes. The biggest problem is trainer Ribaudo is only 1/28 on greater than 180 day layoffs over the last 5 years.
3rd #2 Voliero-Ran 2nd last out & could be in the mix.

10th
1st #1 K.K.Ichikawa-2nd time for Nevin who rarely wins 1st out, gets Lasix, well bred for this.
2nd #12 The Postmaster-Trainer Serpe is 0/19 off 180 day layoffs but last year came off a 10 month layoff and ran 2nd, only beaten by ½ length. Solid contender despite the over 1 year layoff.
3rd #11 True Grace-Clement returns this one to turf 2nd off the layoff & stretches this one out. The horse’s mother has been productive producing turf routers, but the sire is only 1/19 for his turf horses.
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Old 07-14-2020, 12:05 PM   #2
RunDustyRun
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Thanks for your comments on the card...think the horse in the ninth will take all kinds of money but like you I prefer the and think the could also jump up and surprise

Any thoughts as to what the odds will end up on the in the eighth race? I'm thinking even money would be an absolute gift but worry that she will be way below that...
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Old 07-14-2020, 02:40 PM   #3
capitalman
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Beautiful Memories won't be bettable on her own (1/2). I'm looking to use her in multi-race bets only.
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