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Old 05-07-2017, 04:14 PM   #31
pandy
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I was going to say something similar. Looking At Lee is a powerful argument against the ability of the closers here. If it was so horrible for closers, how did an absolute plodder hit the board like that?
I was wondering the same thing, however, Looking At Lee stayed along the inside part of the track most of the race. Even the chart comment reads that he "was skimming the rail."The closers that rallied wide may have been hindered by the track condition.
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Old 05-07-2017, 05:11 PM   #32
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Yes I'm saying sharp and profitable handicappers historically play against a horse that essentially went wire-to-wire on a golden rail and speed biased track coupled with his top competitors all colliding with each other at the break.
IMO...the "sharp and profitable handicappers" remain "sharp and profitable" because they don't do ANYTHING "historically". Every race has a unique nature...and has to be looked at as a solitary event -- with unique characteristics. The same "perfect trip" argument against Always Dreaming was proposed after his Florida Derby victory...but this didn't prevent the "perfect trip" from materializing again in the Derby.

The most important determination to make ISN'T in criticizing the "perfect trip" that a particular horse enjoyed in a given race. It's in determining whether or not substantial factors exist which could prevent this "perfect trip" from occurring again NEXT TIME.
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Old 05-07-2017, 05:55 PM   #33
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IMO...the "sharp and profitable handicappers" remain "sharp and profitable" because they don't do ANYTHING "historically". Every race has a unique nature...and has to be looked at as a solitary event -- with unique characteristics. The same "perfect trip" argument against Always Dreaming was proposed after his Florida Derby victory...but this didn't prevent the "perfect trip" from materializing again in the Derby.

The most important determination to make ISN'T in criticizing the "perfect trip" that a particular horse enjoyed in a given race. It's in determining whether or not substantial factors exist which could prevent this "perfect trip" from occurring again NEXT TIME.
This is a very good post.

Seizing control of a race may be a "perfect trip", but it is also what dominant horses do.
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Old 05-07-2017, 06:20 PM   #34
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Every god damned "expert" I read was talking about how much energy this horse was expending and how he was acting up all the time. Wasn't settling in to the new surroundings, ect. Jesus.
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Old 05-07-2017, 07:27 PM   #35
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Every god damned "expert" I read was talking about how much energy this horse was expending and how he was acting up all the time. Wasn't settling in to the new surroundings, ect. Jesus.
And Pletcher switched bits and exercise riders which frankly is ballsy this close to the Derby.

He did something radical and was rewarded.
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Old 05-07-2017, 09:15 PM   #36
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In my opinion Classic Empire was the best horse in the race. He got totally wiped out at the start and rallied behind the big field to get up for 4th. The winner had a trouble free trip.
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Old 05-07-2017, 11:13 PM   #37
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In my opinion Classic Empire was the best horse in the race. He got totally wiped out at the start and rallied behind the big field to get up for 4th. The winner had a trouble free trip.

Hopefully they'll both race in the Preakness. The Preakness is becoming a joke, so many horses skip it.
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Old 05-07-2017, 11:48 PM   #38
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Seizing control of a race may be a "perfect trip", but it is also what dominant horses do.
Plus, as an added bonus, Always Dreaming and Johnny Velasquez came out of the Derby the most "Clean of all"...

While exchanging congrats by other Jockeys to JV, the contrast of Mud Caked Silks to the ultra Clean Silks JV, was a real eye opener, when viewing the contrast...
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Old 05-08-2017, 12:10 AM   #39
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Every god damned "expert" I read was talking about how much energy this horse was expending and how he was acting up all the time. Wasn't settling in to the new surroundings, ect. Jesus.
That is part of the reason I threw AD out..much to my dismay...I am beginning to learn not to trust both the hype and the doubts beforehand...I really think by listening to a lot of opinions, we form biases that work to "fix" our future bets into locked patterns...by forming our opinions too soon, we lock ourselves into what we BELIEVED beforehand instead of delaying until more info is available...also we must learn to think and trust OUR OWN INSIGHTS instead of listening to others all the time...
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Old 05-08-2017, 12:30 AM   #40
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That is part of the reason I threw AD out..much to my dismay...I am beginning to learn not to trust both the hype and the doubts beforehand...I really think by listening to a lot of opinions, we form biases that work to "fix" our future bets into locked patterns...by forming our opinions too soon, we lock ourselves into what we BELIEVED beforehand instead of delaying until more info is available...also we must learn to think and trust OUR OWN INSIGHTS instead of listening to others all the time...
The moment you start "liking" a horse while handicapping, you'll start making a case for it. I stay as impartial as possible as long as possible.
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Old 05-08-2017, 05:55 AM   #41
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When you factor in his trip today (slow pace on a golden rail in the slop)
State of Honor finished last while setting the slow pace on the supposed golden rail.

Slow, pace horses on golden rails don't finish last.
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Old 05-08-2017, 05:59 AM   #42
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Every god damned "expert" I read was talking about how much energy this horse was expending and how he was acting up all the time. Wasn't settling in to the new surroundings, ect. Jesus.
I told everyone to ignore it.

The horse was a loaded powder keg, he wasn't a hard to train handful.

In fact he was trained to race of the van. All he did was try to run fast the first time he stepped on Churchill after the ship. Just like he had done in every one of his races this year.
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Old 05-08-2017, 08:10 AM   #43
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And Pletcher switched bits and exercise riders which frankly is ballsy this close to the Derby.

He did something radical and was rewarded.
I didn't hear that he switched bits. He put on draw reins and another exercise rider (guessing one experienced with using draw reins).
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Old 05-08-2017, 09:16 AM   #44
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Actually, the race went 2-17-3-13-8-15-14-12 (4f's to wire) for the top 8.Closers, clearly, weren't compromised.

My issue with this race is that, other than Lookin at Lee, NOTHING gained the last call against the winner in a dawdling 26.32. In fact, LAL was the only horse to gain the 1st 8th of that last split. And this is after they ran 26.15 for the previous quarter.
I think we actually agree.

I am very interested in where various horses came from in the field, but I am also interested in how many front runners were in the race, where horses finished relative to my estimation of their ability going in, and the fractions of the race.

The race was loaded with on the pace horses (some that figured to be compromised) and the fractions were unquestionably fast relative to the final time on that slow track. Typically, in an somewhat evenly matched field like this, the closers WOULD HAVE made up some ground in that slow last quarter and been more threatening. That they didn't is exactly the point I was trying to make in my post.

I guess there are lot of possible reason for that. In a big field like that everyone gets full of mud, several lost a lot of ground, some may not have liked the track, etc.. That's all speculation. My point is that given the fractions, there were several horses that in my estimation should have at least been able to pick up Battle of Midway who was right on the pace initially and then just off it, but they did not despite the fact that he was tiring badly.

The only closer that really even threatened was, as you said, Lookin at Lee who saved a ton of ground. IMO, he was not one of the highest quality closers in the race. That's says something.
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Old 05-08-2017, 09:46 AM   #45
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I didn't hear that he switched bits. He put on draw reins and another exercise rider (guessing one experienced with using draw reins).
You are correct as noted by the NBC crew on two different occasions.
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