Morning Line Pick Stats

[Ray2000]

If you bet the Morning Line Pick in every race....
Ties on lowest ML went to the inside horse, scratches removed.

Miami and Dayton at the bottom, ...I knew it

			
 Track 	 Races 	 Win% 	 ROI 
FHLD	 814 	42.1%	 0.847 
HAR	 864 	41.6%	 0.825 
NFLD	 2,850 	41.3%	 0.826 
FRD	 447 	39.8%	 0.872 
MR	 1,644 	39.3%	 0.779 
BR	 822 	39.2%	 0.864 
STGA	 1,803 	38.8%	 0.843 
DD	 989 	38.7%	 0.817 
PRC	 1,002 	38.7%	 0.839 
BigM	 912 	38.5%	 0.873 
BTVA	 775 	38.2%	 0.861 
LON	 958 	38.0%	 0.829 
ACES	 483 	37.3%	 0.816 
MOH	 1,350 	37.1%	 0.887* 
PCD	 1,798 	36.8%	 0.835 
PHL	 1,904 	36.4%	 0.813 
PPK	 929 	36.4%	 0.748 
MEA	 2,087 	36.2%	 0.857 
YR	 2,316 	36.0%	 0.849 
RIDC	 607 	35.3%	 0.722 
SCD	 1,093 	34.7%	 0.850 
TGDN	 619 	34.4%	 0.878 
HOP	 1,988 	33.6%	 0.776 
WDB	 621 	33.3%	 0.860 
FLMD	 1,030 	32.9%	 0.721 
VD	 822 	32.6%	 0.812 
MVR	 820 	32.3%	 0.800 
CALX	 476 	31.9%	 0.701 
DTN	 895 	30.7%	 0.807 
			
Ave		36.6%	 0.821 
*Top ROI

[sharkey11]

i have an idea on this try filtering the results you have to only include ml fav. as an overlay of diffrent odds ie. ml fav 2-1 and going off at say 3-1 . just a thought

[Ray2000]

Interesting idea but I don't have the odds the ML fave went off at when they lost.

Someday I'm going to breakdown and buy the charts

[LottaKash]

Thanks so much Ray, for the refresher...

[sharkey11]

not a problem what you have given just makes me think about subsets in the stats you provide for us and a big thanks to you

[Murph]

Originally Posted by Ray2000

Interesting idea but I don't have the odds the ML fave went off at when they lost.

Someday I'm going to breakdown and buy the charts

Can you parse the USTA charts? I have not tried this yet but have considered the question. The trackmaster chart files are really nice but kind of pricey. Is there an option to purchase them outside of Equibase?

[Ray2000]

Originally Posted by Murph

Can you parse the USTA charts?

I did this a few years back but it's a big pain in the ***
I never found a way to collect the charts, which are available for the current 2 weeks, automatically.
Had to get them manually one by one daily,

The Canadian charts are saved when the robot gets the wager results.

If the charts are saved as Excel file types "xls" then the macro in the attached file can parse the info to an Excel worksheet.
I have a version for Canada if wanted.

The macro in this workbook is sloppy at best, never cleaned it up.
It's just an example of parsing the charts. If you want to try it you'll need to change the file type to "xlsm"

Self interest use only!

[Murph]

Originally Posted by Ray2000

I did this a few years back but it's a big pain in the ***
I never found a way to collect the charts, which are available for the current 2 weeks, automatically.
Had to get them manually one by one daily,

The Canadian charts are saved when the robot gets the wager results.

If the charts are saved as Excel file types "xls" then the macro in the attached file can parse the info to an Excel worksheet.
I have a version for Canada if wanted.

The macro in this workbook is sloppy at best, never cleaned it up.
It's just an example of parsing the charts. If you want to try it you'll need to change the file type to "xlsm"

Self interest use only!

Thank you Ray. This example helps me out. I'm working on pasting up a large PP type xml file. I'll get some ides on how to work a results table in there.

I'm not having the best of luck to use the xml file conversions. It's been like making a 7 layer cake. I can really mess it up. I'm going to keep tying.

[pacer]

Hi Ray

How do you get the b ubbles ex 5/*1H in excel much appreciate your response.



Thanks

[Ray2000]

That depends on which pieces of information in the text string you're after, (or maybe all 3)
1. Call
2. Lengths behind
3. Racing wide

By using formulas in a new column(field), the Call would be
after substituting "" for "°"

=Value(LEFT(ref,FIND("/",ref)-1))..........ref is to the cells like "5/°1H"

Lengths behind would be similar using the right hand portion of the string and substituting ".5" for "H" . . ".25" for "Q" and so on.

The bubbles ° can be found the same way, using the "Find" formula.

This can also be done in the VBA code.


BTW

I do this for pplines in the race program where TM uses those crazy chars for fractional lengths.
(Can't post the chars with this Forum's font)

=VALUE(IF(OR(AT2="nk",AT2="hd",AT2="ns"),0.01,
IF(RIGHT(AT2,1)="?",SUBSTITUTE(AT2,"?",".25"),
IF(RIGHT(AT2,1)="?",SUBSTITUTE(AT2,"?",".5"),
IF(RIGHT(AT2,1)="?",SUBSTITUTE(AT2,"?",".75"),
IF(AT2="ds",20,AT2))))))

[Jess Hawsen Arown]

Note: The Meadowlands recently changed computerized morning line to Dave Brower.

Speaking of Dave Brower, one must question either his integrity or his competence regarding the winner of the 9th race last night at The Meadowlands, IAMMRBRIGHTSIDE N. His comment on the horse's Meadowlands qualifier was that he dropped a lot of time (irrelevant since his first qualifier was on a 46 degree, minus 1 morning at Monticello). He added that he will "take the wait and see approach" while not picking him in the top 4 while making the horse 15-1 morning line. Really?

He qualified in 1:53:4, 17 1/2 lengths behind the winner pacing the last quarter in a subdued 29:2 while facing a field of 1:51 or better pacers. While his very fast down under races might offer some consideration, the seemingly awful qualifier might cause one to wait and see.

Now I cannot verify that Brower watched the qualifier, but to the best of my knowledge, he rarely if ever misses them, especially that he is now on the Meadowlands payroll.

Well, just for giggles, I watched the qualifier (available on the Meadowlands website) and could not wait to bet the horse after seeing it. Turns out the horse fading from second went off stride pushing the third place horse wide and IAMMRBRIGHTSIDE N, sitting 4th, was pushed even wider while on the move and made an uncharted interference break.

Oh boy, 15-1 morning line, we are going to make a score. Yet despite the morning line, the pathetic qualifying line and the negative words from the professional who saw the qualifier, the horse paid a tepid 9-2.

Brower did not do his job properly or he withheld information from the betting public -- especially since replays are available, even in the unlikely event he missed it live. I don't know which one. But there are no other options.

[sharkey11]

well number 1 he works for the track so he probaly dosent bet or is prohibited from it and sounds like he was darkening the horse for himself and a beard to wager on it number 2 no profesinal will tell you very much about what and why he will bet .number 3 hes a writer and makes income from books ect.so hes probaly just a good amature that does not make his living from bets only.rember this is the good ol USA land of double standards

[pandy]

Originally Posted by sharkey11

well number 1 he works for the track so he probaly dosent bet or is prohibited from it and sounds like he was darkening the horse for himself and a beard to wager on it number 2 no profesinal will tell you very much about what and why he will bet .number 3 hes a writer and makes income from books ect.so hes probaly just a good amature that does not make his living from bets only.rember this is the good ol USA land of double standards

Dave Brower would never intentionally try to deceive the public. He simply didn't like that horse for whatever reason. If anyone wants to criticize him for not including the horse, fine, but he didn't leave the horse out because of any conspiracy theory. As for the 15-1 line he put on the horse, it was simply a bad line. I made the horse the 5-2 second choice.

[sharkey11]

hey lets face it the guy what ever he is or isnt works for the track and i as a bettor or customer as its said i am the enemy to any one who works for a track just because of that .they are not there to help just to collect a pay check and custmers are the meat thats eaten at the dinner table . this is not a very funny thing just because they basicly have no custmers and that because they have served us all so well this attude that side buisness have that lets all keep smiling an have a happy face is just fine for them but the tracks an there owners have destroyed racing i could go on an on but i think you get the jest of it . and sir if you can prove to me that what i said is false then i will hand it to you . anyway gl as always

[pandy]

Originally Posted by sharkey11

hey lets face it the guy what ever he is or isnt works for the track and i as a bettor or customer as its said i am the enemy to any one who works for a track just because of that .they are not there to help just to collect a pay check and custmers are the meat thats eaten at the dinner table . this is not a very funny thing just because they basicly have no custmers and that because they have served us all so well this attude that side buisness have that lets all keep smiling an have a happy face is just fine for them but the tracks an there owners have destroyed racing i could go on an on but i think you get the jest of it . and sir if you can prove to me that what i said is false then i will hand it to you . anyway gl as always

I could not disagree with you more. You don't think he cares about the customers? Do you think that all track handicappers are just there for the paycheck? What about Andy Serling?

I know Dave Brower and he certainly cares about the fans and bettors, as does Justin Horowitz, and Ken Warkentin. Overall, the Meadowlands does a better job than most tracks when it comes to protecting the bettors. On their race reviews, they have comments from trainers. I've used these comments to hit several bets this year. The Meadowlands also bars well known drug trainers.

I don't know who you are but frankly I'm don't understand why you feel this way. And, by the way, use spell check, your spelling is terrible.