Florida Derby

[boys at tosconova]

state of honor takes off the blinks. i don;t know how i feel about that. on one hand they're trying to possibly get more by racing a little differently, and on the other hand he might be compromised because of it

when i look at him i view him as a horse that isn't getting better, or give you any indication that he will be better.

[boys at tosconova]

i get the feeling that the pletcher camp is only worried about gunnavera. there also seems to be a quiet confidence about always dreaming as well.

i never pay too much attention to works and drool over them, but the horse looks very determined and all business.

his last race he prolly could have won by 10L if he wanted to

[Robert Fischer]

Highest% 'churn' bet may actually be 'Place' on 4.
'Win' on 4 is also a great bet.

Tempting are the vertical exotics...
1 is a stone-cold 'Key'. He's a legitimate horse to finish in the top four, if this race will run on the moon, but with his forward position and inside post draw, this is a big opportunity. 8-1 is generous, and you don't really have to use him on top.
7 is a big long shot who you want to 'double-Key' along with 1.
To cut down on bet-size, I'm looking to occupy 3rd&4th slot with the double-key.

Wager Menu game plan:

4 singled in multis.
PLACE on 4

Supers
4/1/6781011/All
4/6781011/1/All
4/6781011/6781011/1
4/16781011/167/167


1. State of Honor, Mark Casse, Julien Leparoux, 8-1
2. Talk Logistics, Eddie Plesa Jr., Joe Bravo, 30-1
3. Charlie the Greek, Mikhail Yanakov, Leonel Reyes, 50-1
4. Always Dreaming, Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez, 4-1
5. Quinentos, Enrique A. Sanchez, Carlos Montalvo, 50-1
6. Coleman Rocky, Gustavo Delgado, Jose Ortiz, 30-1
7. Unbridled Holiday, Patrick Biancone, Nik Juarez, 30-1
8. Impressive Edge, Dale Romans, Corey Lanerie, 12-1
9. Battalion Runner, Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez, 3-1
10. Three Rules, Jose Pinchin, Luis Saez, 8-1
11. Gunnevera, Antonio Sano, Javier Castellano, 9-5

[rsetup]

, Three Rules: the three horses chasing him in the FOY ended up at the rear of the pack. Don't see the 1 staying with him early. If the 4 tries to run with him, race probably collapses.

, Gunnevera: couldn't have gotten a more perfect trip wiping them out in the FOY. But he also ran well enough to be the only horse not wiped out in the Holy Bull.


, Always Dreaming: no idea what this horse is going to do. Have to respect Pletcher at GP. Didn't look at the TAM race but his SAR race was very impressive. Crawled early and then picked it up late last out. If they try to send, dropping the 10 and holding off the 11 will require some effort.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Florida Derby 4/1/17
GP14

Odds
=Less than 10-1
=10-1, Multiples of 10-1
Morning Line Favorite
....]=End of Morning Line

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[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by rsetup

, Three Rules: the three horses chasing him in the FOY ended up at the rear of the pack. Don't see the 1 staying with him early. If the 4 tries to run with him, race probably collapses.

that's a good point. but i really get the impression that the 4 will be doing everything in his power to let somebody else control the pace.

in doing this there is a possibility that three rules will get away loose on the front in a leisurely fashion. the 1 taking of the blinks might result in slower fractions as well

[Mr. Pick 5]

overall im looking at the florida derby card and finding it pretty hard to bet in general...to say it looks like its going to be an extremely chalky day is an understatement...this ofcourse capped by the florida derby where it is extremely hard to see past the and more than likely it will be gunnevera at 6 to 5 or the pletcher at 2 to 1

[Spalding No!]

Impressive Edge is related to both the sire of Arrogate and the sire of California Chrome. Unbridled's Song and Lucky Pulpit were out of 3/4 sisters (Trolley Song and Lucky Soph). The granddam was Lucky Spell.

Lucky Spell is Impressive Edge's 4th dam. He is also one of 3 colts sired by the late Harlan's Holiday in the race.

Impressive Edge had a weird trip in the Swale, settling in last before an ill-timed mid race burst of speed onto the heels of the leaders. Shuffled back but rallied again with a quick move to the rail heading into the stretch only to labor to switch leads and then not persevered with. Came back with a sharp allowance score over 7f. Tough spot to stretch out though.

[LottaKash]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Impressive Edge had a weird trip in the Swale, settling in last before an ill-timed mid race burst of speed onto the heels of the leaders. Shuffled back but rallied again with a quick move to the rail heading into the stretch only to labor to switch leads and then not persevered with. Came back with a sharp allowance score over 7f. Tough spot to stretch out though.

Without the PP's I have no clue what is going on for the Florida Derby, but, as an aside, I like that Impressive Edge had a really interesting tuneup before he clicked in the Alwc-race that came next for him...No doubt he was shooting for that...

I like horses that try more than once in an event...Shows heart at least...Only the best and great ones have that..

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by rsetup

, Three Rules: the three horses chasing him in the FOY ended up at the rear of the pack. Don't see the 1 staying with him early. If the 4 tries to run with him, race probably collapses.

, Gunnevera: couldn't have gotten a more perfect trip wiping them out in the FOY. But he also ran well enough to be the only horse not wiped out in the Holy Bull.


, Always Dreaming: no idea what this horse is going to do. Have to respect Pletcher at GP. Didn't look at the TAM race but his SAR race was very impressive. Crawled early and then picked it up late last out. If they try to send, dropping the 10 and holding off the 11 will require some effort.

Sharp analysis.
I agree that Three Rules is a better horse than State Of Honor. I'm betting on the probability of either ground-loss, or premature energy usage with Three Rules, (as well as much of the field vs. State of Honor).
On that same wave, in spite of both being 'speeds', I don't feel they are mutually exclusive.
Ideally, SOH 'plays' the first turn, and high-cruises, sucking-up near the lead to hit the board. SOH seems less likely to be pace-dependent.

Gunnervera is solid. If a decent 1st-turn, and 4 disappoints, could tackle the pace fairly easily.

[rsetup]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Sharp analysis.
I agree that Three Rules is a better horse than State Of Honor. I'm betting on the probability of either ground-loss, or premature energy usage with Three Rules, (as well as much of the field vs. State of Honor).
On that same wave, in spite of both being 'speeds', I don't feel they are mutually exclusive.
Ideally, SOH 'plays' the first turn, and high-cruises, sucking-up near the lead to hit the board. SOH seems less likely to be pace-dependent.

Gunnervera is solid. If a decent 1st-turn, and 4 disappoints, could tackle the pace fairly easily.

I needed SOH in the Macho Man and got skunked. He couldn't beat Pletcher's 2nd stringer. His TAM races are ok and I wouldn't be surprised if he got a piece. I'll certainly use him in tri's. But the is just a stickout chart play. And even if he doesn't get it done, I think the has potential to be a nice horse. Jury is out for me on the . No idea what he's capable of.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by rsetup

... Jury is out for me on the . No idea what he's capable of.

4's last race was a dream trip, but he rated well, and showed good fundamentals. Unbridled Holiday ran just as well per the charts.
From 4's body of work, I feel he's also quite talented.

[f2tornado]

Can the improve about 4 seconds (20 lengths) from his last race, assuming we see the typical FL Derby run in around 1:49 and change? This combined with his 5.00 DI, and potential speed duel with the and makes it real hard for me to bite on this one. It seemingly sets up well for the favorite if healthy. Perhaps some quirky horse hits the board if there is a bona fide pace meltdown.

[Mc990]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Can the improve about 4 seconds (20 lengths) from his last race, assuming we see the typical FL Derby run in around 1:49 and change? This combined with his 5.00 DI, and potential speed duel with the and makes it real hard for me to bite on this one. It seemingly sets up well for the favorite if healthy. Perhaps some quirky horse hits the board if there is a bona fide pace meltdown.

I don't think he needs to improve 20 lengths (even based on final time of his last race). Gunnevera won last out in just over 1:44 and that got a monster figure (probably a knockout number to be honest). I set the over/under closer to 1:51 to win this race.

I'm normally the guy who says "but the horse hasn't run fast enough yet" but everything about this race screams easy win for the 4. The 11 has to bounce, they'll be scraping the 10 off the track turning for home and everyone else seems an also-ran or a non-contender

[señorclipclop]

Always Dreaming has been an absolute tortoise in the early going in his route races, I can't back a horse that went 58-54/112 on the lead at Gulfstream in a race that expects to be much faster throughout.

That said he fits the profile of a Pletcher horse that wins the Florida Derby and is never seen again.