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12-10-2014, 07:48 PM
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#1
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 25,607
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Impossible task: Overcoming Penn Nat tri takeout
Maybe the Tri takeout is 99%
Look at tonight's 4th race.
You have a 9 horse field, which means 504 possible tri combinations. Or, a 252 50 cent wager if you box all 9.
168 if you throw out 1 horse and box 8 of the 9
Ok, so lets say you toss the 32-1 shot and box the other 8.
The winner was a 14-1 shot, the race was WIDE open otherwise, there was a 2-1 favorite who was off the board.
The winning Tri for 50 cents?
61.50
That means if you spent the 168 and boxed the field minus one, you got the horse who was the 2nd longest shot in the race (tied with another runner) and you weren't even really close to recouping 50% of your bet. In fact, you almost got a THIRD.
So, your box em up strategy was at least mildly successful, you got the favorite off the board, you got a bomb on top and you basically lost 60% of your investment.
Is there something i'm missing? How could you not at least come close to breaking even on that bet?
Last edited by Stillriledup; 12-10-2014 at 07:51 PM.
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12-10-2014, 07:55 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,735
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do that and live in a state that doesn't let you itemize, you are really gone.
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12-10-2014, 08:00 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,736
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well, the show finisher was part of an entry and both place and show were well bet compared to their M/Ls...I'm sure that implied a tilted tri pool that blunted payoffs. But jeez...you see 14-1 on top and expect...SOMETHING
Last edited by elhelmete; 12-10-2014 at 08:10 PM.
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12-10-2014, 08:28 PM
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#4
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 25,607
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by elhelmete
well, the show finisher was part of an entry and both place and show were well bet compared to their M/Ls...I'm sure that implied a tilted tri pool that blunted payoffs. But jeez...you see 14-1 on top and expect...SOMETHING
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Right? Do you need a 20 horse field with three 20-1s finishing 1-2-3 to get more than 100 bucks for 50 cents, my god.
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12-10-2014, 09:49 PM
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#5
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 25,607
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Comparing Race 4 to Race 9:
Race Four: 9 horse field: 14-1 over 3-1 over 4-1 paid 61.50
Race nine: 8 horse field: 5-1 over 7-5 over 6-1 paid 49.55
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12-10-2014, 09:56 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,546
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IMO...the problem with the trifecta payoffs at PENN isn't the takeout. It's the past-post wagering.
__________________
Live to play another day.
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12-10-2014, 10:44 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: MILWAUKEE
Posts: 5,285
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WOULD IT REALLY BE A BAD DEAL IF THE TRACKS MADE THE HUBS CLOSE OUT AT 3-5 MIN TO POST?
__________________
Never tell your problems to anyone because 20% flat don't care and 80% are glad they are yours.
No Balls.......No baby!
Have you ever noticed that those who do not have a pot to piss in nor a window to throw it out of always seem to know how to handle the money of those who do.
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12-10-2014, 11:37 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 1,178
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by HUSKER55
WOULD IT REALLY BE A BAD DEAL IF THE TRACKS MADE THE HUBS CLOSE OUT AT 3-5 MIN TO POST?
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Probably not but the one edge I think I have (and I dont have many) over the majority of players is that I have my win bet up as they are approaching the gate. If I see a horse really acting up, sweating a lot or breaking through the gate, I cancel my bet.
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12-10-2014, 11:54 PM
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#9
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 25,607
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by HUSKER55
WOULD IT REALLY BE A BAD DEAL IF THE TRACKS MADE THE HUBS CLOSE OUT AT 3-5 MIN TO POST?
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Just have separate pools, that way, bettors who want to know they won't go from 3-1 to 8-5 at the top of the lane (like Browneyed Bachelor did today in the 5th at Hawthorne) can know for sure the final price.
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12-10-2014, 11:56 PM
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#10
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 25,607
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by thaskalos
IMO...the problem with the trifecta payoffs at PENN isn't the takeout. It's the past-post wagering.
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The guys with the open window there need to not be so greedy, they need to take less.
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12-11-2014, 12:02 AM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: pen
Posts: 4,578
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with 31% takeout could we at least get hand towels back in the clubhouse and mountainview bathrooms??? 
WHAT IS WRONG WITH THIS PLACE?
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12-11-2014, 12:04 AM
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#12
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 25,607
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by proximity
with 31% takeout could we at least get hand towels back in the clubhouse and mountainview bathrooms???
WHAT IS WRONG WITH THIS PLACE? |
Only 31%, not 99? 
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12-11-2014, 01:25 AM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2001
Posts: 1,911
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Stillriledup
Just have separate pools, that way, bettors who want to know they won't go from 3-1 to 8-5 at the top of the lane (like Browneyed Bachelor did today in the 5th at Hawthorne) can know for sure the final price.
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Last odds change was 13 seconds into the race, about a furlong out of the gate.
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12-11-2014, 05:23 AM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 660
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Japan do close the tote pools for betting about 2 minutes before the advertised start time for the race
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12-11-2014, 06:41 AM
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#15
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Racing Form Detective
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Lincoln, Ne but my heart is at Santa Anita
Posts: 16,316
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by HUSKER55
WOULD IT REALLY BE A BAD DEAL IF THE TRACKS MADE THE HUBS CLOSE OUT AT 3-5 MIN TO POST?
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That means you would have to be on-track to take advantage of this. and then you could only bet the track you are at. I don't very many posters here want that.
__________________
Some day in the not too distant future, horse players will betting on computer generated races over the net. Race tracks will become casinos and shopping centers. And some crooner will be belting out "there used to be a race track here".
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