Maidens -- Quinn style discussion

[Capper Al]

Get your Quinn book out, 'Bet with the Best' or 'The Handicapper's Condition Book, We start with Quinn's take on Maidens and add our two cents worth of comment here in the Handicapper's Corner. If it goes well with maidens we'll on to claimers, allowance, stakes etc in their own threads.

Quinn, from 'Bet with the Best', likes the following:

1. Experienced maidens that equaled or exceeded par.
2. first-time starters who satisfy the acceptable standards of sire performance, trainer performance, and workouts.
3. second starters

He then discusses track class in the case of shippers as a class drop situation play. What's your experience with maidens?

[illinoisbred]

I'm generally very suspicious of debuters that run a huge figure....think 3rd starters by and large, as the easiest to assess...if surface and distance remains the same have a difficult time taking any beyond their 6th start into serious consideration.

[Johnny V]

Quinn's ideas I would think are valid statistically and have been out there for a long while. I use to like second starters that on the surface did not look like they ran a good race at first glance and the figure they ran to in that first race is not too far below the best figures of the other runners. They will often jump up and run a very much improved speed figure and win.These ideas certainly work but they sometimes get bet pretty hard now.
I used to use a method very similar to what Dave Schwartz mentioned in one of his web seminars using workouts. I did not use that workout time chart like he mentioned but if a first time starter had the best workout in the last few months or so of any other horse in there I would bet that first time starter. The odds are sometimes very good and I would bet him to win and put him underneath those other more obvious factor guys (usually a favorite) in the exacta.
I say used to because I don't usually bet maidens as much anymore but that is what I looked at then and still do whenever I do play them now.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Like Johnny V,I like 2nd starters a cut below in final time.The big 1st outs will get bet to hell anyway.But not if they are changing surface or distance,unless there is a tipoff in breeding or can be deciphered from works,ie mile work etc.

New pace tops or largest pace figure in the field,a cut below in final time,especially on droppers.Being in the lead at the 2nd call gives these horses a head full of steam.The improved pace figure can result in a faster final time next out(Fotias).

Horses with 5 starts or less.You can usually see the evolution in them and they aren't always overbet.

In Ohio,1st starter horses even modestly bred in Kentucky with decent workouts.I get about a handful of these types every year and they pay 5-1 and up.

Route to sprint.If they have a competitive final time they usually have a hard stretch punch.

Droppers/Shippers.Or even better a horse exiting a race that was faster than any of it's competitors have competed in,provided they contested it mildly at some point.I had a horse at Beulah coming from Hoosier racing for a similar tag.The Beulah horses were in races with 30's figures.The Hoosier horse in races with 50's figs,even though statebred.It's final time was a cut below the field.Won at 10-1.

I guess overall I'm looking at horses who don't appear to be as fast as it's competition,but have an angle that can result in a major improvement.

[Tom]

Let's talk real time.
Aqu Sunday, Race 3 - MSW, 2yos going long.

How do you cap this one......(I'll post mine later - after dinner)

[Shemp Howard]

I don't always play maidens. But when I do, I prefer MSW 2nd race starters going at least one extra furlong.

[appistappis]

"I guess overall I'm looking at horses who don't appear to be as fast as it's competition,but have an angle that can result in a major improvement"

This is a huge part in finding overlays in maiden races. Well said.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by illinoisbred

I'm generally very suspicious of debuters that run a huge figure....think 3rd starters by and large, as the easiest to assess...if surface and distance remains the same have a difficult time taking any beyond their 6th start into serious consideration.

Agree. It's a different game than just the best speed figure.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by Johnny V

Quinn's ideas I would think are valid statistically and have been out there for a long while. I use to like second starters that on the surface did not look like they ran a good race at first glance and the figure they ran to in that first race is not too far below the best figures of the other runners. They will often jump up and run a very much improved speed figure and win.These ideas certainly work but they sometimes get bet pretty hard now.
I used to use a method very similar to what Dave Schwartz mentioned in one of his web seminars using workouts. I did not use that workout time chart like he mentioned but if a first time starter had the best workout in the last few months or so of any other horse in there I would bet that first time starter. The odds are sometimes very good and I would bet him to win and put him underneath those other more obvious factor guys (usually a favorite) in the exacta.
I say used to because I don't usually bet maidens as much anymore but that is what I looked at then and still do whenever I do play them now.

This game is interesting in the fact that it isn't out right statistics. The stats may be valid, but it is more how they get interpreted for today's race that counts. You seem to understand maidens. Why not play them more?

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

Like Johnny V,I like 2nd starters a cut below in final time.The big 1st outs will get bet to hell anyway.But not if they are changing surface or distance,unless there is a tipoff in breeding or can be deciphered from works,ie mile work etc.

New pace tops or largest pace figure in the field,a cut below in final time,especially on droppers.Being in the lead at the 2nd call gives these horses a head full of steam.The improved pace figure can result in a faster final time next out(Fotias).

Horses with 5 starts or less.You can usually see the evolution in them and they aren't always overbet.

In Ohio,1st starter horses even modestly bred in Kentucky with decent workouts.I get about a handful of these types every year and they pay 5-1 and up.

Route to sprint.If they have a competitive final time they usually have a hard stretch punch.

Droppers/Shippers.Or even better a horse exiting a race that was faster than any of it's competitors have competed in,provided they contested it mildly at some point.I had a horse at Beulah coming from Hoosier racing for a similar tag.The Beulah horses were in races with 30's figures.The Hoosier horse in races with 50's figs,even though statebred.It's final time was a cut below the field.Won at 10-1.

I guess overall I'm looking at horses who don't appear to be as fast as it's competition,but have an angle that can result in a major improvement.

Cincy,

We play too much a like. Okay, I draw the line with MSW at 3 races or less and with MC at 6 races or less to split potential winners from losers. Of course, even to this I'll make exceptions as with anything in horse racing.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by Tom

Let's talk real time.
Aqu Sunday, Race 3 - MSW, 2yos going long.

How do you cap this one......(I'll post mine later - after dinner)

How about this one instead? Posted in another forum's contest yesterday for GP:

my selection: r10: 6-8-10

Independent selector with trackman's morning line odds:
.
#10 8.0 F (Turf) Md 35000 ($26.2K) 2yo Odds
.
9 PAPA DOC (LOPEZ) | ORSENO   12-1
6 NO CALCETINES (MOSQUEIRA) | NEGRETE  6-1
10 ZANE (VELAZQUEZ) | NIHEI	6-1
8 ARTIE OCEAN (CRUZ) | GATIS   10-1
3 ENDURING CAUSE (ROCCO) | MATZ   4-1
12 LUCKY SHOT (SAEZ) | YATES   12-1
4 BACKSEAT MEMORIES (LEZCANO) | CATALANO  7-2
7 JEB'S BREW (COHEN) | PECORARO   12-1
13 MY HOT CHILI (BOCACHICA) | TESHER 20-1
2 ANT HILL (LEYVA) | BATES   20-1
5 CANTINERO (TORRES) | WARD	8-1
11 FINGIR (RIVERA) | ARIAS	15-1
.
.
 
Results:
#6 NO CALCETINES  29.00 11.00 6.40
#8 ARTIE OCEAN		  12.20 6.20
#9 PAPA DOC		 8.20
 
.
$2 Exacta 6-8 paid $409.80 
.
. 
 
Crowd favorites: 
 
  #4  BACKSEAT MEMORIES @ 2.20/1 
  #3  ENDURING CAUSE	@ 3.30/1
  #10 ZANE	@ 4.10/1

This exacta saved the day. Both the trackman and the public selector liked #6 NO CALCETINES. Why the pubic got off it, I only thank the lord. But NO CALCETINES had proven he could run to Par and ran with a better class of horse.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by Shemp Howard

I don't always play maidens. But when I do, I prefer MSW 2nd race starters going at least one extra furlong.

The extra furlong is the clue.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by appistappis

"I guess overall I'm looking at horses who don't appear to be as fast as it's competition,but have an angle that can result in a major improvement"

This is a huge part in finding overlays in maiden races. Well said.

It is well said. It is the main idea that Quinn never talks about.

[Robert Goren]

I love to bet against horses that had an early lead in their debut and quit in the stretch. My hearth jumps with joy when I find a race with one these types who finished third and the second placed finisher is the the race. I know the front runner is going to be favored over the other horse especially if it has a big name trainer and rider. Unless there is a huge speed favoring bias going today, the second placed horse wins most of the time. I also like horses that raced on the outside through out the race or raced greenly in comment line. It is amazing how many lengths are lost in the first turn by first time starters on the outside.

[Tom]

Aqueduct Race 3 12/16/12 MSW 1m70 2yos

I'll use BRIS since most have access to these PPs.
The Pars for the race are Speed = 84, Pace 84, Late 82

No one has met the pars so far.
The 2 has an 80 and hte 5 has an 81. Within a couple lengths, so these st two are contenders.

The 2 had trouble in both his first two sprints, again, only going by the comments, not replays.
He showed improved early speed in his first route, on turf. Trainer is 19% turf to dirt, a slight improvement over his overall stats.
J/T combo is 1 for 2 over the last six. No negatives.

Dutrow brings the 5 up from Laurel after a debut going two turns where he blew past the LP par.
Gets a positive jockey change, trainer is good with second time starters, second routes races, shippers.

None of the FTS look appealing to me. The 4 has positive trainer stats for this race, but, I question the gap in works for all of October.
He had been working regularly up until then, so what happened?

the 3 and the 7 look like LS possibilities for the place if one of the top tow don't fire.

Not a real good race for prices.

W - 5
EX -5/2,3,7
EX -7/2,3,5