The Impact of Wagering Earlybird vs. Live

[Jeff P]

Dale,

You're not alone. I actually know several players who, because of time/scheduling constraints, have no choice other than to play early bird before scratches are announced. Formula2002's results showing higher roi pre scratches vs post scratches are interesting. True, his analysis involves a very specific set of horses. But the results are interesting nonetheless. He and I have had several phone conversations about this. One of the things I'm currently working on as a program update is the ability to give a JCapper user two options when building a database:

1. Remove scratched horses from consideration before number crunching is performed.

2. Include scratched horses when number crunching is performed.

Of course option #1 is the current info model for reasons already stated in this thread. But for those who, because of time/scheduling constraints, have no choice other than to wager before scratches are announced - option #2 would allow the player to perform R&D and develop models based on the environment in which he or she must play.


-jp

.

[dvlander]

Ryesteve: I had not considered that. It's a worthwhile suggestion. Thx, Dale

[dvlander]

You're not alone. I actually know several players who, because of time/scheduling constraints, have no choice other than to play early bird before scratches are announced. Formula2002's results showing higher roi pre scratches vs post scratches are interesting. True, his analysis involves a very specific set of horses. But the results are interesting nonetheless. He and I have had several phone conversations about this. One of the things I'm currently working on as a program update is the ability to give a JCapper user two options when building a database:

1. Remove scratched horses from consideration before number crunching is performed.

2. Include scratched horses when number crunching is performed.

Of course option #1 is the current info model for reasons already stated in this thread. But for those who, because of time/scheduling constraints, have no choice other than to wager before scratches are announced - option #2 would allow the player to perform R&D and develop models based on the environment in which he or she must play.


-jp

Your post is exactly why I am an enthusiastic JCapper user and supporter. That upgrade would be a godsend to someone like myself. Excellent news!

Dale

[Handicap Analysis]

does it not make some sense to continue the churn and at least take home the rebate? I think requiring higher odds would undoubtedly improve the ROI but that strategy reduces the number of plays quickly and perhaps the total profit dollars would be less than leaving things as they are.

With even a 16% win rate and 12% ROI you’re losing streaks and profit swings are going to be huge. You will have months where you will lose over $100 on a $2 bet. As long as you understand this and allow it to work several months before worrying about results you could continue with your current system. Most people cannot handle this type of losing streak without having it affect their emotions and betting decisions.

Also, you are correct about requiring higher odds, you will increase your overall ROI but you will also reduce your profit.

[andymays]

Combined with the late scratch problem paying $8 for parking is another reason not to bet early at Del Mar!

All you can do is laugh!

This is one of the things they go over on the Roger Stein show today 7-26!

Live 8:00 am PST @ http://www.rogerstein.com/

Archived Show up an hour after the show @ http://www.rogerstein.com/radio/archive2.asp