Do Horses Win Only 5% When Returning After a Scratch? - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Krudler · 11-13-2013, 05:20 AM

I've been reading the "Has Anybody Here Heard Of…." thread and it mentioned a 2008-ish or so interview with Jim Clark, Director of (the now defunct) In-Form Handicapping System. In that interview, Clark makes the following claim:

"The percentage of horses winning off a scratch…is less than 5%, so you can pretty well toss them."

I've never heard of this dismal-next-race-after-a-scratch angle. i'm wondering if anyone else has and, if so, are the percentages that low nowadays?

If you're curious, I've attached the entire article to this message.

Greyfox · 11-13-2013, 05:38 AM

That hasn't been my experience.

In So Cal horses are sometimes entered two days in a row.
Depending on the card, the trainer can scratch from day 1 and stay in day 2.
I haven't kept stats, but 5 % sounds low.

lamboguy · 11-13-2013, 07:03 AM

i would say that number is correct from many years ago, but probably not today

cj · 11-13-2013, 09:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Krudler

I've been reading the "Has Anybody Here Heard Of…." thread and it mentioned a 2008-ish or so interview with Jim Clark, Director of (the now defunct) In-Form Handicapping System. In that interview, Clark makes the following claim:

"The percentage of horses winning off a scratch…is less than 5%, so you can pretty well toss them."

I've never heard of this dismal-next-race-after-a-scratch angle. i'm wondering if anyone else has and, if so, are the percentages that low nowadays?

If you're curious, I've attached the entire article to this message.

Maybe he meant vet scratch?

horses4courses · 11-13-2013, 09:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj

Maybe he meant vet scratch?

Very good point.

There's obviously a huge difference between being forced to scratch by a vet due to some physical issue,
and connections picking and choosing engagements for their horse.

I would imagine that the winning percentage for vet scratches is far lower than other types. If you broke down scratches due to alternative engagements among a select group of savvy trainers, you might even get a decent winning percentage with a reasonable ROI.

therussmeister · 11-13-2013, 07:24 PM

As a handicapper that pays attention to vet scratches, there are two instances I can tell you where you definitely can not safely toss them.

The first is a "quick return" scratch. This is when a horse ran six or less days before being scratched. I've seen horses run one day, and then were a vet scratch the very next day at a different track. I doubt the trainer really wanted to run two days in a row, but I don't see why it had to be a vet scratch instead of a trainer scratch.

The second is when a horse has a solid five furlong workout since the scratch, or sometimes two fast four furlong workouts.

Lastly, I strongly suspect that a lot of horses that were scratched at the gate are good to go in their next start, as many gate injuries turn out to be minor. But I don't know where I could get information to confirm this hypothesis.

Krudler · 11-14-2013, 06:42 AM

Interesting thoughts. I too had thought Clark might be referencing vet scratches as the source of the low win & %age. Also, I have a hard time believing that a trainer scratch that moved a horse from say a Saturday to a Sunday card - likely a sign of positive trainer intent and a well meant horse - would result in such a low hit rate.

I've just doubled back to the article Informed (and Enriched) with In-Form Handicapping to reread Jim's thoughts. Here they are:

“We’ve been following this for seven or eight years and it’s a huge handicapping angle,” insists Clark, “A scratch board horse is one who has been scratched from a race previous to today’s race. It may have been a trainer scratch, steward scratch, vet scratch or off the turf. The percentage of horses winning off a scratch board is less than 5%, so you can pretty well toss them.”

Clearly, in his mind at the time of the article's writing, a scratch is a scratch is a scratch.

Seeing as Jim has just signed on as a PA member (he first post was in the "Has Anybody Here Heard Of…." thread), I plan on asking him to elaborate on this current thoughts on this angle.

DeltaLover · 11-14-2013, 08:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Krudler

I've been reading the "Has Anybody Here Heard Of…." thread and it mentioned a 2008-ish or so interview with Jim Clark, Director of (the now defunct) In-Form Handicapping System. In that interview, Clark makes the following claim:

"The percentage of horses winning off a scratch…is less than 5%, so you can pretty well toss them."

I've never heard of this dismal-next-race-after-a-scratch angle. i'm wondering if anyone else has and, if so, are the percentages that low nowadays?

If you're curious, I've attached the entire article to this message.

The claim that horses of the scratch are only winning 5% is wrong. Obsiously the linked article is just an ad for an approach that does not work (judging from the fact that the promoted site is no longer functional). In general, I will avoid any blanket opinion like this, especially when data are not provided. More than this, note that such a low winning frequency is very difficult to attain for any kind of a handicapping factor especially when crowd's odds are not part of it.

Saratoga_Mike · 11-14-2013, 08:57 AM

It isn't hard to get a vet scratch - I wouldn't use that as an angle.

Robert Goren · 11-14-2013, 09:50 AM

At NYRA where I bet, there seems to be several reasons for Vets Scratch. If I am watching when there is gate scratch I note why. Run off, injured in gate, etc. If I see a vets scratch and I don't why, I consider it a big negative unless I have seen the trainer win with one. This is one thing that the public either doesn't know about or ignores and therefore offers potential value.

thaskalos · 11-14-2013, 01:44 PM

Am I wrong...or are we being advised to eliminate a horse from today's race, just because it was scratched out of a race which was taken off the turf in its prior start?

I see all kinds of scratches when races are taken off the turf; am I supposed to believe that these horses are automatic throw-outs when they show up for their next start?

The attached article here is an old sales pitch reminiscent of the system peddlers of old. The guy who wrote it wouldn't even give us his full name -- choosing to initial his article instead -- and who could blame him. He misspells Ragozin's name in a passing reference to him...takes $40 with him to the track so he can try out a new, promising method...and then is seen clutching his winnings as he is heading for the elevator -- even though he had previously told us that he had "pocketed his winnings".

I wouldn't sign my name to such an article either...

BIG HIT · 11-14-2013, 02:32 PM

he did bring some thing not talked about here before.I tried it on one day you guy's defintely right aft 35 plays 6 different trks had 6 winners 4 2and but i think you can make it work for instance and i have not check this yet was chg trk drop class chg jky lower chg dist and surface.He gave the in pression he was come back with more maybe he will it was interesting read

Pensacola Pete · 11-14-2013, 03:08 PM

It depends on who scratched the horse and how long it's been away.

Trainer scratches are often the trainer looking for a better spot.

raybo · 11-15-2013, 11:48 AM

Assuming that 5% is correct, there will still be portions of that 5% that will be successful next time out, just like any other blanket statement about an "overall" percentage. In every "general" percentage I can think of, there are exceptions, and to just throw them all out is probably not advisable, and could actually cost you money by doing so.

Robert Goren · 11-15-2013, 01:38 PM

I am surprised none of the database guys have come in with a number.