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Old 12-27-2022, 09:03 AM   #31
zico20
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Finally got one right yesterday, on a game I had a weak opinion on. Record now stands at 4-12 ATS and 6-11 O/U. Damn, do we have a few head scratchers today.

Georgia Southern -4 under 67
Memphis -7 over 58.5
East Carolina -7 over 65
Oklahoma St +3.5 and the under 45


The first three are all $50 bets and $25 on the totals. The last game is $50 on Oklahoma St. and $200 on the under.

I took Georgia Southern because I am betting against the MAC team like I did yesterday. I took Memphis and East Carolina, both giving the same amount of points and both from the AAC. I think one is going to cover and the other isn't, problem is I don't know which one. Just hoping to get lucky! Coastal Carolina has gotten destroyed in their last two and even though McCall is playing, he played in the SBC game and Troy whipped their asses plus they are missing their head coach. East Carolina has covered the last 15 of 18 when favored.

I was going to take Utah St. but their top two rushers are not playing plus they are coming off a disappointing year and I think they may not have the desire to play. Memphis is trying to avoid a losing record for the first time in a decade, I hope that is enough motivation but who knows.

Both Wisconsin and Oklahoma St are missing their QBs for the game, problem is Oklahoma St. has the worse of the back ups. Wisconsin is missing their top rusher and their head coach is gone. I still say after you take out Ohio St, Michigan, and Penn St. the Big 12 is by far the better conference over the B1G. Wisconsin sucks but Oklahoma St. lost four of their last five. It won't surprise me if Wisconsin wins by double digits but I think it is going to be a very low scoring game. Every year we get at least one and sometimes three bowl games that don't get 28 points, I think this is one of them. Lets hope so!!!
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Old 12-28-2022, 06:27 AM   #32
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Military Bowl
UCF wins by 1.26pts with 56 total points and a win% of 50.5% to 49.4%
SU Pick: UCF
ATS Pick: UCF-1
O/U Pick: Under 62.5

Autozone Liberty Bowl
Arkansas wins by 6.20pts with 71 total points and a win% of 52.9% to 47.0%
SU Pick: Arkansas
ATS Pick: Arkansas-4.5
O/U Pick: Over 68.5

SDCCU Holiday Bowl
Oregon wins by 13.39pts with 76 total points and a win% of 55.5% to 44.4%
SU Pick: Oregon
ATS Pick: Oregon-12
O/U Pick: Over 71

TaxAct Texas Bowl
Ole Miss wins by 2.78pts with 65 total points and a win% of 51.1% to 48.8%
SU Pick: Ole Miss
ATS Pick: Texas Tech+4
O/U Pick: Under 69.5
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Old 12-28-2022, 10:58 AM   #33
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Good day yesterday going 2-2 ATS and 3-1 o/u. Total now is 6-14 ATS and 9-12 o/u. I hit my big bet on the under Wisconsin-Oklahoma St. game! I am still kicking myself from earlier when I backed off putting the maximum on Fresno St. I just never thought I would be 6-14 at this point or I would have. Tomorrow I will update how my bankroll has fared during the bowls. Four games on the agenda today and some interesting opinions I have.

UCF-Duke game is UCF +3.5 (see below) Under 62 $200
Kansas +3.5 $50 under 69 $50
Oregon -13.5 $50 over 75 $50
Texas Tech +4 $500 under 71.5 $100

Kansas is clearly the more motivated team but Arkansas by far the more talented team. Tough one to decide, both teams run the ball so maybe the score stays down a little, although Kansas defense is terrible. Difficult to bet big here.

I think Texas Tech wins outright, Mississippi is overrated big time! Should have put it on the money line but I didn't go that route.

I don't release what I bet other than the ATS on the game and the O/U on the game. I do make some other bets when I see something I really like so here it is. North Carolina's defense is atrocious and they are missing three of their four in the secondary. They are going to get lit up so I bet $500 on Oregon to go over 41.5 total points. I made the bet over two weeks ago and now the line is 44.5. I see Oregon scoring in the high 40's with no problem.

The UCF-Duke is a game time decision on what I bet. I still don't know if UCF's QB Plumlee is playing or not. If he is then I am putting $50 on them. If he doesn't play then I am putting $300 on Duke. UCF would be starting their third string QB who hasn't done much all season. I see another Cincinnati outcome if Plumlee doesn't play and the under is a lock if he doesn't. Plus UCF had their sights on a NY6 game and that went by the wayside by losing to Tulane so I really don't think they want to be here.
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Old 12-29-2022, 09:38 AM   #34
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Updated records as of 12/28

SU: 13-12
ATS: 12-13
O/U: 14-10-1

Here are today's bowl games

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Minnesota wins by 10.6pts with 36 total points and a win% of 54.7% to 45.2%
SU Pick: Minnesota
ATS Pick: Minnesota-7.5
O/U Pick: Under 42

Cheez-It Bowl
Florida State wins by 7.61pts with 65 total points and a win% of 53.1% to 46.8%
SU Pick: Florida State
ATS Pick: Florida State-7.5
O/U Pick: Over 65

Valero-Alamo Bowl
Texas wins by 5.96pts with 66.5 total points and a win% of 52.2% to 47.7%
SU Pick: Texas
ATS Pick: Washington+6
O/U Pick: Under 68
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Last edited by CheckMark; 12-29-2022 at 09:39 AM.
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Old 12-29-2022, 11:08 AM   #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CheckMark View Post
Updated records as of 12/28

SU: 13-12
ATS: 12-13
O/U: 14-10-1

Here are today's bowl games

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Minnesota wins by 10.6pts with 36 total points and a win% of 54.7% to 45.2%
SU Pick: Minnesota
ATS Pick: Minnesota-7.5
O/U Pick: Under 42

Cheez-It Bowl
Florida State wins by 7.61pts with 65 total points and a win% of 53.1% to 46.8%
SU Pick: Florida State
ATS Pick: Florida State-7.5
O/U Pick: Over 65

Valero-Alamo Bowl
Texas wins by 5.96pts with 66.5 total points and a win% of 52.2% to 47.7%
SU Pick: Texas
ATS Pick: Washington+6
O/U Pick: Under 68
Okay, are you fudging on the lines? All three of those ATS numbers are way off. They were accurate two weeks ago. Now if you tell me that is what they were when you bet them then I will buy that and accept it as I make several bets from over two weeks ago and the lines change.
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Old 12-29-2022, 11:25 AM   #36
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Interesting day yesterday! I got saved on the o/u on the Texas Tech game when I thought for sure Mississippi was going to score at the very end. Updated numbers are 8-16 ATS and 11-14 O/U. I am dead even so far financially but I still have two one thousand dollar bets coming over the next few days.

Syracuse +10.5 $50 and $300 under 44
Florida St. -10 $50 and $50 under 65
Texas -3 $200 and $200 under 66

Everyone is picking Minnesota to cover as the line has moved from -7 to at places -11. Syracuse is in the tank and their leading rusher declared for the draft but Minnesota struggles to score themselves. I see this as the game that doesn't hit the 28 point mark.

Oklahoma I doubt is motivated to play whereas Florida St. will be plus Oklahoma has a few opt outs.

Everyone is picking Washington to win the game outright as the line has moved from +6 to the current +3 for them. Washington has no defense and they play in the PAC which has no defense. Texas has won the last three Alamo bowls they have played in and the Big 12 has beaten the PAC 6 of 7 in the Alamo and are 9-3 overall the past 12 years. Will be like a home game for Texas. After Oregon's lucky win last night I question the strength of the PAC.
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Old 12-29-2022, 01:03 PM   #37
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Originally Posted by zico20 View Post
Okay, are you fudging on the lines? All three of those ATS numbers are way off. They were accurate two weeks ago. Now if you tell me that is what they were when you bet them then I will buy that and accept it as I make several bets from over two weeks ago and the lines change.
All lines are what they were when released on the first day of the schedule for the bowls

I would never fudge the lines I am using the 1st release lines for my bets that I have made

GL today and the rest of the bowl season zico!
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Old 12-30-2022, 10:20 AM   #38
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Updated numbers are 9-18 ATS and 12-16 O/U and down $350 on the bowls. Five games today!

NC ST. -1 $200 under 45.5 $100
UCLA -6 $200 over 54 $100
Notre Dame -3 $200 under 51 $100
Wyoming +2.5 $50 over 40.5 $50
Clemson -6 $50 under 61 $50

Maryland is missing three wide receivers and both teams are better on defense than offense.

Pittsburgh has been dinged badly by opt outs otherwise I would have chosen them as UCLA has absolutely no defense. UCLA is at full strength so they are the pick.

South Carolina is decimated by opt outs after posting two big victories. Notre Dame, which team will show up?

The Wyoming game isn't even on tv, you need a certain streaming service so who cares. I admit I picked them because I like them more. plus Ohio is from the MAC.

Clemson really shouldn't be favored but Tennessee is missing their star QB so that is the difference.
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Old 12-30-2022, 10:34 AM   #39
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Updated records as of 12/29
SU: 15-13
ATS: 14-14
O/U: 16-11-1

Here are today's bowl games

Dukes mayo Bowl
Maryland wins by 0.92pts with 46 total points and a win% of 50.4% to 49.5%
SU Pick: Maryland
ATS Pick: NC State+1
O/U Pick: Under 48

Tony The Tiger Sun Bowl
UCLA wins by 1.63pts with 67 total points and a win% of 50.7% to 49.2%
SU Pick: UCLA
ATS Pick: Pittsburgh+7
O/U Pick: Over 57.5

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
Notre Dame wins by 5.80pts with 56 total points and a win% of 52.4% to 47.5%
SU Pick: Notre Dame
ATS Pick: Notre Dame-3.5
O/U Pick: Over 52

Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl
Ohio wins by 6.22pts with 48 total points and a win% of 53.7% to 46.2%
SU Pick: Ohio
ATS Pick: Ohio-1
O/U Pick: Over 43

Capital One Orange Bowl
Tennessee wins by 5.50pts with 62.5 total points and a win% of 51.9% to 48.0%
SU Pick: Tennessee
ATS Pick: Tennessee+7
O/U Pick: Under 64
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Old 12-30-2022, 03:59 PM   #40
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TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
Notre Dame wins by 5.80pts with 56 total points and a win% of 52.4% to 47.5%
SU Pick: Notre Dame
ATS Pick: Notre Dame-3.5
O/U Pick: Over 52

..........

Capital One Orange Bowl
Tennessee wins by 5.50pts with 62.5 total points and a win% of 51.9% to 48.0%
SU Pick: Tennessee
ATS Pick: Tennessee+7
O/U Pick: Under 64
Maybe I'm a sucker for underdogs, but I think Clemson has found new life with their previously unheralded QB.
S.Car has shown a knack for winning games they're not supposed to. At the very least, I'm betting against the spread.
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Old 12-31-2022, 06:21 AM   #41
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Allstate Sugar Bowl
Alabama wins by 8.72pts with 58 total points and a win% of 53.0% to 46.9%
SU Pick: Alabama
ATS Pick: Alabama-3.5
O/U Pick: Over 54.5

TransPerfect music City Bowl
Kentucky wins by 0.01pts with 24 total points and a win% of 50.1% to 49.9%
SU Pick: Kentucky
ATS Pick: Iowa+2.5
ATS Pick: Under 31.5

Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
Michigan wins by 9.57pts with 58.5 total points and a win% of 53.2% to 46.7%
SU Pick: Michigan
ATS Pick: Michigan-7.5
O/U Pick: Over 58

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Georgia wins by 5.90pts with 51 total points and a win% of 51.8% to 48.1%
SU Pick: Georgia
ATS Pick: Ohio State+6.5
O/U Pick: Under 62

Records will be updated after these games
Happy New Year everyone!
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Old 12-31-2022, 08:58 AM   #42
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I have lost 6 of the last 7 on the sides. Record now stands at 10-22 ATS and 16-17 O/U. Losses are $450! Okay, now comes the big day!

Alabama -3.5 $1000 over 56 $200
Kentucky +2.5 $200 under 31.5 $200
TCU +9.5 $200 under 58 $200
Georgia -6 $200 under 62.5 $200

When I did my lines a month ago I thought Alabama would be a 14 point favorite since that is what they were or more in every game this year I think. I was shocked they opened at 3.5 so I put a thousand on them. I didn't go more because I wasn't sure if Young and Anderson were going to play. I had a feeling they would, but if they didn't I was going to put a grand on Kansas St. and make it a wash. The line has moved to -7 which I thought was going to be even higher. Last time Alabama was not in the playoff they beat Michigan 35-16 so I am not worried about them tanking it. With Young and Anderson playing you know they are going all out to win.

Kentucky and Iowa have QBs that have never thrown a pass, Iowa is on their 3rd stringer. These two met last year in a bowl and the o/u was around this and the game ended 20-17. I have a bad feeling on this o/u, I see four interceptions returned for TDs to push the game over. Neither team can score or move the ball and both have great defense. Iowa is also missing their star wide receiver and head coach.

TCU has moved down to -7 but I bet them early since I figured the line wasn't going to go up. Smart move!

Georgia is going to dominate Ohio St, I was tempted to make this a $500 bet but backed off. If Alabama covers and TCU wins or plays it very close I am going to then up the amount.
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Old 12-31-2022, 03:36 PM   #43
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Maybe I'm a sucker for underdogs, but I think Clemson has found new life with their previously unheralded QB.
S.Car has shown a knack for winning games they're not supposed to. At the very least, I'm betting against the spread.
I should've just kept my mouth shut.

At least the Gamecocks made a game of their bowl appearance. Clemson looked absolutely incompetent.
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Old 01-01-2023, 05:06 PM   #44
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Good day yesterday financially! I am now up $350 for the bowl season. ATS 12-24 and 18-19 O/U

Mississippi St -1.5 $50 under 46 $50
LSU -5.5 $1000 over 54 $50
Utah -1.5 $50 under 53 $50
Tulane +2.5 $50 over 63.5 $50

Have no idea how Mississippi St. responds with the death of Leach. I think USC should be favored by more but they do have some opt outs where Tulane is at full strength. I bet Utah but I am basically guessing.

When the lines came out weeks ago I had LSU penciled in as a eight point favorite, surprised it was this low. LSU was one of my top picks to cover. I think Purdue sucks like most BIG teams. Now, I put a grand on them, my third huge bet after Fresno and Alabama thinking and hoping that Purdue's QB O'Connell would opt out and he did, along with their by far best receiver Jones plus their second leading receiver Durham. Plus their coach departed. Brain fat yesterday when I said Iowa was losing their coach, they weren't, it was Purdue.

Had O'Connell played I was going to put $500 on Purdue to make it a $500 bet on LSU. It is key to know the teams and potential opt outs and line movements. After the defections the line has gone to LSU -15. LSU has some opt outs also but Purdue is the inferior team and they had the bigger opt outs.

Also, as soon as TCU won I bet them to cover against Georgia. I got them at +15.5 and now the line is at 13.5 and I see it dropping to 12. Georgia's pass defense was exposed and I think TCU can keep it close. I also bet the over 61.5 as I think it is going to be a high scoring game.

Hey Check Mark, I was thinking that next year how about you and I do a contest and see who wins using a mythical bank roll, just for fun. If anyone else wants to participate that would be great but I think I am the only one stupid enough to take you on.
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Old 01-01-2023, 10:00 PM   #45
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I have a lot of respect for TCU. I was glad to see Georgia win against Ohio, and they earned the win, but I didn't see anything that makes me want to put $20 on the line.
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