Late "Accurate" Betting

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by The_Turf_Monster

Favorites are hitting at a higher rate since I’ve been tracking the data. More money is bet at the last second than ever thanks to ADW couch bettors (their handle is outnumbering whatever computer boogeyman anybody thinks exists), meaning that the favorite is going to get bet down to an underlay before anybody can cancel or adjust. There’s no secret here, and anybody betting through an ADW is contributing to it

I wish for the life of me there could simply be a separate pool for on track bettors that wait in line to bet, I wouldn’t have to deal with the nonsense caused by the ADW bettors

So, you figure they're betting more than the $1.6b that the whales are wagering?

Or do you believe those players are all a myth?

[Cholly]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

Finally, I also read recently that Stronach and Churchill Downs have two of the big CAW teams. Unless I'm missing something, isn't that a serious conflict of interest? Couldn't it be extrapolated that those with the information on blind pools could gather knowledge about inefficiencies and bet accordingly? Something similar to what the DFS issue was with insider knowledge of what combinations of players were taken.

Sorry for the long post. I really would like any opinions on this.

If Churchill & Stronach have wagering arms, it raises exponentially the degree to which the pari-mutuel deck is stacked against recreational players.

If your competition is privy to your bets, it’s analogous to playing gin rummy with someone who closely vests their cards while your hand is displayed face-up on the table. The so-called blind pools (trifectas, multi’s) are not blind to them; based on their customers betting they can accurately project where the total pool will end and know where any overlays might be.

More impactfully, they have the ability to construct computer programs predicting race results based on their customers’ betting. A gross simplification of that would be if perhaps their records revealed that anytime both Cholly and Tom bet on the same horse in a maiden sprint for 2YO’s at Saratoga, that horse has zero chance to win. How this would work in reality would be a great deal more complicated and nuanced, but the upshot is they could construct incredibly accurate handicapping systems that have nothing to do with horses’ results, breeding, trainers, or jockeys--all they have to do is handicap handicappers...which they can do because they have “inside information” of who their customers are betting and how successful they’ve been in the past. Horses may often be unpredictable, but people rarely are.

[Robert Fischer]

Conflict of interest.

Originally Posted by Cholly

If Churchill & Stronach have wagering arms, it raises exponentially the degree to which the pari-mutuel deck is stacked against recreational players.

...

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by Cholly

If Churchill & Stronach have wagering arms, it raises exponentially the degree to which the pari-mutuel deck is stacked against recreational players.

If your competition is privy to your bets, it’s analogous to playing gin rummy with someone who closely vests their cards while your hand is displayed face-up on the table. The so-called blind pools (trifectas, multi’s) are not blind to them; based on their customers betting they can accurately project where the total pool will end and know where any overlays might be.

More impactfully, they have the ability to construct computer programs predicting race results based on their customers’ betting. A gross simplification of that would be if perhaps their records revealed that anytime both Cholly and Tom bet on the same horse in a maiden sprint for 2YO’s at Saratoga, that horse has zero chance to win. How this would work in reality would be a great deal more complicated and nuanced, but the upshot is they could construct incredibly accurate handicapping systems that have nothing to do with horses’ results, breeding, trainers, or jockeys--all they have to do is handicap handicappers...which they can do because they have “inside information” of who their customers are betting and how successful they’ve been in the past. Horses may often be unpredictable, but people rarely are.

One of the best posts in the history of PA.

[Track Collector]

Originally Posted by Cholly

If Churchill & Stronach have wagering arms, it raises exponentially the degree to which the pari-mutuel deck is stacked against recreational players.

If your competition is privy to your bets, it’s analogous to playing gin rummy with someone who closely vests their cards while your hand is displayed face-up on the table. The so-called blind pools (trifectas, multi’s) are not blind to them; based on their customers betting they can accurately project where the total pool will end and know where any overlays might be.

More impactfully, they have the ability to construct computer programs predicting race results based on their customers’ betting. A gross simplification of that would be if perhaps their records revealed that anytime both Cholly and Tom bet on the same horse in a maiden sprint for 2YO’s at Saratoga, that horse has zero chance to win. How this would work in reality would be a great deal more complicated and nuanced, but the upshot is they could construct incredibly accurate handicapping systems that have nothing to do with horses’ results, breeding, trainers, or jockeys--all they have to do is handicap handicappers...which they can do because they have “inside information” of who their customers are betting and how successful they’ve been in the past. Horses may often be unpredictable, but people rarely are.

According to a well-respected industry insider that I have had conversations with a few years ago (and who gave me permission to share this info if I kept their name anonymous), it is simply not true that big whale teams have information to "secret/inside" pool information inside the pari-mutuel system.

What they DO have is superior FORECASTING tools, which include knowing (in general) how the public is typically going to bet.

Here is how it was explained to me involving the Win Pool:
Whale Team --> "We assess that in this race, horse A, with characteristics 1,2,3,4, and 5, is going to be bet down to 6-5 excluding our wager. We also assess the horse's actual odds of winning as 4-5, so we will wager an additional $x on it to win. (NOTE that in order to generate a profit, the final odds still need to be above 4-5 with the inclusion of $X.). Remember too that in addition to the public money, teams also need to take into account monies from other whale teams that are expected to land on the same horse.

No one is perfect in ALL situations, but if the assessments of public (pre-whale) odds and actual odds of winning are mostly correct, the team is going to make money long-term. Getting the very best rebate rates of course is helpful as well, as long as the assessment (forecasting abilities) are strong enough.

I suspect the math and theory are significantly more difficult and complex for wagers like the trifecta, but it still comes down to being able to (more) accurately assess a horse's probability of reaching a specific finish position, AND, understanding how "the public" is typically going to construct their tickets.

[jay68802]

If anyone is watching EVD tonight, the late $ has been spot on. Including taking a horse (the 2 in the 4th) from 10/1 to 2/1.

[mike_123_ca]

Originally Posted by jay68802

If anyone is watching EVD tonight, the late $ has been spot on. Including taking a horse (the 2 in the 4th) from 10/1 to 2/1.

The was 7/1 as they were loading in the gate and closed at 2/1, but the DD "will pays" indicated the as an overlay at 7/1 hence the logically late money.

[The_Turf_Monster]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

So, you figure they're betting more than the $1.6b that the whales are wagering?

Or do you believe those players are all a myth?

If we are going to accept that their wagers are $1.6B in the aggregate, it’s demonstrable that the ADW couch bettors are wagering more. It’s not even close, even if every cent of that $1.6B comes in at the last click

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by Track Collector

According to a well-respected industry insider that I have had conversations with a few years ago (and who gave me permission to share this info if I kept their name anonymous), it is simply not true that big whale teams have information to "secret/inside" pool information inside the pari-mutuel system.

What they DO have is superior FORECASTING tools, which include knowing (in general) how the public is typically going to bet.

Here is how it was explained to me involving the Win Pool:
Whale Team --> "We assess that in this race, horse A, with characteristics 1,2,3,4, and 5, is going to be bet down to 6-5 excluding our wager. We also assess the horse's actual odds of winning as 4-5, so we will wager an additional $x on it to win. (NOTE that in order to generate a profit, the final odds still need to be above 4-5 with the inclusion of $X.). Remember too that in addition to the public money, teams also need to take into account monies from other whale teams that are expected to land on the same horse.

No one is perfect in ALL situations, but if the assessments of public (pre-whale) odds and actual odds of winning are mostly correct, the team is going to make money long-term. Getting the very best rebate rates of course is helpful as well, as long as the assessment (forecasting abilities) are strong enough.

I suspect the math and theory are significantly more difficult and complex for wagers like the trifecta, but it still comes down to being able to (more) accurately assess a horse's probability of reaching a specific finish position, AND, understanding how "the public" is typically going to construct their tickets.

We also have had numerous folks("insiders") on here that said basically the same thing. I am still not sold. I have no way of knowing how the computer works (even if I did, I have zero knowledge on that subject anyhow), but it seems to me that if they are in the computer, and they are extracting millions of dollars in profits each year, they have a huge financial motive to hire the talent to be able to dissect whatever info they want from the pools, including blind pools etc. If hackers can get into databases they aren't welcome in and steal millions of customers' data from huge companies why am I supposed to believe that computer programmers cannot extract whatever information they want from a system they are invited into and by all accounts is highly outdated.

I also believe that the racing industry feels they need these huge whale bettors to survive, so the last thing they would do, even if these teams were extracting whatever info they wanted, is admit to it (doubt they would even know anyhow). I am sure if some of the teams are getting all the info they want from the computers, they aren't sharing that fact with anyone.

[CBYRacer]

Originally Posted by Track Collector

According to a well-respected industry insider that I have had conversations with a few years ago (and who gave me permission to share this info if I kept their name anonymous), it is simply not true that big whale teams have information to "secret/inside" pool information inside the pari-mutuel system.

What they DO have is superior FORECASTING tools, which include knowing (in general) how the public is typically going to bet.

Here is how it was explained to me involving the Win Pool:
Whale Team --> "We assess that in this race, horse A, with characteristics 1,2,3,4, and 5, is going to be bet down to 6-5 excluding our wager. We also assess the horse's actual odds of winning as 4-5, so we will wager an additional $x on it to win. (NOTE that in order to generate a profit, the final odds still need to be above 4-5 with the inclusion of $X.). Remember too that in addition to the public money, teams also need to take into account monies from other whale teams that are expected to land on the same horse.

No one is perfect in ALL situations, but if the assessments of public (pre-whale) odds and actual odds of winning are mostly correct, the team is going to make money long-term. Getting the very best rebate rates of course is helpful as well, as long as the assessment (forecasting abilities) are strong enough.

I suspect the math and theory are significantly more difficult and complex for wagers like the trifecta, but it still comes down to being able to (more) accurately assess a horse's probability of reaching a specific finish position, AND, understanding how "the public" is typically going to construct their tickets.

This sounds very plausible. However, I'm convinced that in your example above the whale team will bet down to 4-5 rather than something slightly above 4-5. Then, they'll get their big rebates to make a profit. I'd be surprised if the computer teams / players are making money w/o rebate.

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

We also have had numerous folks("insiders") on here that said basically the same thing. I am still not sold. I have no way of knowing how the computer works (even if I did, I have zero knowledge on that subject anyhow), but it seems to me that if they are in the computer, and they are extracting millions of dollars in profits each year, they have a huge financial motive to hire the talent to be able to dissect whatever info they want from the pools, including blind pools etc. If hackers can get into databases they aren't welcome in and steal millions of customers' data from huge companies why am I supposed to believe that computer programmers cannot extract whatever information they want from a system they are invited into and by all accounts is highly outdated.

I also believe that the racing industry feels they need these huge whale bettors to survive, so the last thing they would do, even if these teams were extracting whatever info they wanted, is admit to it (doubt they would even know anyhow). I am sure if some of the teams are getting all the info they want from the computers, they aren't sharing that fact with anyone.

I'm with you wholeheartedly on this. What do they expect us to believe is happening when the fox is guarding the hen house?

[BarchCapper]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

by the way, the place that you work for, Oaklawn Park is pretty dam good. they don't accept any CAW in any pool there. i actually win in that place pari- mutually. i am now giving NYRA a shot in the win pools.

I could be wrong about this, but I believe that changed when CDI/TwinSpires took over the wagering agreement negotiations for Oaklawn sometime in the past year and a half or so. Rick Hammerle would regularly refer to the lack of CAW in the Oaklawn pools during his appearances on Steve Byk in the 2020 season. Those comments were noticeably absent (when I heard him) in 2021.

Commensurate with that absence of comment were much more noticeable last minute odds fluctuations during the 2021 season (vs. 2019-20 seasons) at least to this observer's eye.

I would be hard-pressed to believe that if CDI/TwinSpires was doing the negotiations, that they would exclude CAW, especially if they own/run some of those entities.

I'm fairly sure the change to a CDI/TS negotiator has benefitted Oaklawn's share of the wagering pie with other ADWs. I have been led to understand that they were not getting a primo rate for what has become a primo track. It just may not be benefitting the regular players.

[Elkchester Road]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

I'm with you wholeheartedly on this. What do they expect us to believe is happening when the fox is guarding the hen house?

Exactly, Track Phantom. This was a huge issue before computers became an issue.

[VeryOldMan]

Originally Posted by BarchCapper

I could be wrong about this, but I believe that changed when CDI/TwinSpires took over the wagering agreement negotiations for Oaklawn sometime in the past year and a half or so. Rick Hammerle would regularly refer to the lack of CAW in the Oaklawn pools during his appearances on Steve Byk in the 2020 season. Those comments were noticeably absent (when I heard him) in 2021.

Commensurate with that absence of comment were much more noticeable last minute odds fluctuations during the 2021 season (vs. 2019-20 seasons) at least to this observer's eye.

I would be hard-pressed to believe that if CDI/TwinSpires was doing the negotiations, that they would exclude CAW, especially if they own/run some of those entities.

I'm fairly sure the change to a CDI/TS negotiator has benefitted Oaklawn's share of the wagering pie with other ADWs. I have been led to understand that they were not getting a primo rate for what has become a primo track. It just may not be benefitting the regular players.

Good stuff re OP BarchCapper.