Post race analysis Preakness

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by jimmyb

I think Ken Rudolph is still beating his chest.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CwSDE3KLGL4

I miss Ken being on TVG...wonder what he is doing nowadays...?

[Vinnie]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

I will go on record stating the horse I believe who is improving and will benefit most from the 1-1/2 mile distance, the WINNER of the Belmont Stakes is------->Senior Investment

I like your line of reasoning ReplayRandall, and, if the race were going this next weekend with who appears likely to show up for the Belmont Stakes I would tend to agree with your assessment.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by Gerard02

I would not toss him out, completely. He may surprise you and win it.

I agree. CE just got caught at the wire after engaging in a speed duel, not because he has distance limitations. He should get a more reasonable pace in the Belmont. If ridden properly he can also close strongly.

[TheGarMan]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

I miss Ken being on TVG...wonder what he is doing nowadays...?

Funny, I just looked him up online a few weeks back... Seems he was local news anchor doing news in southern California (Maybe the San diego market if memory serves me?)

Always liked him, and LOVED the behind the scenes footage of the Giacomo derby win

Gar

[Gerard02]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

It wasn't the Derby alone but the fact that he had run 2 tops in a row. He actually ran faster splits in the Derby than in the Preakness and held on much better there. If one considers pace, his performance was better than his raw Beyer figure implies. What kind of performance in the Derby was considering the hot pace. Beyer's don't show the effects of pace, though figure handicappers must interpret the figure in relation to how the figure was earned. That effort, considering the pace, set him up for a likely bounce on short rest.

Glad you mentioned "Speed to Spare". My favorite part is where Cardello points out that when a horse runs a superior figure and then runs poorly due to injury and then returns with an improved figure despite being short on conditioning he is likely to repeat his previous top next time. That is way I liked Classic Empire in both the Derby and Preakness. Throwing out the Derby due to his horrible trip, He fit the pattern beautifully and confirmed my belief in him in the Preakness.

Looking more closely at AD, he fit the back-to-back big Beyer. He scored an all time high 97 in the Florida Derby, followed by another all time high of 102 in the Kentucky Derby. CE is interesting. He followed a three and out pattern with a 102 for his BC Jvnile he then bounced in then bounced in the Holy Bull. He then comes up with a 94 in the Arkansas Derby, followed by a bounce to a 90 in the Kentucky Derby. His Preakness Beyer was a 102, his all time high. He is now following an up and down pattern. One high, one low, one high. If this is true, CE is due for a bounce next. He had a hard fought Preakness, so one would lean towards bounce in the Belmont. I'll look more into the patterns for the rest of the possibles as they come online.

[jimmyb]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

I miss Ken being on TVG...wonder what he is doing nowadays...?

Last I knew he was doing something called Good Morning Sacramento as well as some movie stuff.

[Gerard02]

Another note I just read in my "Speed to Spare" book. I had it underlined in red and highlighted. I Quote, "Horses who achieve a lifetime best on a wet track are particularly vulnerable next time out."

Based on this, those who tossed AD completely, were spot on. I missed this. This is why it's important to review. From this, I must conclude that my confidence in AD was misplaced and I paid for it. Luckily, I did not discount what the AD naysayers were pointing out. I took CE and wheeled him with everyone other than AD, but got nipped by CC. At least, passed the 16th pole, I felt I still had a shot at winning as I watched AD head to the rear with the gear.

[Gerard02]

One more note: Senior Investment shows an Escalator pattern. His Beyers have been improving, since he began racing. He had a couple of stalls, but he has not taken a step back. Not sure what to make of that, but if he stays fit, he has a shot in the Belmont, if he goes.

[maliksealy210]

Originally Posted by Gerard02

One more note: Senior Investment shows an Escalator pattern. His Beyers have been improving, since he began racing. He had a couple of stalls, but he has not taken a step back. Not sure what to make of that, but if he stays fit, he has a shot in the Belmont, if he goes.

Channing Hill had some great info after race on this horse, and concluded practically "claiming" an upcoming victory in the Belmont, claiming (rightly so from what I've seen and the chart) that he was just getting his stride at the 1/8 pole and had a super strong gallop out. Will be interesting to see.