Post race analysis Preakness

[Gerard02]

Being the new guy here, let me be the first to congratulate the ones here who picked Cloud Computing. Also, good call on the race itself. There were some here who said AD would get wiped off the planet in a speed duel with CE. They were right. I was a thumbs nail close to killin my bets as I watched AD in the post parade. Something was not right. CE looked all business, and that's why I stuck around. Also, scared money never wins.

Pletcher made a big mistake sending AD into a duel with CE. While the fractions were a bit slower than the Derby, a speed duel is a speed duel. We proved one thing. AD cannot take and hold the lead like AP did in 2015. This race blew my figs out of the water. At least, for AD and Lookin at Lee. CE was spot on, even though he lost. He showed he's got guts and fought back as CC drew alongside. It's obvious the battle with AD set him up for the loss. Still, we know who has balls now. AD is just a dream, now.

Going back to my data, Cloud Computing had good final fractions. However, I learned that good final fractions mean nothing when up against big class. Since, CC couldn't beat IWC, I figured he would be third, at best. My big mistake. I was going to change my tactic up a bit and box CE with the field for the exacta, but I only had so much money and it was to late to start thinking changing stuff. I stuck to my guns.

Still, that's horse racing. In the end, you win or lose. On to the Belmont and redemption. Let's see what we get.

[n.c]

before the Ark Derby- he said CE is ready and CE won
Preakness- he mentioned that he has the best horse and he will go after AD while Pletcher was silent. CE ran a great race and finished second, beating AD in a duel.

World Approval- race 12- Again Casse said horse is doing great and it will run a great race- world Approval won...

Going to keep an eye on Casse quotes in the future.

[burnsy]

Originally Posted by n.c

before the Ark Derby- he said CE is ready and CE won
Preakness- he mentioned that he has the best horse and he will go after AD while Pletcher was silent. CE ran a great race and finished second, beating AD in a duel.

World Approval- race 12- Again Casse said horse is doing great and it will run a great race- world Approval won...

Going to keep an eye on Casse quotes in the future.

World Approval is just a hard knocking, consistent horse. I've been cashing on this horse for three seasons now and he was the highlight of a not so great Preakness Day betting wise for me. I was drunk by 7 pm, a sign I was not doing well.

As for the Preakness, it went kind of like I thought it would with the exception of Cloud Computing winning. It was obvious that someone had to press Always Dreaming and when it was Classic Empire that cost him first place. This left it wide open for a late close, which is exactly what happened. Gotta give Chad Brown props again. Is there anything this guy can't win? Cloud Computing had been beaten soundly in his last two and this trainer gets him to run like that yesterday. The "young gun" is now the master in my book, it just keeps getting better for him. Talk about peaking at the right moment. Can't wait to see the string he brings to Saratoga. Maybe he even has a Travers winner this year.

[classhandicapper]

Casse said he was going to go after Always Dreaming, but I think the level of aggressiveness cost them the race. IMO, it was totally unnecessary to push Always Dreaming in a 23 - 46 4/5 pace to accomplish his goal of keeping Always Dreaming honest.

There were a handful of possible outcomes doing it the way they did it.

1. You find out you have the inferior horse, lose the battle, and wind up blowing positions and cost yourself money.

2. You find out you have the better horse, win the battle, soften yourself up in the process, and lose the race (perhaps even more than one position).

3. You find out you are so superior, you could put the other horse away, and still beat the other horses despite softening yourself up.

Given his tactics yesterday, his only way to win was scenario #3. That's not a high probability scenario. The result was scenario #2.

IMO, the better option was to stalk Always Dreaming in a more moderate way and engage him on the 2nd turn without getting into a head to head battle earlier.

Then, if he's better than you he would have beaten you anyway, but you'll probably keep second.

If you are better than him you'll get to him on the turn and wear him down for the win.

Is there anyone that thinks Classic Empire was not clearly the best horse yesterday?

[arw629]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Casse said he was going to go after Always Dreaming, but I think the level of aggressiveness cost them the race. IMO, it was totally unnecessary to push Always Dreaming in a 23 - 46 4/5 pace to accomplish his goal of keeping Always Dreaming honest.

There were a handful of possible outcomes doing it the way they did it.

1. You find out you have the inferior horse, lose the battle, and wind up blowing positions and cost yourself money.

2. You find out you have the better horse, win the battle, soften yourself up in the process, and lose the race (perhaps even more than one position).

3. You find out you are so superior, you could put the other horse away, and still beat the other horses despite softening yourself up.

Given his tactics yesterday, his only way to win was scenario #3. That's not a high probability scenario. The result was scenario #2.

IMO, the better option was to stalk Always Dreaming in a more moderate way and engage him on the 2nd turn without getting into a head to head battle earlier.

Then, if he's better than you he would have beaten you anyway, but you'll probably keep second.

If you are better than him you'll get to him on the turn and wear him down for the win.

Is there anyone that thinks Classic Empire was not clearly the best horse yesterday?

I had no problem with the ride. CE and CC both ran winning races IMO and those two are the ones I want to bet moving forward

[burnsy]

That's the problem that Classic Empire has, he appears to be the best horse in the race, but continues to find a way to lose. I gotta disagree, Cloud Computing put together a well timed rally. Which I thought would be the winning move after a speed duel. I didn't like the winner but he ran them down fair and square. Class goes to those who finish the fastest.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by arw629

I had no problem with the ride. CE and CC both ran winning races IMO and those two are the ones I want to bet moving forward

It wasn't what I would call a dreadful ride because the pace was not savage, but he lost with the best horse and I think it was avoidable.

[thaskalos]

I wouldn't bet Classic Empire in the Belmont with money that I found on the street.

[dilanesp]

Contesting a speed duel in a route race is never a great idea. On the other hand, it was a no win situation for CE's connections-- if they didn't contest and AD runs away with the race wire to wire Oxbow style, they would have been criticized for not going out with him (Conquest Mo Money too).

[Robert Fischer]

I think we got some useful information on the horses.

Always Dreaming showed us his limitations. I hope this guy bounces back as good as new, and does some more racing. Both in terms of health, and his ownership's willingness to campaign him. Always have to wonder, in today's game.

Always Dreaming had never faced adversity in a route race, before the Kentucky Derby. In the Derby he had a tougher race, but not very tough. He had a better trip than everyone other than Lookin At Lee. His tactical speed allowed him to take the initiative. He didn't have to battle other horses in a sloppy mess around a wide trip. I wouldn't have bet State of Honor in the Queen's plate, and at no point was State of Honor or anyone else threatening Always Dreaming's position. It was technically 'adversity', being the Derby and requiring 2 or 3 responses from JV along a more honest pace, but arguably was somewhere along the good-trip to dream-trip continuum.

In the Preakness, Classic Empire threatened Always Dreaming's position, and Always Dreaming crumbled like a styrofoam cooler being smashed on the heads of drunken infielders.

Classic Empire was a huge underlay in the Preakness. His Arkansas Derby race was extremely mediocre. His Kentucky Derby race was probably mediocre. He was being marketed as the rival of Always Dreaming.
I had a bias against Classic Empire, but he was in a select group of alternatives to Always Dreaming, and he ran the best race in the Preakness. His Preakness was good enough, that I have to look back at Classic Empire's Derby with an open mind. He did after all, run the fastest Kentucky Derby, when allowing for ground loss. As much as I dislike a bad value, it's fair to look at Classic Empire and ask whether in a crop with no super horses, if he simply stands among the leaders, and is capable of being the best on any given day. Have to hope he goes to the Belmont Stakes.

Cloud Computing was the best value in the Preakness. He appeared going into the race as the 2nd best horse in the race, to Always Dreaming. Cloud Computing ran a good race, and he happened to win. At least from the early viewings of the race, it seems that he may have been second best(behind Classic Empire), and may have benefited a great deal from the tactics. He was obvious, but it's nice to see horses actually do what they are capable of, and kind of erase the extrapolation, and replace it with reality.

Senior Investment is mildly promising. He looks like a big turf horse, and he contrasted well enough while working alongside Lookin At Lee, that he's earned a little bit of respect.

Lookin At Lee ran his race again. He was a horrible underlay, but he's been an honest race horse. Had to have him for the bottom of the super.

Conquest Mo Money failed to take any initiative, and it didn't help his closing kick at all.

Hence failed to fire again, and it would be a surprise if he were to display graded stakes ability.

Everyone else pretty much ran their race.

[Robert Fischer]

There's a lot(more than 3) of things that may or may not have happened.

Yes, maybe some perfect, super finesse/high-pressured combination ride could have wilted AD while preserving more horse, all in a perfectly timed move with the command of a drill sergeant and the grace of a ballerina...

Or, maybe the strategy was reasonably sound.

It looked prior to the race, like Always Dreaming would control and kick away as he usually does.
Team Classic Empire took fate into their own hands and it is reasonably likely that they were the factor that wilted Always Dreaming, giving Classic Empire a chance to win the Preakness.
It took one of the top horses to sit a good trip, and then fire, in order to beat Classic Empire by a head.

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Casse said he was going to go after Always Dreaming, but I think the level of aggressiveness cost them the race. IMO, it was totally unnecessary to push Always Dreaming in a 23 - 46 4/5 pace to accomplish his goal of keeping Always Dreaming honest.

There were a handful of possible outcomes doing it the way they did it.

1. You find out you have the inferior horse, lose the battle, and wind up blowing positions and cost yourself money.

2. You find out you have the better horse, win the battle, soften yourself up in the process, and lose the race (perhaps even more than one position).

3. You find out you are so superior, you could put the other horse away, and still beat the other horses despite softening yourself up.

Given his tactics yesterday, his only way to win was scenario #3. That's not a high probability scenario. The result was scenario #2.

IMO, the better option was to stalk Always Dreaming in a more moderate way and engage him on the 2nd turn without getting into a head to head battle earlier.

Then, if he's better than you he would have beaten you anyway, but you'll probably keep second.

If you are better than him you'll get to him on the turn and wear him down for the win.

Is there anyone that thinks Classic Empire was not clearly the best horse yesterday?

[rsetup]

Yippee.

Post race comments from those clueless (and/or silent) pre-race.

And, as expected, some repeat offenders.

I learn so much here.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by rsetup

Yippee.

Post race comments from those clueless (and/or silent) pre-race.

And, as expected, some repeat offenders.

I learn so much here.

If you are referring to me, I am totally willing to cop to the fact that I got the pre-race absolutely wrong.

That doesn't mean we can't try to work through the result and learn something.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by rsetup

Yippee.

Post race comments from those clueless (and/or silent) pre-race.

And, as expected, some repeat offenders.

I learn so much here.

I'll ask again...do you keep track of the performance of all the picks you make? If you have, where? I haven't seen it...

Maybe you sum it up at the end of the day, I can't remember, but I know you don't provide a running total over all the picks you've posted...until you do, you might want to can the "clueless" talk until we can see whether or not you're one of the clueless yourself.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I wouldn't bet Classic Empire in the Belmont with money that I found on the street.

I assume that has to do with the distance and not how well he ran yesterday.