The Rebel

[sam i am]

This race looks pretty strong to me.
I like Sway Away ready to show his pedigree for dist.
right now this is my derby horse


SWAY AWAY
ARCHARCHARCH
THE FACTOR
ALTERNATION
ELITE ALEX
J P'S GUSTO

[redshift1]

Originally Posted by sam i am

This race looks pretty strong to me.
I like Sway Away ready to show his pedigree for dist.
right now this is my derby horse


SWAY AWAY
ARCHARCHARCH
THE FACTOR
ALTERNATION
ELITE ALEX
J P'S GUSTO

I liked Sway Away's last..... Rebel should provide a gauge for the California horses... The Factor may need a couple of oxygen bottles and a shot of nitrous to hold on.

[point given]

Sway Away for me too. Look what Pegasus did off that last 7F stakes which The Factor wired them. SA finished nicely that day and should stretch out.

[forced89]

I like Elite Alex. He had a tough trip in the Southwest and there is not much track after the final turn at a mile at Oaklawn.

I'm biased though because of the guts of his sire, Afleet Alex, and I'm not referring to his miraculous save in the Preakness. He prepped for the Rebel at Oaklawn in a six furlong race, sat third, and as the two horses in front of him moved together to shut him off, he basically knocked them both out the way as he drove between them.

Elite Alex has Afleet Alex's trainer. If he has his gut, he wins.

[tribecaagent]

Originally Posted by forced89

I like Elite Alex. He had a tough trip in the Southwest and there is not much track after the final turn at a mile at Oaklawn.

I'm biased though because of the guts of his sire, Afleet Alex, and I'm not referring to his miraculous save in the Preakness. He prepped for the Rebel at Oaklawn in a six furlong race, sat third, and as the two horses in front of him moved together to shut him off, he basically knocked them both out the way as he drove between them.

Elite Alex has Afleet Alex's trainer. If he has his gut, he wins.

There were several rough trips in the Southwest, none more severe than Caleb's Posse.

[FlyinLate]

Alternation looks to be a nice up-and-coming horse. He defeated Elite Alex in an allowance race. On Southwest day, he returned to romp home 5 clear in another allowance and Elite Alex ran second in the Southwest (double flatterings of his first allowance win).

The Cali shippers are likely to take tons of cash. If the Factor can stretch out, he'll be outrageously tough (my guess is he can't). I think every horse player saw Sway Away closing at SA, and IMO will go off favored over The Factor.

With all the big names drawn in here, Alternation should offer tremendous value and will likely be my play come Saturday.

[Zenyatta To Crush]

Originally Posted by FlyinLate

Alternation looks to be a nice up-and-coming horse. He defeated Elite Alex in an allowance race. On Southwest day, he returned to romp home 5 clear in another allowance and Elite Alex ran second in the Southwest (double flatterings of his first allowance win).

The Cali shippers are likely to take tons of cash. If the Factor can stretch out, he'll be outrageously tough (my guess is he can't). I think every horse player saw Sway Away closing at SA, and IMO will go off favored over The Factor.

With all the big names drawn in here, Alternation should offer tremendous value and will likely be my play come Saturday.

Elite Alex lost at least 5 lengths out of the gate in that allowance race and still almost beat your horse. Alternation may be improving, but I just can't see him winning this one.

[Pell Mell]

I find the races that have been run at SA to be kind of odd as far as the pace of the races such as the San Vicente and the San Felipe.
In the SV Premier Pegasus drew even with THE FACTOR in the stretch and couldn't sustain his bid. There were only 6 horses in the race and after that torrid pace somebody had to be finishing fast and it happened to be Sway Away.
Then in the SF there was another hot pace which a proven speed horse like CTTT couldn't even run with and PP was in the right spot to take advantage of the collapse up front. When I take this into consideration it occurs to me that THE FACTOR is much better than the other CA horses.
But, the question is, what will happen when the CA horses run on another track that doesn't have this weird pace scenerio? Also, when I look at Flashpoint and Travelin Man, I'm inclined to think they are faster than THE FACTOR. In light of this, and feeling I've got to make a decision one way or the other, I'm going to be forced to discount the CA horses. I think that SWAY AWAY only came close because of the hot pace and no one else left in the race to come on.
There is however the possibility that I'm totally wrong in my thinking and also, despite what others may say, I really like THE FACTOR's breeding and think he can get the distance, I will have to use him on top of some of my plays. He may just have his own way in this one.
Either way, I feel ARCHARCHARCH is the horse to beat.

http://backstretchtalks.blogspot.com/

[PhantomOnTour]

Can't find any pp's yet(the free kind)...shouldn't they be out by now?

[Pell Mell]

Not yet, they draw today.

[precocity]

J P'S GUSTO will upset!!!!!!!!!!!!

[redshift1]

Rebel S.
1 1/16 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds | G2 STAKES | Purse: $300,000

1 Archarcharch J. Court

2 Alternation L. Quinonez

3 Dreaminofthewin M. Berry

4 Picko's Pride I. Ocampo

5 J P's Gusto R. Dominguez

6 The Factor M. Garcia

7 Caleb's Posse E. Razo, Jr.

8 Saratoga Red T. Thompson

9 Sway Away G. Gomez

10 Elite Alex C. Borel

11 Glint G. Saez

12 Bluegrass Jam M. Baze

13 J W Blue J. Rocco, Jr.

[Cholly]

What’s wrong with this picture? Blind Luck and Havre de Grace, who happen to be crowd-pleasing, game as it gets, Grade I winning fillies, who have already accomplished great things, and have an established rivalry, will be racing at OP Saturday for $150,000. On the same card, a bunch of no-name, probably never amount to anything 3yo colts will race for $300,000. Shouldn’t it be the other way around?

Meanwhile, the Fairgrounds will stage a five horse race for a million dollars, with the favorite and likely winner another unaccomplished 3yo dreg who couldn’t cut it in Florida.

If racing wants to have stars, it needs to reward them…and quit throwing money at wannabes.

[Pell Mell]

HUH?

[PhantomOnTour]

Glint and Dreaminofthewin are supposedly not running and Elite Alex may go in the La Dby instead.