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Old 09-03-2014, 11:53 PM   #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos

Can the $2 bettor come up with a way to average a $2 daily profit at the track?
That is "the secret" to horse racing.
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Old 03-23-2016, 06:52 AM   #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
This book isn't worth the paper it's printed on.

I was going to say this at the beginning of this thread...but I was embarrassed to admit that I paid money to get it.

Just terrible.
Was just now at Cohail's site (it's still up)......somehow googled my way to it. I liked his take on what's worthwhile in handicapping--and what's useless. I believe the author has since passed, but his site is well-worth the read.

He wasn't afraid to go against the grain of modern handicapping:

"The following aspects are borderline worthless:

Speed Numbers: I once believed in speed numbers, but wisdom comes with age, and I now wonder how anyone can believe a manipulated number is somehow more accurate than the actual time of a race is beyond my grasp.

Track Variants: Impossible to determine with any degree of accuracy.

Beyer Speed Figures: The worst hoax ever perpetuated upon the race-going public.

Par times: The dynamics of every race are different, and profiles based on average times for a given distance are highly flawed. They have no bearing on what will happen in the race under scrutiny.

Class: An elusive element. Worrying about which horse is the “class” in a race is daunting, time consuming, and mostly a waist of time.

Post Position: The post position a horse will break from has little, if any, influence on the outcome of the race.

Jockey: A competent trainer will employ a competent jockey. Issue closed.

Weight: Probably the most overemphasized factor in horse racing.

Track Condition: Another factor that gets far more attention than it deserves."


https://amgona.wordpress.com/2013/09...pping-aspects/

I googled his book for a review, and it brought me to this older thread.
NCG

Last edited by NorCalGreg; 03-23-2016 at 06:53 AM.
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Old 03-23-2016, 08:40 AM   #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
Was just now at Cohail's site (it's still up)......somehow googled my way to it. I liked his take on what's worthwhile in handicapping--and what's useless. I believe the author has since passed, but his site is well-worth the read.

He wasn't afraid to go against the grain of modern handicapping:

"The following aspects are borderline worthless:

Speed Numbers: I once believed in speed numbers, but wisdom comes with age, and I now wonder how anyone can believe a manipulated number is somehow more accurate than the actual time of a race is beyond my grasp.

Track Variants: Impossible to determine with any degree of accuracy.

Beyer Speed Figures: The worst hoax ever perpetuated upon the race-going public.

Par times: The dynamics of every race are different, and profiles based on average times for a given distance are highly flawed. They have no bearing on what will happen in the race under scrutiny.

Class: An elusive element. Worrying about which horse is the “class” in a race is daunting, time consuming, and mostly a waist of time.

Post Position: The post position a horse will break from has little, if any, influence on the outcome of the race.

Jockey: A competent trainer will employ a competent jockey. Issue closed.

Weight: Probably the most overemphasized factor in horse racing.

Track Condition: Another factor that gets far more attention than it deserves."


https://amgona.wordpress.com/2013/09...pping-aspects/

I googled his book for a review, and it brought me to this older thread.
NCG
Almost all of these points are completely wrong.
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Old 03-23-2016, 09:07 AM   #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeltaLover
Almost all of these points are completely wrong.

Agreed, Delta. I said he "wasn't afraid to go against the grain of modern handicapping" --Didn't say he wasn't a wack-job, and most of this was probably said for effect, as much as anything.

Was surprised he didn't also include something like

"TURF--IT'S JUST GRASS"


I do agree with his assessment of Par Times, Jockeys, and Weight.
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Old 03-23-2016, 09:36 AM   #35
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The tote-board has its place. Nowadays, it might be better at eliminate horses. For example, a ML horse at 2/1 opens at 10/1 and only drops down to 5/1 by post time. The barn might be broadcasting that they aren't going for a win today.
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Old 03-23-2016, 11:59 AM   #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Capper Al
The tote-board has its place. Nowadays, it might be better at eliminate horses. For example, a ML horse at 2/1 opens at 10/1 and only drops down to 5/1 by post time. The barn might be broadcasting that they aren't going for a win today.
Yes it does. It gives you a direct view into the mind of the crowd.

I sure as hell ain't chasin em around though!
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Old 03-23-2016, 07:55 PM   #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
This book isn't worth the paper it's printed on.

I was going to say this at the beginning of this thread...but I was embarrassed to admit that I paid money to get it.

Just terrible.
as always not afraid to be frank and candid.
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Old 03-24-2016, 01:52 AM   #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Goren
I looked at Fonner Park one year when in state simulcasting was allowed. I keep track of very time I thought a horse took and when it took it. Then I tried to break it down by trainers. I had numbers for the entire meet. There was only about 5 trainers who anything close to consistent as when the betting took place for winners. I did find out when a lot of "bad" money came in. The next year out state simulcasting came in and I stopped betting Fonner Park. I really have my doubts that anything very useful can be found by studying the timing of money.
Combine this with an owner, and it can be quite accurate. In the 80s at Longacres, you could tell with absolute certainty when a Mike Chambers trained, John Roche owned horse was the nuts. Mr. Roche would put significant money on the horse before the live betting started. 3/1 morning line would start at 2/5, and you knew Mr. Roche was confident of his runner that day. During a 6 month meet, there would be a half a dozen no brainer Chambers/Roche plays. Seldom would you get even money, as all the wise guys knew what was up, but I do remember getting 3/1 on a FTS filly once. She was 5/2 ML if I remember correctly, was 3/5 when betting opened, and floated. It made no sense that it floated as it was just another of Mr. Roche's Knight's Choice babies. I have no idea how that one slipped by. My father-in-law pointed this out to me the same time he pointed out jockeys ditching one mount for another by pointing out Gary Baze getting off the ML favorite to take the mount on Hilco Scamper in his debut. Scamper opened at 1/5 and somehow we got 7/5 if I remember correctly. He beat the 2nd time starter Baze ditched by 15 in 56 and small change.

In the 15 years I've been playing SoCal, I haven't been able to identify a combination like this, though I've looked for it as that lesson was never lost on me.
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Old 03-24-2016, 02:09 AM   #39
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To expand on my above post, I think the owner is more significant than the trainer in this equation. You can get an owner like Gary Barber that just bets on all his starters, and his money tells you nothing. However, Mr. Roche lived in Yakima, a solid 2 hour drive to Seattle, and for him to come across the Cascade mountain passes in order to place a bet on his horse would have been an entire day committed to this for a very busy man who did not have any method of off-track betting available to him. Barber likes betting for the sake of the rush, Mr. Roche only filled up the gas tank and pulled out his wallet when he knew he was getting his money back.

At that time handle at Longacres was respectable, not Santa Anita by any sense of the imagination, but $3000 on a horse at even money at post time was no guarantee to even tick it down 20 cents. $3000 on a horse at Emerald at post time would make a 5/1 3rd choice the 4/5 chalk. Things have changed around here, that's for sure.
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Old 03-24-2016, 02:10 AM   #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
Was just now at Cohail's site (it's still up)......somehow googled my way to it. I liked his take on what's worthwhile in handicapping--and what's useless. I believe the author has since passed, but his site is well-worth the read.

He wasn't afraid to go against the grain of modern handicapping:

"The following aspects are borderline worthless:

Speed Numbers: I once believed in speed numbers, but wisdom comes with age, and I now wonder how anyone can believe a manipulated number is somehow more accurate than the actual time of a race is beyond my grasp.

Track Variants: Impossible to determine with any degree of accuracy.

Beyer Speed Figures: The worst hoax ever perpetuated upon the race-going public.

Par times: The dynamics of every race are different, and profiles based on average times for a given distance are highly flawed. They have no bearing on what will happen in the race under scrutiny.

Class: An elusive element. Worrying about which horse is the “class” in a race is daunting, time consuming, and mostly a waist of time.

Post Position: The post position a horse will break from has little, if any, influence on the outcome of the race.

Jockey: A competent trainer will employ a competent jockey. Issue closed.

Weight: Probably the most overemphasized factor in horse racing.

Track Condition: Another factor that gets far more attention than it deserves."


https://amgona.wordpress.com/2013/09...pping-aspects/

I googled his book for a review, and it brought me to this older thread.
NCG
I believe Nitro would be more in agreement with this post than not. Many ways to skin a cat. Many ways indeed.
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Old 03-24-2016, 07:15 AM   #41
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ultracapper
I believe Nitro would be more in agreement with this post than not. Many ways to skin a cat. Many ways indeed.
LOL....saw a review that said:

"If you only read ONE handicapping book your entire life---make it THIS ONE!"
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Old 03-24-2016, 08:07 AM   #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ultracapper
Combine this with an owner, and it can be quite accurate. In the 80s at Longacres, you could tell with absolute certainty when a Mike Chambers trained, John Roche owned horse was the nuts.
Funny you should mention Mike. It reminds me of the time I saw him leaving the paddock, and I walked up to him and said, "Mike, I really like your horse in here today, would you advise me against betting him?" He said, "I don't know if he'll win or not, but I do know one thing...he's the only goddamn speed!"

And he was the only speed.

In a six horse race he was five to one and wired the field.

That was the only time I can ever remember approaching a trainer with a question about his horse.
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Old 03-24-2016, 04:46 PM   #43
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Good story. He's a damn solid trainer.
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Old 03-25-2016, 09:41 PM   #44
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Cool Tote Analysis is the LOGICAL choice

Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
Was just now at Cohail's site (it's still up)......somehow googled my way to it. I liked his take on what's worthwhile in handicapping--and what's useless. I believe the author has since passed, but his site is well-worth the read.

He wasn't afraid to go against the grain of modern handicapping:

"The following aspects are borderline worthless:

Speed Numbers: I once believed in speed numbers, but wisdom comes with age, and I now wonder how anyone can believe a manipulated number is somehow more accurate than the actual time of a race is beyond my grasp.

Track Variants: Impossible to determine with any degree of accuracy.

Beyer Speed Figures: The worst hoax ever perpetuated upon the race-going public.

Par times: The dynamics of every race are different, and profiles based on average times for a given distance are highly flawed. They have no bearing on what will happen in the race under scrutiny.

Class: An elusive element. Worrying about which horse is the “class” in a race is daunting, time consuming, and mostly a waist of time.

Post Position: The post position a horse will break from has little, if any, influence on the outcome of the race.

Jockey: A competent trainer will employ a competent jockey. Issue closed.

Weight: Probably the most overemphasized factor in horse racing.

Track Condition: Another factor that gets far more attention than it deserves."


https://amgona.wordpress.com/2013/09...pping-aspects/

I googled his book for a review, and it brought me to this older thread.
NCG
Quote:
Originally Posted by ultracapper
I believe Nitro would be more in agreement with this post than not. Many ways to skin a cat. Many ways indeed.
It's not a question of agreeing or disagreeing with any of the items mentioned (above), because a true tote analysis measures intentions based on the overall well being and condition of the horse (or horses). Nothing you will find in any traditional handicapping methodology will provide that information. That’s because all that printed information is based on the PAST. Anything derived from it is pure unadulterated subjective conjecture!
I don’t go against the grain of modern handicapping: I completely IGNORE it!

Every post/comment on this thread related to using the tote board is really a ridiculously over-simplification. Probably because no one realizes that the analysis I use goes well beyond looking at just the odds (which is simply a reflection of the Win pool ONLY!)

Listen, you guys. Believe what you want.
I don’t look for Winners. I look for Winning plays!
When ANY of you can duplicate post selections like this let me know:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...&page=10&pp=15
Post #138
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...&page=11&pp=15
Post #156 & #162
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...&page=12&pp=15
Post #171
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...5&page=3&pp=15
Post #35 & #38
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...5&page=4&pp=15
Post #58

You can still pat each other on the back and all agree to besmirch a method that is obviously beyond your grasp. But just because the majority of players can’t do it, doesn’t mean it can’t be done.
As my tote mentor always reminds me, “You can’t argue with ignorance”. So I’ll leave it at that, and let those doubters and cynics continue to struggle trying to make ends meet.
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Old 03-26-2016, 07:10 AM   #45
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Instead of being so defensive--couldn't you have maturely, reasonably explained your opinion? The "modern handicapping" term was mine--not the author's.

The wack-jobs (again--my term) that go back and find thread after thread to validate themselves, only proves you care deeply about what others think of you.

Relax, get down off your cosmic handicapping box--and join us.
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