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Old 08-27-2014, 09:03 PM   #16
Capper Al
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Tote action doesn't have to be on a favorite.
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Old 08-27-2014, 09:26 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by Capper Al
Tote action doesn't have to be on a favorite.
IMO, they rarely are. Again IMO, it is not a “conspiracy” or a “Fixed” race. Someone just feels that this horse may come alive today and makes a sizable bet. He/she most often loses on these bets. When they hit it is for a big price.
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Old 08-28-2014, 12:34 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by Tape Reader
IMO, they rarely are. Again IMO, it is not a “conspiracy” or a “Fixed” race. Someone just feels that this horse may come alive today and makes a sizable bet. He/she most often loses on these bets. When they hit it is for a big price.
Yeap!
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Old 08-28-2014, 07:05 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by barn32
If we could look at the tote board manipulations to determine profitability, this would imply there are those who know the outcome of races before they are run. Assuming these people exist we must further assume they are leaving elephant tracks across the tote.

Come on people it just doesn't work that way.

[If I owned or trained a horse I was certain would win at around 17 to one, I would make damn sure he stayed at or near 17 to one.]

Tote board manipulations are just that--the workings of the betting public as they heave to and fro trying to decide which way to go.

If there was anything to the up, down and sideways of the tote, Anderon and his brother would be rich by now, and we all know how they end up doing--five horse exacta boxes to try and get even.
The author's book doesn't mention tote board manipulation, though it's part of the patterns on display.

I would be SHOCKED if tote board analysis (and exotic pool analysis) is not incorporated into many of the betting syndicate's methods. If they're monitoring the pools looking for overlays, it's certainly logical that they would look for wagering "patterns" as well, trying to isolate the horses bet with "smart" or inside money versus the general betting public.

This does not imply that the outcome of the race is known beforehand. Obviously, many things can happen during a race that affect the outcome, and one can only model the likelihood of those events. Nor does it imply that any one pattern is always 100 percent foolproof - like any other handicapping factor, there's a hit rate and ROI associated with each pattern.

Patterns such as early money, late money, cold on the board, reoccuring "hits" on a pool for a Z display, wagers intended solely for price manipulation, etc., are common enough that it's worthwhile to track. The key is to determine if the wagers are just the random plays from the crowd or the smart money on the hotter horses.

Out of curiousity, how would you make your 17-1 shot stay at that price? If he opened at 21-1 and you wagered enough to drive him down to 17-1, don't you think that might alert the tote watchers? What if he gets bet down to 12-1? Do you start making wagers on other horses to drive his price up?
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Old 08-29-2014, 12:34 AM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoofless_Wonder
The author's book doesn't mention tote board manipulation, though it's part of the patterns on display.

I would be SHOCKED if tote board analysis (and exotic pool analysis) is not incorporated into many of the betting syndicate's methods. If they're monitoring the pools looking for overlays, it's certainly logical that they would look for wagering "patterns" as well, trying to isolate the horses bet with "smart" or inside money versus the general betting public.

This does not imply that the outcome of the race is known beforehand. Obviously, many things can happen during a race that affect the outcome, and one can only model the likelihood of those events. Nor does it imply that any one pattern is always 100 percent foolproof - like any other handicapping factor, there's a hit rate and ROI associated with each pattern.

Patterns such as early money, late money, cold on the board, reoccuring "hits" on a pool for a Z display, wagers intended solely for price manipulation, etc., are common enough that it's worthwhile to track. The key is to determine if the wagers are just the random plays from the crowd or the smart money on the hotter horses.

Out of curiousity, how would you make your 17-1 shot stay at that price? If he opened at 21-1 and you wagered enough to drive him down to 17-1, don't you think that might alert the tote watchers? What if he gets bet down to 12-1? Do you start making wagers on other horses to drive his price up?
In the pre-simulacasting era...one COULD have attached some significance to the "timing" of these odds fluctuations. Today...what appears to be "late money", could just as easily be a batch of early wagers that an out-of-town betting facility has transferred late into the host track's wagering pool.
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Old 08-29-2014, 05:45 AM   #21
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Originally Posted by thaskalos
In the pre-simulacasting era...one COULD have attached some significance to the "timing" of these odds fluctuations. Today...what appears to be "late money", could just as easily be a batch of early wagers that an out-of-town betting facility has transferred late into the host track's wagering pool.
There are other ways than watch for money dumps to follow the board that still work today.
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Old 08-29-2014, 07:41 AM   #22
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I wanted to read his archives. What is his website? Thank you.
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Old 08-29-2014, 12:15 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by Capper Al
There are other ways than watch for money dumps to follow the board that still work today.
I'd like to see one...
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Old 08-29-2014, 06:14 PM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
In the pre-simulacasting era...one COULD have attached some significance to the "timing" of these odds fluctuations. Today...what appears to be "late money", could just as easily be a batch of early wagers that an out-of-town betting facility has transferred late into the host track's wagering pool.
I looked at Fonner Park one year when in state simulcasting was allowed. I keep track of very time I thought a horse took and when it took it. Then I tried to break it down by trainers. I had numbers for the entire meet. There was only about 5 trainers who anything close to consistent as when the betting took place for winners. I did find out when a lot of "bad" money came in. The next year out state simulcasting came in and I stopped betting Fonner Park. I really have my doubts that anything very useful can be found by studying the timing of money.
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Old 09-02-2014, 05:33 PM   #25
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Lightbulb Tote board hcpg.

There is likely no such thing as 'easy' or rapidly when uncovering any truths re horserace handicapping. So forewarned you should acquire and absorb Glendon Jones' "Horse Racing Logic". This 128pg. book will describe what the Horseplayer has to do in order to win. The project of consistently winning is not meant for the weak of heart. In my opininion, after 47 yrs in the game, you must identify contenders accurately & quickly and then bet these 1, 2 or 3 favorable opportunities. Much easier said than done. I suspect the largest current obstacle to succeeding is the "get rich or be a success" by winning a tournament dream. You will need to consistently go against the crowd by betting on overlays (such a simple concept but it is likely the single way to do it). There is no Black Boxx that contains the secrets for being a Winner at the Track, it will take hard work with no certainty of eventual $$ reward.
At NYRA tracks you will need to be v/v/v sharp to identify any "undiscovered" value on the tote board (but good luck with that, you will need to devote a large portion of your business hours to id'ing these tote values, especially those advertised as the 'easy ones'). Good luck
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Old 09-03-2014, 12:06 AM   #26
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Originally Posted by Ed Keenan
There is likely no such thing as 'easy' or rapidly when uncovering any truths re horserace handicapping. So forewarned you should acquire and absorb Glendon Jones' "Horse Racing Logic". This 128pg. book will describe what the Horseplayer has to do in order to win. The project of consistently winning is not meant for the weak of heart. In my opininion, after 47 yrs in the game, you must identify contenders accurately & quickly and then bet these 1, 2 or 3 favorable opportunities. Much easier said than done. I suspect the largest current obstacle to succeeding is the "get rich or be a success" by winning a tournament dream. You will need to consistently go against the crowd by betting on overlays (such a simple concept but it is likely the single way to do it). There is no Black Boxx that contains the secrets for being a Winner at the Track, it will take hard work with no certainty of eventual $$ reward.
At NYRA tracks you will need to be v/v/v sharp to identify any "undiscovered" value on the tote board (but good luck with that, you will need to devote a large portion of your business hours to id'ing these tote values, especially those advertised as the 'easy ones'). Good luck
Many books "describe" what the handicapper has to do in order to win...but the handicapper is still losing. The game is a lot tougher than the handicapping authors make it seem.
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Old 09-03-2014, 08:52 AM   #27
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Originally Posted by thaskalos
Many books "describe" what the handicapper has to do in order to win...but the handicapper is still losing. The game is a lot tougher than the handicapping authors make it seem.
Yes it is. But is not all that tough for the hobbyist handicapper to show a small profit. What is tough is making enough money to earn a living from today's game.
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Old 09-03-2014, 09:53 AM   #28
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Lightbulb Re: Handicapping Authors

You are absolutely correct, the hcpg authors DO make it seem like it the game can be beaten and fairly consistently. However, the authors may or may not be professional players but they ARE authors so their motivation is to sell books. This is v/v/v difficult to do [sell more books] if the game is portrayed as an uphill struggle.
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Old 09-03-2014, 10:02 AM   #29
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Lightbulb Future racetracks as shopping malls.

You may be accurate with that 'shoppiong mall' forecast, I don't know. It has happened in some areas (Aksarben [near you], Beulah, Golden Gate -partially, Hollywood Pk and now NYRA management is discussing selling off parking lots (Bel) and reconfiguring Aqueduct in an effort to combine Aqu with Bel). Be careful what you ask for, eh?
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Old 09-03-2014, 05:14 PM   #30
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Yes it is. But is not all that tough for the hobbyist handicapper to show a small profit. What is tough is making enough money to earn a living from today's game.
I don't buy this premise, Robert. To me...it's very difficult to show ANY kind of profit in this game. This "small profit" and "big profit" talk has always been very confusing to me.

Can the $2 bettor come up with a way to average a $2 daily profit at the track? If he can...then financial security is there for the taking for him. All he has to do is move up his betting unit to what he considers to be a good day's pay. If you can make $2 a day by making $2 bets...then you should make $300 a day, if you make $300 bets. That's where horse racing compares favorably to poker; you don't face tougher competition when you move up in stakes.

And if the low-betting "hobbyist" is not psychologically prepared for bets of this magnitude...then I am here to help. Let him send his picks to me...and I'll wager $500 on each, and we'll split the profits. That way...it'll be worthwhile for both of us.

IMO...it's a myth that there is a great number of "small-betting" winners out there. It's very tough to be a "winner"...PERIOD.
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