Preakness Horse Matchups

[Irishfever]

Provincial lottery here in Canada is offering matchups n the Preakness.

Only two up so far.

Quip vs. Bravazo vs Diamond King

Lone Sailor vs Tenfold vs Sporting Chance



All they have to do is finish higher than their competitors even if the come in 5th,6th,7th.


Talk me through this race and who are the best mudders because I'm looking to pound Quip and Lone Sailor in a parlay to get 5.5-1 odds.

[MadVindication]

Tenfold over LS and SC.

Bravazo over Quip.

I think Sporting Chance will beat LS and Quip if he runs well.

I don't think QUip has run in a muddy track.

[MadVindication]

I keep accidentally deleting my edit pressing reply instead grr.

Only thing about DK is I think he could have the same type of improvement that Bravazo had in the derby. He is coming off a win at a 1 1/8 mile, ran better than he has in awhile, paced himself -his early to late pace figures are the same.

Sporting Chance ran in 4th in the mud KD day. Mile race.

Trend is derby winners beat non-derby winners.

Horses with blinkers didnt do to well in KD 'cause the slop in their eyes and nowhere for it to go, I guess. Don't know if any of those horses wear blinkers. Bravazo doesn't.

You mean betting against Quip and LS, right?

[Immortal6]

Give me Diamond King and Lone Sailor.

[davew]

Are they giving fixed odds? if so what are they?

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Irishfever

Quip vs. Bravazo vs Diamond King

tough matchup for me.

I don't know.
Quip is an 'unknown'. However, the public has taken a liking to him. That usually means bad odds.

Bravazo is a horse that I don't trust, but he ran better in the Derby than either of the other two have ever run in their life. He's bounced back well during the two weeks. If you don't factor gut feelings, he's the raw trip play.

Diamond King has poor speed figs, but seems decent. He had a DREAM trip last time. Probably forwardly placed and gets hurt by Justify or anyone else trying to be on the pace.

You are 'supposed to' take Bravazo here, but I'll pass.

Originally Posted by Irishfever

Lone Sailor vs Tenfold vs Sporting Chance

This one seems easier. Sporting Chance wants no part of 1 3/16M, and supposedly hasn't been been in top condition between races.
While Tenfold is a boom or bust, Lone Sailor may be the only one closing. He should make a middle-move (probably up the rail) around 5 or 6 furlongs into the race that wins his matchup vs. Sporting Chance for good.

[Immortal6]

I think Quip will try to hang tough up front and ultimately fade badly in the stretch. Bravazo ran well in the Derby, much better than most expected, but can he be trusted to string together two really solid efforts? Diamond King will sit off the pace if he is smart and try to make a move that gets him in position to clunk up for 3rd or 4th. Starting to think he and Lone Sailor might be the best keys for 3rd place.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Irishfever

Provincial lottery here in Canada is offering matchups n the Preakness.

Only two up so far.

Quip vs. Bravazo vs Diamond King

Lone Sailor vs Tenfold vs Sporting Chance

I’d skip the first play. There’s little separation on them in my eyes. I did use Diamond King most of those in my early gimmick wagers given he has an elite rider and may appreciate the distance. Also consider his Brisnet figure is much more competitive than his BSF or TimeForm figure. Lone Sailor seems like the obvious play in the second version. His figures top all not named Justify or GoodMagic. He gets a red hot rider and should appreciate a shorter field.

[Irishfever]

Thank you very much for your opinions.

I am not enamored with the small field and the unknown with Justify to bet tote action.

To Dave W, I attached a screen shot with the odds. It looks like they have changed. I believe you have to bet two events to occur and you can combine them with sports matchups which I don't plan on doing. I think it takes $500 for them to recalculate odds which they move a dime down.

For ex, matchup 1 Quip 2.30
Bravazo 2.40
Diamond King 2.50

So yes they are fixed odds when you lock them in but unlike parimutuel odds they are multipliers so if you combine with LS at 2.20 you get odds of 5.28-1 less the $1 wagered so really only 4.28-1 odds.

If your dead nutz sure a certain outcome will happen it is worth it. Last year on a big race they offered 3.40 multiplier on a horse everybody knew would be 1-2 parimutually when offered in a four horse matchup. All you had to do was find the winner of a 2nd event and you got a payout of better than 10-1. I think they took a real beatdown over it bc many cashed for thousands.

You have convinced me to go Diamond King and Lone Sailor. Great thoughts, I like how you build a case for your horses Tornado. Ty Immortal, Fischer, Mad for your input. And don't worry if it doesn't come in, I won't be blaming anybody,that's why they call it gambling.

[MadVindication]

Good luck!

[metro]

5dimes has a slew of prop bets for the Preakness if anyone has an account there.

6.4 to 1 for Justify winning by more than 6 lengths is one of many interesting options.

[mikejlb]

I haven't used 5Dimes for a couple of years. I tried for about 2 hours to revive my old account. I finally got too frustrated and gave up. The problem was 4 of my credit cards were declined. I called two of the banks and they fixed them but both gave me a denied after trying to deposit $300. I called them and they won't accept the fact that the problem is on their end. The last one I tried the bank assured me it was fixed after they had a temp block for suspicious activity. I explained to the bank that I was trying to purchase a database and she was ok with that and said there is nothing wrong with the cards. I explained this to 5Dimes and was told that I have been denied 4 times and the guy didn't know what to say. Customer service leaves a lot to be desired.