Win Pool - Subfair Game
BetPTC / raybo,
You are most welcome.
Perhaps we can make a few more logical inferences from the data.
For instance, it would be accurate to say that, given the very high percentage of losing bets (79.52%), for most punters the "win" market is operationally subfair. In other words, their handicapping skills are no match for the "wisdom of crowds". The best advice one can give these punters is that in order "to minimize losses they should minimize rounds" [Berkolaiko, 2007]. In simple terms, they should be more selective in their choice of events - specialize. Also, one should encourage them to use some variant of the "bold play" algorithm [Dubins And Savage, 1965]. I will not belabor the latter point as "bold play" stirs strong emotions in many investing circles.
Best wishes,
John
|