Longitudinal Study - Betting Australia

[jfdinneen]

Gentlemen,

A longitudinal study (one year) of betting patterns with an online bookmaker in Australia. In particular, note Table 2 on page 7. Food for thought?

John

[BetPTC]

Thank you for posting.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by jfdinneen

Gentlemen,

A longitudinal study (one year) of betting patterns with an online bookmaker in Australia. In particular, note Table 2 on page 7. Food for thought?

John

The only thing that is evident to me, other than the vast majority of bettors/gamblers lose money long term, is that those betting on points spreads ("handicaps") have a better chance of being profitable. They don't have to pick the winner, they merely have to beat the spread, either way. There have been many posts here that reflect that conclusion, that sports betting, on the spread, is much easier to make a profit at than racing.

[jfdinneen]

BetPTC / raybo,

You are most welcome.

Perhaps we can make a few more logical inferences from the data.

For instance, it would be accurate to say that, given the very high percentage of losing bets (79.52%), for most punters the "win" market is operationally subfair. In other words, their handicapping skills are no match for the "wisdom of crowds". The best advice one can give these punters is that in order "to minimize losses they should minimize rounds" [Berkolaiko, 2007]. In simple terms, they should be more selective in their choice of events - specialize. Also, one should encourage them to use some variant of the "bold play" algorithm [Dubins And Savage, 1965]. I will not belabor the latter point as "bold play" stirs strong emotions in many investing circles.

Best wishes,

John