Sleepers & Tosses

[Smarty Cide]

I like Rule as a sleeper, if he is even considered one but maybe can get like 12 or 15-1, maybe even 30-1... Id like those odds. The horse runs consistant good BSF's. Its so wide open now that Esky's out....

[Dahoss9698]

Originally Posted by Smarty Cide

I like Rule as a sleeper, if he is even considered one but maybe can get like 12 or 15-1... Id like those odds. The horse runs consistant good BSF's. Its so wide open now that Esky's out....

I agree in regards to Rule. He ran the best race in the Florida Derby, but would need to show that he can rate.

I have also seen that HRTV has said he is currently on the fence for the race. Should be an interesting week.

[only11]

Stately Victor...my sleeper....throw out any pletcher horse..

[theveep]

Jackson Bend is my sleeper. He has competed against top class and he's shown a lot of potential on the dirt. We'll see how a new rider will work.

Lou

[Grits]

Toss Lukas' Dublin.

Only horse on the grounds who fully understands the terms:

BOLT, DRIFT, and OH HELL FORGET IT.

And the only one with two workout attempts, one complete, inside 24 hours. What a mess.

http://www.drf.com/news/article/112448.html (Saturday's work.)

http://www.drf.com/news/article/112472.html (Sunday's trying again.)

[Smarty Cide]

Tosses:

Line of David, Nobles Promise, Mission Impazible, endorsment, dublin, deans kitten, interactif, paddy o prado, home boy chris, backtalk

i almost want to toss ice box, but im not going to yet

[GaryG]

Toss American Lion, Discreetly Mine, Exhi, Line Of David, Mission Impazible, Rule, Sidney's Candy and Super Saver.

[soupman2]

Gary- kind of curious. I usually agree with your choices (agree with your toss's except.....) Sidneys Candy. Why are you not on him. He is one of my picks.

Bob

[theveep]

I also don't trust the Sidney's synthetic niche. I would be inclined to toss as well.

[NTamm1215]

I'm tossing Sidney's Candy, Dean's Kitten, Paddy O'Prado, and Discreetly Mine.

I feel like Mission Impazible is going somewhat under the radar.

NT

[RXB]

Can I toss the whole field?

I don't really like any of these horses. I think the race will set up best for off-pace types but I'm hanged if I can figure out which one. Lookin At Lucky is probably the most likely to be in the money but since he's now the probable favourite, that's not going to get me anywhere.

I just saw the early PP's; please note that the second call position and beaten lengths for Mission Impazible in the La Derby is incorrect. It says he was 7th/4.5 but in fact he was laying 3rd or 4th and about 2 lengths off the pace.

[jbrown007]

I'm really surprised people seem fit to toss super saver. The horse has only two races under his belt this year. He not only improved in his last but he rated for pretty much the first time in his career. The horse ran a monster race first time around two turns at churchill downs which is a huge plus(See denis the cork, street sense,limehouse(4th),cliffs edge (5th)) Also he gets calvin borel to ride and he is the best derby jockey there is=fearless. People complain that he couldn't pass line of david but remember it was his first time rating and line got loose on the lead which will not happen in the derby. he also got away with some slow middle fractions going 110^3 to 136^2 which is close to a 26 second clip(very slow). I think he is going to run huge if he doesn't get a shitty post and can stay away from the hot pace(he is the only proven front runner to try and rate)

[philofbelloni]

Originally Posted by theveep

Jackson Bend is my sleeper. He has competed against top class and he's shown a lot of potential on the dirt. We'll see how a new rider will work.

Lou

The first 1/2 mile looks like a suicidal pace with up to 10 horses gunning for the front. I'm banking on a 22-22.3 first 1/4 with no more than a :23.2 second quarter. This race will set up super for both JB and Ice Box provided the first half comes in under 46 seconds. Adding Lucky for a tri box. I'll factor Devil May Care provided she skips the Oaks. The gals have been carrying the thoroughbred storyline for the past year. Just a hunch.

Tossing Stately Victor (uninspiring on dirt), Dublin (either creates his own trouble or doesn't fire), Conveyance/American Lion/SuperSaver/LineofDavid/Rule(if not raining)/SidneyCandy (all pure speed and will kill themselves for lead). Note that Sidney's Candy's 46KAlw in Dec scared me off of him. He was 4th at the 1/2 mile mark and just gave up. If he does end up with the Derby lead, I'm not sure he can sustain the pace given he's only run 9 furlongs once.

A few others simply don't belong in the field...Homeboykris/Interactif/Backtalk.

[cj's dad]

Originally Posted by Dahoss9698

I agree in regards to Rule. He ran the best race in the Florida Derby, but would need to show that he can rate.

I have also seen that HRTV has said he is currently on the fence for the race. Should be an interesting week.

Odd statement in as much as he ran third !!

[OFFandRUNNING10]

I think distance is a major issue in the derby for Rule. He is going to be a toss for me. I do not think he will be able to finish out well with the early pressure and added distance.