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01-17-2018, 11:11 AM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: Kentucky
Posts: 433
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The Importance of Lowering Takeout in Horse Betting
Quote:
My column from New Year’s Day drew so much reaction I thought I would follow up on it. If you did not read it, I compared the mentality of a sports bettor with that of a horseplayer. A sports bettor is happy to bet into 11 to 10 odds. Meanwhile most self-respecting horseplayers will almost never make a straight bet on the favorite.
Many commented that I was comparing apples to oranges. That sports bettors are playing a side or a team, so it’s an “either or” bet. In horse racing, a favorite, depending on field size, may have to defeat as many as five to 11 other horses. That makes it a more daunting task.
[Snip]
Thesis:
I believe what horse racing will need to do is fight fire with fire. If legal sports betting is offered with a 10 percent hold of 12 to 10, then the horse racing industry should reduce takeout on win, place and show betting also to 10 percent.
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https://www.americasbestracing.net/g...-horse-betting
Richard Eng is the author of “Betting on Horse Racing for Dummies,” an introductory book for newcomers to the sport of horse racing.
Last edited by PaceAdvantage; 01-20-2018 at 04:34 PM.
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01-17-2018, 01:27 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,285
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fred Mertz
My column from New Year’s Day drew so much reaction I thought I would follow up on it. If you did not read it, I compared the mentality of a sports bettor with that of a horseplayer. A sports bettor is happy to bet into 11 to 10 odds. Meanwhile most self-respecting horseplayers will almost never make a straight bet on the favorite.
Many commented that I was comparing apples to oranges. That sports bettors are playing a side or a team, so it’s an “either or” bet. In horse racing, a favorite, depending on field size, may have to defeat as many as five to 11 other horses. That makes it a more daunting task.
[Snip]
Thesis:
I believe what horse racing will need to do is fight fire with fire. If legal sports betting is offered with a 10 percent hold of 12 to 10, then the horse racing industry should reduce takeout on win, place and show betting also to 10 percent.
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You will have to get a little deeper in to the how-to for a track to offer 11-10 or 12-10 to the bettors through a pari-mutuel system. With a PM system the tracks would have a vested interest in a favorite losing. If a favorite has 40% of the pool the vig would only be collected from the 60% losers. With a long shot having 5% of the pool the track would collect on 95% of the bets. There is no mechanism such as point spread movements to equalize the betting as there is in sports betting.
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01-17-2018, 02:44 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 4,520
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fred Mertz
Thesis:
I believe what horse racing will need to do is fight fire with fire. If legal sports betting is offered with a 10 percent hold of 12 to 10, then the horse racing industry should reduce takeout on win, place and show betting also to 10 percent.
https://www.americasbestracing.net/g...-horse-betting
Richard Eng is the author of “Betting on Horse Racing for Dummies,” an introductory book for newcomers to the sport of horse racing.
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Well Monmouth has reduced the vig to 12% on exchange bets, WPS.
when I cash on a chalk I pay 12% and no breakage. seems very civilized.
Of course most likely Monmouth will be the first racetrack also to take sports bets.
wonder what will hill will set the vig up at Monmouth.
Allan
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01-17-2018, 03:53 PM
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#4
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Registered user
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: FALIRIKON DELTA
Posts: 4,439
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fred Mertz
My column from New Year’s Day drew so much reaction I thought I would follow up on it. If you did not read it, I compared the mentality of a sports bettor with that of a horseplayer. A sports bettor is happy to bet into 11 to 10 odds. Meanwhile most self-respecting horseplayers will almost never make a straight bet on the favorite.
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The highlighted section of your posting is a huge self contradiction; if anything it opens the discussion about your definition of a "self-respecting horseplayer".. Very simply stated, the favorite becomes one because it is backed by the majority of the bettors who obviously are making straight bets on it.
__________________
whereof one cannot speak thereof one must be silent
Ludwig Wittgenstein
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01-17-2018, 05:59 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fred Mertz
My column from New Year’s Day drew so much reaction I thought I would follow up on it. If you did not read it, I compared the mentality of a sports bettor with that of a horseplayer. A sports bettor is happy to bet into 11 to 10 odds. Meanwhile most self-respecting horseplayers will almost never make a straight bet on the favorite.
Many commented that I was comparing apples to oranges. That sports bettors are playing a side or a team, so it’s an “either or” bet. In horse racing, a favorite, depending on field size, may have to defeat as many as five to 11 other horses. That makes it a more daunting task.
[Snip]
Thesis:
I believe what horse racing will need to do is fight fire with fire. If legal sports betting is offered with a 10 percent hold of 12 to 10, then the horse racing industry should reduce takeout on win, place and show betting also to 10 percent.
https://www.americasbestracing.net/g...-horse-betting
Richard Eng is the author of “Betting on Horse Racing for Dummies,” an introductory book for newcomers to the sport of horse racing.
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Technically the takeout on a 11-10 vigorish sports bet is 1/21, or about 4.8 percent. Not 10 percent.
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01-17-2018, 06:07 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,285
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
Technically the takeout on a 11-10 vigorish sports bet is 1/21, or about 4.8 percent. Not 10 percent.
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That was stated in the article, although 5% was used. The actual vig is 4.545%, or 1/22.
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01-17-2018, 07:27 PM
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#7
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,831
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeltaLover
The highlighted section of your posting is a huge self contradiction; if anything it opens the discussion about your definition of a "self-respecting horseplayer".. Very simply stated, the favorite becomes one because it is backed by the majority of the bettors who obviously are making straight bets on it.
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Like the old joke, no one goes there anymore, it's too crowded.
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01-17-2018, 10:58 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,570
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If sports-betting is offered at 12-10 after "legalization"...then it will be a worse gamble than horse racing is right now. An first glance the 10% takeout on sports-betting looks inviting, but there isn't enough "room for error" when there are only two betting sides to a wager...and the winning gambler is looking to capitalize on his competition's "mistakes". That's why the short fields that we currently see at the track are the anathema of the profit-seeking horseplayer. The shorter the field, the lesser the betting options...and the more unlikely our chances become of finding an "overlay" by capitalizing on our competition's mistakes.
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
Last edited by thaskalos; 01-17-2018 at 10:59 PM.
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01-18-2018, 03:28 AM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
If sports-betting is offered at 12-10 after "legalization"...then it will be a worse gamble than horse racing is right now. An first glance the 10% takeout on sports-betting looks inviting, but there isn't enough "room for error" when there are only two betting sides to a wager...and the winning gambler is looking to capitalize on his competition's "mistakes". That's why the short fields that we currently see at the track are the anathema of the profit-seeking horseplayer. The shorter the field, the lesser the betting options...and the more unlikely our chances become of finding an "overlay" by capitalizing on our competition's mistakes.
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It is even worse than thar.
Nobody really beats sports long term even at 11 to 10, because there aren't any information asymmetries. It is the Efficient Markets Hypothesis in pure form.
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01-18-2018, 04:04 AM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,125
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And those guys in Vegas that set the spread, are pretty damn good.
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01-18-2018, 10:11 AM
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#11
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,830
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
It is even worse than thar.
Nobody really beats sports long term even at 11 to 10, because there aren't any information asymmetries. It is the Efficient Markets Hypothesis in pure form.
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You mean all those touts I hear on sports radio are lying?
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01-18-2018, 12:01 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,570
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fred Mertz
My column from New Year’s Day drew so much reaction I thought I would follow up on it. If you did not read it, I compared the mentality of a sports bettor with that of a horseplayer. A sports bettor is happy to bet into 11 to 10 odds. Meanwhile most self-respecting horseplayers will almost never make a straight bet on the favorite.
Many commented that I was comparing apples to oranges. That sports bettors are playing a side or a team, so it’s an “either or” bet. In horse racing, a favorite, depending on field size, may have to defeat as many as five to 11 other horses. That makes it a more daunting task.
[Snip]
Thesis:
I believe what horse racing will need to do is fight fire with fire. If legal sports betting is offered with a 10 percent hold of 12 to 10, then the horse racing industry should reduce takeout on win, place and show betting also to 10 percent.
https://www.americasbestracing.net/g...-horse-betting
Richard Eng is the author of “Betting on Horse Racing for Dummies,” an introductory book for newcomers to the sport of horse racing.
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Does this post imply that the poster Fred Mertz is Richard Eng, in real life?
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
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01-18-2018, 12:15 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: Kentucky
Posts: 433
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
Does this post imply that the poster Fred Mertz is Richard Eng, in real life?
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Not at all. I included what I believe to be appropriate excerpts and attribution to the author on this never-ending topic.
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01-18-2018, 12:48 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,570
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fred Mertz
Not at all. I included what I believe to be appropriate excerpts and attribution to the author on this never-ending topic.
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Sorry. When you began your initial post here with My column from New Year's Day...I honestly thought that you were the author of the piece.
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
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01-18-2018, 02:05 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Benton, La.
Posts: 1,841
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Somebody may have some insight on this, with all the expenses a track has, could they show a profit reducing the take to 10%? 4.5%? Keep in mind that the track puts up a large percentage of the purse money, pays taxes on the money wagered, and has overhead like any business. Maybe someone in the know can tell us at what take % the track breaks even, then we could have a discussion about the take. Sure everybody wants a better deal, a lower take but what is realistic?
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