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12-25-2018, 11:52 PM
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#31
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,554
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
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If the pick-4 outcome comes:
8-7-8-3...or
8-7-8-9...or
8-7-8-10
Will you cash with your ABC ticket?
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
Last edited by thaskalos; 12-25-2018 at 11:54 PM.
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12-25-2018, 11:54 PM
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#32
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Smarty Pants
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Every Vote Counts
Posts: 3,160
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
I am not arguing with you, friend...I am arguing with TLG...who last replied to me that "the ABC method actually allows for more horses and a lower investment". If TLG had stated, as you've done, that the cheaper ABC ticket would necessarily exclude certain "unlikely" horses...then I wouldn't be disagreeing with him either.
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No horse necessarily gets eliminated or excluded as you put it, they just get deemphasized.
Not exactly sure what the argument is at this point.
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12-25-2018, 11:58 PM
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#33
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,123
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
If the pick-4 outcome comes:
8-7-8-3...or
8-7-8-9...or
8-7-8-10
Will you cash with your ABC ticket?
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No. The reasoning is the  in the first leg is 20-1 and IMO, not a strong play, is worth including just in case. But the $ chasing that horse minimal.
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12-26-2018, 12:01 AM
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#34
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Smarty Pants
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Every Vote Counts
Posts: 3,160
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Who ever said anyone can gamble (or invest) without taking risks? 
Last edited by Buckeye; 12-26-2018 at 12:05 AM.
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12-26-2018, 12:01 AM
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#35
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 5,594
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Look at line 1 which is all A's. If that hits which long term we'll say is more likely to win you hit for $1.50 and with caveman only $1. You are trying to optimize most likely hit and include less likely just in case. My brain hurts.
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12-26-2018, 12:02 AM
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#36
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,554
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Buckeye
No horse necessarily gets eliminated or excluded as you put it, they just get deemphasized.
Not exactly sure what the argument is at this point.
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"Deemphasized"? 
Look, friend. You said that you were going to create a cheaper ticket, and now you are theorizing...even though I told you that you could pick whichever A-B-C horses you want. THAT'S the argument. Create a cheaper ticket...and the "argument" will be over.
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
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12-26-2018, 01:16 AM
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#37
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,554
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
No. The reasoning is the in the first leg is 20-1 and IMO, not a strong play, is worth including just in case. But the $ chasing that horse minimal. |
I understand the reasoning...and it's a valid one. But by making the caveman ticket with a $1 minimum, you brought the wager to an unrealistic $75...which is WAY more than what the average player would wager on a pick-4. Had you made the caveman ticket for a more realistic 50-cents...then the investment disparity between the two wagering methods would be more profound...and your reasoning wouldn't look so "reasonable".
As I said before...the ABC method is indeed the better wagering option, but it costs way more to properly implement this method while covering the same number of horses, when both methods start with the same wagering unit as a base. Plus...it requires a certain precision of handicapping which the majority of the horseplayers -- in spite of what they claim -- simply do not possess. I could easily be wrong here...but I happen to think that it's a great fallacy to believe that "advanced" wagering methods could be properly employed when our handicapping methods are still in the "underdeveloped" stage.
In my daily horseplaying excursions...I run into many, many players who tell me that they are "good enough" handicappers...but they just need a little help in the "bet-construction" aspect of the game. "If I only knew how to structure my bets a little better...then I would beat this game without a problem"...they tell me. And then they shout obscenities at me when I walk away from them while shaking my head. 
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
Last edited by thaskalos; 12-26-2018 at 01:21 AM.
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12-26-2018, 01:27 AM
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#38
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,628
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
TLG stipulated that the ABC ticket would include more horses for a lesser cost.
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Did he? Pretty sure he didn't. But I might be wrong.
Look, the ABC method has been spelled out in print and on the web for ages. It's pretty easy to find it somewhere if you don't understand it.
There is nothing to argue about, at least not that which is currently being argued in this thread.
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12-26-2018, 01:29 AM
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#39
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,554
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
Did he? Pretty sure he didn't. But I might be wrong.
Look, the ABC method has been spelled out in print and on the web for ages. It's pretty easy to find it somewhere if you don't understand it.
There is nothing to argue about, at least not that which is currently being argued in this thread.
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Tell me...what exactly do you think is being argued in this thread? And...what makes you think that I don't understand what the ABC method is?
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
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12-26-2018, 01:34 AM
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#40
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,554
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Here, PA...
Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy
Incorrect. The ABC method actually allows for more horses and a lower investment, though it is weighted towards your stronger opinions in each race, than a Caveman play.
You're getting this all wrong. Sorry.
Once again, you are advocating for people to play more simplistic wagers ( or maybe not bet at all ) and not discussing this method ( which I'm not sure you understand ).
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Here is what TLG replied to me. Am I understanding it wrong? Where is he implying that the ABC ticket will cost more...or that some unlikely horses must be excluded in order to keep the cost below that of the "caveman" ticket?
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
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12-26-2018, 01:35 AM
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#41
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,628
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
Tell me...what exactly do you think is being argued in this thread? And...what makes you think that I don't understand what the ABC method is?
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Because you kept asking people for examples...
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12-26-2018, 01:36 AM
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#42
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,628
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
Here is what TLG replied to me. Am I understanding it wrong? Where is he implying that the ABC ticket will cost more...or that some unlikely horses must be excluded in order to keep the cost below that of the "caveman" ticket?
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OK, so I was wrong...I said I might be wrong.
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12-26-2018, 01:37 AM
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#43
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,554
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
Because you kept asking people for examples...
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The people whom I asked for examples implied that a cheaper ABC ticket could be constructed while using the same horses as those on the caveman ticket. I said that such a thing couldn't be done...and it CAN'T!
Please pay a little more attention to the thread before you chime in and correct me.
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
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12-26-2018, 01:38 AM
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#44
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,628
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
Please pay a little more attention to the thread before you chime in and correct me.
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HAH! Good one.
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12-26-2018, 01:39 AM
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#45
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,554
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
OK, so I was wrong...I said I might be wrong.
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Yes...you were wrong. Will you now suggest to TLG that he go and do some studying up on the ABC method, on those websites that you mentioned before to me?
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
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