What is REAL Handicapping and So what?

[098poi]

Originally Posted by elhelmete

Stop while you're behind.

I should put this on my bathroom mirror. Might save myself a lot of headaches opening my mouth when I shouldn't. Not just about racing but everything!

[ultracapper]

2nd that. My foot fits so snug in my mouth, my tongue's shaped like a bunion.

[JerryBoyle]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

No. I think that 6 groups account for $1.6b or a little more. (Someone posted on PA a recent estimate that was a little higher.)

They aren't all doing $625. One admitted to it, and that included all his wagering in N.A.

I'd guess it is about 1/7 of all handle.

Maybe 4% at tracks with low rebates and large pools (like SA), to as much as 35% at high rebate/low handle tracks (like CT).

BTW, I actually knew someone from outside the US who played only one track: SA. He wagered $10m per year there and had a deal where he could bet directly to the track.

Thanks, Dave, your insight is always fascinating. Just to clarify, your estimation is that the top teams can still earn >$20 million in the North American markets alone? Or is this estimate for all betting markets?

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by JerryBoyle

Thanks, Dave, your insight is always fascinating. Just to clarify, your estimation is that the top teams can still earn >$20 million in the North American markets alone? Or is this estimate for all betting markets?

U.S. alone.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

How often do you Dutch in the win pool and what is your criteria for doing so...?

VERY occasionally, I make multiple win bets-generally to exploit a dead chalk, or when some particular running style, or likely trip, appears flattered.


FWIW, this almost NEVER works for me. And, again, to rear my true dinosaur head: without a strong opinion on who WILL win-and by that, I mean some particular horse whose attributes much appeal to me-, I am doomed to blow my wager(s). In other words, conventional concepts of value aside, betting ON horses works MUCH better for me than betting AGAINST horses.


In fact, some of my best hits, both on gimmicks and win bets, have come on longshots I saw the potential in to defeat chalks I deemed very formidable.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by mountainman

VERY occasionally, I make multiple win bets-generally to exploit a dead chalk, or when some particular running style, or likely trip, appears flattered.


FWIW, this almost NEVER works for me. And, again, to rear my true dinosaur head: without a strong opinion on who WILL win-and by that, I mean some particular horse whose attributes much appeal to me-, I am doomed to blow my wager(s). In other words, conventional concepts of value aside, betting ON horses works MUCH better for me than betting AGAINST horses.


In fact, some of my best hits, both on gimmicks and win bets, have come on longshots I saw the potential in to defeat chalks I deemed very formidable.

Thanks, this helps quite a lot...I’ve been toying with the idea about dutching 2 horses, provided the combined return exceeds 50% of the wager...but maybe now I just stick to finding that one price horse in the race...