Advanced Analytics Coming to Racing?

[peteman]

Statts LLC and Equibase to develop new stats for horse players.

Which brings to mind what type of stat or formula, would we like to see?
I'd like to see some type of pace pressure gauge,in the pp's to help point
out if the race will go early or late.

Story link
http://www.paulickreport.com/news/th...company-stats/

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by peteman

Statts LLC and Equibase to develop new stats for horse players.

Which brings to mind what type of stat or formula, would we like to see?
I'd like to see some type of pace pressure gauge,in the pp's to help point
out if the race will go early or late.

Story link
http://www.paulickreport.com/news/th...company-stats/

Be careful what you wish for. Back in the good old days in the 70s, the west coast DRF did not show internal fractions for races in the PPs. I kept extensive records of the fractions and was able to get unbelievable prices on horses that had a substantial pace advantage. Of course the advantage quickly disappeared when the DRF did me a "favor" by printing the fractions.

The only info that I want to be readily available is the info I don't use or won't use but might have the same affect on other players as fractions did to me.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by AndyC

Be careful what you wish for. Back in the good old days in the 70s, the west coast DRF did not show internal fractions for races in the PPs. I kept extensive records of the fractions and was able to get unbelievable prices on horses that had a substantial pace advantage. Of course the advantage quickly disappeared when the DRF did me a "favor" by printing the fractions.

The only info that I want to be readily available is the info I don't use or won't use but might have the same affect on other players as fractions did to me.

I agree 100%.

All my energy goes into things that are NOT in the PPs or in ways of using things that are in the PPs better.

[Valuist]

No good horse bettor is going to want more information in the DRF (unless they deem it irrelevant). It's getting more and more difficult to get any edge.

Having said that, I really wonder what STATS could bring to the table. They don't have experience in the sport. And as sports bettors know, SOME analytics are valuable, but some create distortions.

[thaskalos]

I see the affect that TRAKUS has had on the handicapping process...and I remain sceptical.

[Chaka26]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I see the affect that TRAKUS has had on the handicapping process...and I remain sceptical.

Chicklets sure help me watching races

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by peteman

Statts LLC and Equibase to develop new stats for horse players.

Which brings to mind what type of stat or formula, would we like to see?
I'd like to see some type of pace pressure gauge,in the pp's to help point
out if the race will go early or late.

Story link
http://www.paulickreport.com/news/th...company-stats/

The game needs to get harder, not easier.

Stuff like this just makes the market more efficient, which in turn makes the takeout harder to beat. If every horse's odds are exactly as they should be, that means every horse is theoretically neg 15 (or whatever the takeout is) ROI.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

The game needs to get harder, not easier.

Stuff like this just makes the market more efficient, which in turn makes the takeout harder to beat. If every horse's odds are exactly as they should be, that means every horse is theoretically neg 15 (or whatever the takeout is) ROI.

I want as many commercial/analytic programs developed and sold as cheaply as possible. The more players these programs keep in the game the better, and just might draw in enough new players for the game to survive until full contraction takes place......Nothing will duplicate what I do, thus no dilution problems for me.

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I agree 100%.

All my energy goes into things that are NOT in the PPs or in ways of using things that are in the PPs better.

I also agree. I think I spend more time watching the body language in the paddock, post parade and replays than the PP's. Hopefully, this area will be very difficult to report in printed form.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Chaka26

Chicklets sure help me watching races

Me too.

The best use of Trakus is that it makes following horses in big fields easier both during the running of the race and by using the web page in follow up.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

The game needs to get harder, not easier.

Stuff like this just makes the market more efficient, which in turn makes the takeout harder to beat. If every horse's odds are exactly as they should be, that means every horse is theoretically neg 15 (or whatever the takeout is) ROI.

A set of new products doesn't necessarily mean "the public" will automatically use that data correctly . Look at some of the stats in use today - a lot of players don't even know what sample size and distribution mean.

Analytics is in its infancy with many applications and uses, and I think we're a long, long way from "every horse's odds are exactly as they should be...."

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by Hoofless_Wonder

A set of new products doesn't necessarily mean "the public" will automatically use that data correctly . Look at some of the stats in use today - a lot of players don't even know what sample size and distribution mean.

Analytics is in its infancy with many applications and uses, and I think we're a long, long way from "every horse's odds are exactly as they should be...."

So what exactly would the benefit be? Would I more likely benefit from analytics or would it be some group from MIT?

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Me too.

The best use of Trakus is that it makes following horses in big fields easier both during the running of the race and by using the web page in follow up.

If that is your “best use” of Trakus data, you are wasting your time IMHO.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by Hoofless_Wonder

A set of new products doesn't necessarily mean "the public" will automatically use that data correctly . Look at some of the stats in use today - a lot of players don't even know what sample size and distribution mean.

Analytics is in its infancy with many applications and uses, and I think we're a long, long way from "every horse's odds are exactly as they should be...."

You are absolutely correct with your assertion: “a lot of players don't even know what sample size and distribution mean.”

However we should look at the history of handicapping in horseracing and we would find that it wasn’t built upon a foundation of “speed” even though that foundation is and always has been supported by the immutable laws of physics.

Horseracing was built on the premise that the horse with the fastest time wins the race and that is different from saying the “fastest speed” wins the race.

You can argue that the two are the same, but they are not. Time is not considering distance nor environmental impacts such as surface resistivity, surface wind resistance, or aerodynamic drag which speed will consider and this is where ANALYTICS will become powerful by those who apply the impacts correctly.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Originally Posted by AndyC

So what exactly would the benefit be? Would I more likely benefit from analytics or would it be some group from MIT?

The article is pretty vague on what these new "wonder" products would be - only that (of course) they would be "truly innovative and unique". So, until we see some examples, we can only guess at the benefit of these products, and whether or not individual users versus sophisticated groups from MIT will have the most to gain.

Anyone with a database or a model of medium complexity or higher is already engaging in "analytics", assuming the definition is using past performances and results to predict future events. There are challenges to their use, including the quality of the input data, sample sizes, back fitting and testing, formatting to the media and devices of the end users, bridging the gap to translating predictions to wagers, etc. And let's not forget how the trainers would alter their intentions, based on the too many short-priced "analytics" horses. Any really effective product would soon drive prices down, similar to what happened when Beyers became available in the Racing Times.

I'm not saying there isn't room for the use of analytics or a market for new products based on it, but I'm not staying awake at night worrying that favorites will begin to win 60% of the races.