CJ's Weekly DRF/TimeformUS Speed Figure Review

[dasch]

Beyer added points to the race due to the "slow pace"

TimeformUS gave the horses lower numbers but shaded the pace blue for the "slow pace"

I broke out the race and used a different variant and believe the pace was only average to a little slow.

In the end I guess we all basically end at about the same number for the horses so no matter what happens moving forward everybody will be comfortable with what they chose.

[cj]

Originally Posted by dasch

Beyer added points to the race due to the "slow pace"

TimeformUS gave the horses lower numbers but shaded the pace blue for the "slow pace"

I broke out the race and used a different variant and believe the pace was only average to a little slow.

In the end I guess we all basically end at about the same number for the horses so no matter what happens moving forward everybody will be comfortable with what they chose.

I didn't give the horses "lower numbers"...that is what they ran in my opinion. I'm just saying the slow pace is a factor in why. It isn't like a 118 is chopped liver, it is a G3 type number for older males.

[cj]

Originally Posted by dasch

Ok, so let me get this straight, the "slow pace" wasn't a slow pace for Alpha Bird but he ran 5 points lower on your numbers than his last race because of the "slow pace"?

Huh?

This is the part that can be confusing. It was a slow pace for California Chrome, the winner. The winner's final time figure is the baseline for our red/blue coding. That is about the best I can explain it.

I'll try one other way. Let's say a maiden claimer was in the race that is about a 60 type horse. He was in third a length off the opening quarter for a 90 pace figure. Wouldn't that be "fast" for him while still be slow for graded stakes horses? This is the same thing as Alfa Bird, only to the extreme.

[dasch]

Originally Posted by cj

I didn't give the horses "lower numbers"...that is what they ran in my opinion. I'm just saying the slow pace is a factor in why. It isn't like a 118 is chopped liver, it is a G3 type number for older males.

By "gave the horses lower numbers" I meant you gave every horse in the race a lower number than you gave them in their last race(by 3-9 pts)

[cj]

Originally Posted by dasch

By "gave the horses lower numbers" I meant you gave every horse in the race a lower number than you gave them in their last race(by 3-9 pts)

OK but that isn't unusual for a race with a slow pace. If I could run 100 meters in 12 seconds (I can't) but one day I jog the first 20, I could never run my best time. But I could still win a race if I was in against guys that can't crack 14.

In the end, given the last race was consistent with the other races and there was nothing weather related, I try to stick with using the same variant for all the races around the same number of turns. I'm not averse to doing it when I feel there is additional evidence, but when I doubt I don't break out.

I took a lot of grief for doing just that with California Chrome's Derby, but it turned out to be the right decision. I don't get them all right, but I have a pretty good record on the tough calls. The same happened with American Pharoah's "slow" Derby this year. I had it rated fast and stuck by it. He didn't let me down either.

[dasch]

Originally Posted by cj

OK but that isn't unusual for a race with a slow pace. If I could run 100 meters in 12 seconds (I can't) but one day I jog the first 20, I could never run my best time. But I could still win a race if I was in against guys that can't crack 14.

In the end, given the last race was consistent with the other races and there was nothing weather related, I try to stick with using the same variant for all the races around the same number of turns. I'm not averse to doing it when I feel there is additional evidence, but when I doubt I don't break out.

I took a lot of grief for doing just that with California Chrome's Derby, but it turned out to be the right decision. I don't get them all right, but I have a pretty good record on the tough calls. The same happened with American Pharoah's "slow" Derby this year. I had it rated fast and stuck by it. He didn't let me down either.

And you and I discussed both of those races and agreed with each other. I was also 100% sure that we were on the right side then which is why I was pretty surprised this time. The reason I will say things with such certainty is because my methodology doesn't involve ANY opinion.

There wont be any proving right or wrong on this one because everybody will adjust either for the perceived slow pace or if it was already added in we all end up at about the same place.

[cj]

I'll be on today around 12:10 ET with Dave Weaver and Tom Cassidy.

[cj]

Did a Podcast with Jason Beem, listen here if you have a second.

https://www.betamerica.com/extra/barn-episode-12516/

[raybo]

Enjoyed it a lot CJ. Well done, both of you! BetAmerica is my ADW (the only one that will allow some of us in certain parts of the country to bet online by the way).

[cj]

Originally Posted by raybo

Enjoyed it a lot CJ. Well done, both of you! BetAmerica is my ADW (the only one that will allow some of us in certain parts of the country to bet online by the way).

Thanks, Jason made it easy, was all on the fly. I had no idea what was coming but he clearly did his homework.

[Zaf]

Originally Posted by cj

Did a Podcast with Jason Beem, listen here if you have a second.

https://www.betamerica.com/extra/barn-episode-12516/

Great Interview !!!! Mr. Beem has a great sense of humor

Z

[cj]

https://www.tvg.com/blog/2016/02/02/...-january-31st/

Be on a little after 12 ET today discussing some of the races in the link above with Dave Weaver and Britney Eurton.

[cj]

Same time today, a little after 12. I'll be on with Matt and Dave.

https://www.tvg.com/blog/2016/02/09/...-february-7th/

[cj]

Coming on in a few minutes with Matt and Scott Hazelton.

https://www.tvg.com/blog/2016/02/17/...s-day-weekend/

[cj]

Switching up a little and going on air a little after 1pm ET today, 11am PT.