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Old 12-10-2023, 05:44 PM   #61
sjk
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Perhaps it was inevitable that in a day of short fields and fast computers the pools would be so efficient that no one can make money.

Has anyone modeled out the decline of retail dollars whether it be my dollars that have decreased because I can see there is a lot less opportunity than there used to be or the twice a year guy that can't remember the last time he had a winning day.

Declining retail dollars make the pools more efficient and inefficiencies are what keep us all in business. This has to be affecting the CAW returns and opportunity set. I have never understood how they were able to deploy so much action when to my eyes a lot of races look very well priced.

Hard to turn the clock back on the analysis that has made the action efficient and it may have been inevitable to a level but the rebates have made it much worse.
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Old 12-10-2023, 05:59 PM   #62
Sheffwed
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learn from other jurisdictions

Quote:
Originally Posted by sjk View Post
Perhaps it was inevitable that in a day of short fields and fast computers the pools would be so efficient that no one can make money.

Has anyone modeled out the decline of retail dollars whether it be my dollars that have decreased because I can see there is a lot less opportunity than there used to be or the twice a year guy that can't remember the last time he had a winning day.

Declining retail dollars make the pools more efficient and inefficiencies are what keep us all in business. This has to be affecting the CAW returns and opportunity set. I have never understood how they were able to deploy so much action when to my eyes a lot of races look very well priced.

Hard to turn the clock back on the analysis that has made the action efficient and it may have been inevitable to a level but the rebates have made it much worse.

Bring back on course bookmakers, like they have in England, it would bring people back to the track

And allow gamblers to "take the price" like you can in any betting shop in the UK

If it works there, it can work here

Both would put computer assistant wagering at less of an advantage

Of course in the UK they also have betting in running, which would be cool too

Last edited by Sheffwed; 12-10-2023 at 06:01 PM.
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Old 12-10-2023, 09:01 PM   #63
Saratoga
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Don't blame the CAW's.......Blame the States that took rebates away...


I had no problems when I was collecting my piece...


Then New York f%^ked us and the others followed


If CAW's can get rebates , why can't we???
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Old 12-10-2023, 09:31 PM   #64
the little guy
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Accuracy is certainly at a premium in this thread.
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Old 12-10-2023, 11:58 PM   #65
lamboguy
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Originally Posted by Saratoga View Post
That was some bold move to buy into ownership.....

If your horse(s) don't produced checks coming in ...then your doomed

The monthly fee ( 5000+ ) will keep coming as long as your horse is stabled

I wish you well!!
thank you, i need all the good wishes i can get.
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Old 12-11-2023, 12:13 AM   #66
Jeff P
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Originally Posted by Saratoga View Post
Don't blame the CAW's.......Blame the States that took rebates away...


I had no problems when I was collecting my piece...


Then New York f%^ked us and the others followed


If CAW's can get rebates , why can't we???
Don't blame the individual states. They didn't decide to '86 rebates and player rewards on their own.

It was Tracks and Horsemen's Alphabet Groups who lobbied State Legislatures and Governor's Offices to write Source Market Fee into state law.

Found this page at the Global Gaming site.

Global Gaming | July 1, 2020
Source Market Fees
https://globalracing.com/source-market-fees/

Quote:
Source Market fees are an entirely US construct. They are meant to help local tracks and horsemen stay economically viable when most wagering is happening online and far away from the actual tracks.

In some cases, they are a small reasonable amount where the patron resides within a specific distance from the track (50-mile radius or so). In other cases, it is a fee applied to anyone living in the entire state. Even if there was never a chance of that patron ever visiting a track.

While the fees intended to help protect the horsemen and tracks, in the end, the largest effect has been to penalize the bettors. At a minimum adding them causes bettors to lose rewards, loyalty programs, and other incentives. Those incentives help to drive wagering activity, which raises revenue for all parties. At worst the source market fees are high enough that wagering sites must prevent bettors from making wagers at all. In every case, an extra fee added to handle directly impacts bettors and lowers handle.

If you live in a state like Virginia where the source market fee is 10.5%:

If you wager through an ADW: The ADW has to pay 10.5% of every dollar you wager to the State of Virginia.

Obviously, 10.5% is high enough that it's all but impossible for Virginia players to get rebates.

But that's hardly the worst change in state law I've seen.

In 2007, Arizona track management and the horsemen's alphabet group successfully lobbied the AZ Governor's Office and State Legislature to make it a FELONY for both bettor and bet taker to place a bet or accept a bet on horse racing from anywhere outside the track's "wagering enclosure."

In 2009 I attended a number of meetings between new track management at Yavapai Downs, new leadership of the AZ HBPA, track management at Turf Paradise, and the AZ Governor's Office in a joint effort to get a change in state law.

At first the effort was met with a lot of resistance.

I can't tell you how many times someone played dumb as if they didn't know how the law came to be in the first place and said:
Quote:
There's nothing I can do. It's State Law.
As it turned out in 2009 there actually was nothing we could do.

Even though we had the backing of one of AZ's tracks (Yavapai) and the backing of the AZ HBPA, then Governor Janet Napolitano told us she couldn't sign a new bill reversing a change you guys (not me but the others in the room) practically begged us to make two years ago. You'll need to wait a few years. We can revisit it then.

Don't blame the states.

Any blame for Source Market Fee rests squarely on the shoulders of track management and horsemen.

Who by the way seem more than happy with Source Market Fee.

This, despite the fact it has turned a LOT of horseplayers into ex-horseplayers.


-jp
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Last edited by Jeff P; 12-11-2023 at 12:19 AM.
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Old 12-11-2023, 05:50 AM   #67
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Accuracy is certainly at a premium in this thread.
You made a comment earlier in this thread that you wanted to "somehow" discuss this. Then you make a comment like this, which in my opinion is sort of an act of deflection. You don't like what is being said, so rather than point out and discuss the inaccuracies, you make a sarcastic post like this that can be used to try to discredit every post in the thread. In my opinion this is very weak.

It is very strange. You and your bosses have a lot more to lose than we (most of us-cj is an obvious exception) do. We have a game we love to lose, you, your bosses the horsemen and everyone in the industry have a career to lose. Imo, you and your bosses should actually be a little thankful that people that take this game very seriously (not talking about me, I am talking about us collectively) are sharing there thoughts on the subject. I am not going to go back and forth with other people in this forum as to who is right and wrong when I have done so for years and nobody in this industry pays attention anyhow. I know I am right, they think they are right. It is okay, everyone has opinions. There is a search function if anyone wants to read my opinions from last month, last year or 5 years ago. I stand behind every post I made on the subject. As Castaway would say, I always say the same thing. The key takeaway is I think by now just about all of us know that the status quo is going to bring this industry to it's knees.

I realize there is a feeling of intellectual superiority among the top brass in this sport. However every year it becomes more and more evident that they were wrong all along and their actions are very much to blame for the huge drop off in retail volume in this sport. The top brass will also deflect and blame it on competition, changing taste, intolerance of horses dying, too many drugs being used, etc, etc. While those are factors that have led to the decline in the sport, they are not the reason the sport is going to die. They are a lot of positives going on in the gambling world right now. Isn't it time for the racing to join the advantage gambling market and as I said years ago, stop being the ugly stepchild. Right now when I go to my local casino in Vegas there are a huge race/sports book full off people watching Sunday and Monday night football and about 5 people in the Keno corner. Is your industry really looking forward to the day that the race book becomes another Keno corner. It certainly already is at night during the Harness races.
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Old 12-11-2023, 08:45 AM   #68
lamboguy
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Suffolk Downs has been closed for 5 years and they still get a source marketing fee. the last 5 years they only ran 6 days a year.

no question this impacts rebates and has scared people away from the game.

in the scope of things though, source marketing is not the biggest problem that the horse racing and betting industry needs to overcome.
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Old 12-11-2023, 08:53 AM   #69
Saratoga
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This might be off the wall...

But why don't we make a statement by having ALL members not bet one whole weekend?

(NOT Christmas weekend )

Last edited by Saratoga; 12-11-2023 at 08:55 AM.
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Old 12-11-2023, 09:02 AM   #70
castaway01
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Poindexter View Post
You made a comment earlier in this thread that you wanted to "somehow" discuss this. Then you make a comment like this, which in my opinion is sort of an act of deflection. You don't like what is being said, so rather than point out and discuss the inaccuracies, you make a sarcastic post like this that can be used to try to discredit every post in the thread. In my opinion this is very weak.

It is very strange. You and your bosses have a lot more to lose than we (most of us-cj is an obvious exception) do. We have a game we love to lose, you, your bosses the horsemen and everyone in the industry have a career to lose. Imo, you and your bosses should actually be a little thankful that people that take this game very seriously (not talking about me, I am talking about us collectively) are sharing there thoughts on the subject. I am not going to go back and forth with other people in this forum as to who is right and wrong when I have done so for years and nobody in this industry pays attention anyhow. I know I am right, they think they are right. It is okay, everyone has opinions. There is a search function if anyone wants to read my opinions from last month, last year or 5 years ago. I stand behind every post I made on the subject. As Castaway would say, I always say the same thing. The key takeaway is I think by now just about all of us know that the status quo is going to bring this industry to it's knees.

I realize there is a feeling of intellectual superiority among the top brass in this sport. However every year it becomes more and more evident that they were wrong all along and their actions are very much to blame for the huge drop off in retail volume in this sport. The top brass will also deflect and blame it on competition, changing taste, intolerance of horses dying, too many drugs being used, etc, etc. While those are factors that have led to the decline in the sport, they are not the reason the sport is going to die. They are a lot of positives going on in the gambling world right now. Isn't it time for the racing to join the advantage gambling market and as I said years ago, stop being the ugly stepchild. Right now when I go to my local casino in Vegas there are a huge race/sports book full off people watching Sunday and Monday night football and about 5 people in the Keno corner. Is your industry really looking forward to the day that the race book becomes another Keno corner. It certainly already is at night during the Harness races.
No need to call me out, I'm not in this argument.

But since you're picking a fight, in this thread where people are saying "the racetracks should stop rebates" when they're not the ones GIVING the rebates (though I guess we've learned some of them have financial stakes in the places that do, which is what started this thread), I can't blame someone in the industry questioning the accuracy of the arguments.

As I say every time you post how takeout should be cut to 10%, yes in fantasy land that would be wonderful. And I am not defending the current system, only speaking of reality and not fantasy. But reality is that 95% of wagering comes from off track. When source fees are 6-10%, that takeout cut would immediately end most ADW wagering and drive the biggest bettors from the game. Handle would drop by half or more overnight, and many tracks are already barely scraping by. You're telling a business to have a sale where they sell their product at a loss---and the sale never ends. I personally can understand why they're choosing the slow bleeding over immediately cutting their own throats. If you love the game, it's hard to watch, but it doesn't make your arguments any more logical financially the 100th time you post them than the 1st.
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Old 12-11-2023, 09:52 AM   #71
Dan H
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... nobody mentions that NYRA told the CAW groups that they couldn't bet into the WPS pools with less than two minutes to post...
This two-minute limitation is important to me as a recreational player. It is evidence that NYRA understands the optics. But I'll need proof. I'll watch a few replays from AQU last weekend to see if any odds shifted after the gates opened. If not, then I'll shift my focus to NYRA WPS pools. Thanks, TLG.
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Old 12-11-2023, 10:05 AM   #72
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This two-minute limitation is important to me as a recreational player. It is evidence that NYRA understands the optics. But I'll need proof. I'll watch a few replays from AQU last weekend to see if any odds shifted after the gates opened. If not, then I'll shift my focus to NYRA WPS pools. Thanks, TLG.
Just don't watch Parx re-plays

I've seen odds go in half after gate opens...
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Old 12-11-2023, 10:08 AM   #73
the little guy
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This two-minute limitation is important to me as a recreational player. It is evidence that NYRA understands the optics. But I'll need proof. I'll watch a few replays from AQU last weekend to see if any odds shifted after the gates opened. If not, then I'll shift my focus to NYRA WPS pools. Thanks, TLG.
You need proof? Where have you been for the last year and a half?
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Old 12-11-2023, 10:50 AM   #74
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My background is in corporate finance in the hotel, food service, restaurant and ancillary services industry. I look at all business issues the same way in terms of financial modeling, competitive landscape, strategic planning and other key factors that would contribute to evaluating an industry or individual business. After working full-time in those roles in corporate finance, I started doing some consulting work with gaming businesses with a particular focus on thoroughbred racing because it is my avocation. The work I have done is unbiased, and working in mutuels as a supervisor for nine years at NYRA at Saratoga was a great decision to see from the ground up what goes on at a racetrack. I also did work for other unnamed gaming companies and believe I can comment in an unbiased way.

I started spending more time here because of the problems with wagering margins that I see personally. I was not a winning player but it is clear to me that my loss rate is getting worse. As a result, I read and study more on this business. If I was fortunate enough to have been part of the winning team on the NYRA Strategic Plan consulting work when Chris Kay was in charge as point of reference in terms of the bid timing I would not be commenting as much here as a matter of confidentiality.

My take is there are a lot of egos that make no sense to me arguing points that are readily apparent. There is a lot of "I know more than you" type argument. The key point I am going to make is pretty simple though and it pertains to my NOT being privy to that NYRA strategic planning situation.

Anyone other than a fan who wagers who is part of the industry has a huge pre-determined defensive agenda that bias their viewpoint since they make a living within these big entities. I do not mean those working independently trying to grind a profit betting, or those touting. I literally mean those working for big entities such as CDI, Stronach, NYRA as examples. Those people are not going to be as unbiased as most people on here so those individuals who comment drive more skepticism in me in terms of what they say than most people on here even if there are people who sometimes sound like they are complaining, not fully informed. The bottom line is we should all be nice to each other and professional and not have an agenda. That is the best way to discuss things but there are clearly people on here who do from those big entities.
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Old 12-11-2023, 11:04 AM   #75
Andy Asaro
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff P View Post
Don't blame the individual states. They didn't decide to '86 rebates and player rewards on their own.

It was Tracks and Horsemen's Alphabet Groups who lobbied State Legislatures and Governor's Offices to write Source Market Fee into state law.

Found this page at the Global Gaming site.

Global Gaming | July 1, 2020
Source Market Fees
https://globalracing.com/source-market-fees/




If you live in a state like Virginia where the source market fee is 10.5%:

If you wager through an ADW: The ADW has to pay 10.5% of every dollar you wager to the State of Virginia.

Obviously, 10.5% is high enough that it's all but impossible for Virginia players to get rebates.

But that's hardly the worst change in state law I've seen.

In 2007, Arizona track management and the horsemen's alphabet group successfully lobbied the AZ Governor's Office and State Legislature to make it a FELONY for both bettor and bet taker to place a bet or accept a bet on horse racing from anywhere outside the track's "wagering enclosure."

In 2009 I attended a number of meetings between new track management at Yavapai Downs, new leadership of the AZ HBPA, track management at Turf Paradise, and the AZ Governor's Office in a joint effort to get a change in state law.

At first the effort was met with a lot of resistance.

I can't tell you how many times someone played dumb as if they didn't know how the law came to be in the first place and said:


As it turned out in 2009 there actually was nothing we could do.

Even though we had the backing of one of AZ's tracks (Yavapai) and the backing of the AZ HBPA, then Governor Janet Napolitano told us she couldn't sign a new bill reversing a change you guys (not me but the others in the room) practically begged us to make two years ago. You'll need to wait a few years. We can revisit it then.

Don't blame the states.

Any blame for Source Market Fee rests squarely on the shoulders of track management and horsemen.

Who by the way seem more than happy with Source Market Fee.

This, despite the fact it has turned a LOT of horseplayers into ex-horseplayers.


-jp
.
Good points Jeff

Adds some clarity to the discussion


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