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Old 11-27-2023, 07:45 PM   #1
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Mohawk 11/27/23

By the way my apologies for my typing and grammatical errors on these write ups. Sometimes I get a late start on my capping and before I know it, it is time to head to the race book and I don’t get a chance to proofread. In the future including tonight, I am just going to stop where I am at and leave it at that. I also will start checking late scratches and give an updated post when the scratches come out if needed. Seems like every other horse I like this year gets scratched. Typically there are very few scratches in harness racing so I never really pay any attention to late scratches. Anyways pretty interesting card, at least from a handicapping perspective. Will see if I can back on the right track as the last few weeks have been a struggle for me.

A quick note about last weeks races, the typical race was fast early, slow middle half and fast late ½ which indicates to me that wind was obviously pretty strong that night. Despite the fact that I heard track announcer Chad Rozema say into a bit of a breeze during the call of the 1st race, I am incorporating this into my capping right or wrong. Keep an eye on how this plays out as the night progresses and these horses come back. I did not notice this until I was half way through my handicapping which obviously slowed me down, This tells me that horses on the lead or 1st over in the 2nd and 3rd ¼ were at a disadvantage while horse sitting two hole trips and getting covered up journeys during that part of the race would have been at an advantage.

Race 1) When I look at this race I just don’t see much early speed. I think Roy will leave with Midnight Miracle and should be on the lead throughout. A bit of a tricky read on him. Last out was against better, went 1st over picked up cover far turn and came up empty in the lane. Given the trip I expected more. But going 1st over part of the back stretch may be a legit excuse. Did give her a solid figure for the race. Giving her the edge and would need about 3-1 to make a straight play on her. I am getting a little tired of Bella Cavalla. Earns decent enough figure most races but just seems better as a trifecta filler than an actual win bet. The boss man ran a similar race to Bella Cavalla in last. No gas No Brakes may actually get the trip in here. Could leave and sit a 2 hole trip. On his best has a look, but once again I think trifecta filler is more what I would read him as. Angel with an attitude earned a nice figure in last. Certainly would give her a look off of that race. Prior races not so much. Just going to look at the 7 as a possible bet if the right price. (1-2-3-5 in no particular order are your other contenders).

Race 2) This is sort of an interesting race. Past classer Maticulous will likely take a lot of support after her last race was her 1st start in 4 months. Certainly eligible to improve, was 1st over into that suspected wind and is a big contender in here. Sweet Diesel also was 2nd off a layoff. He showed zero in his comback so I want to try to beat him. B Stoney is 2nd off of a 9 most layoff, his prior race was against nw 12000 k last 5 at pocono. Not sure what to do with him from the 9 hole as he was a well beaten last in his prior race. I will however try to beat him. Going to put BettorBeFlying on top in here. Left and ended up sitting a 3 hole trip in last and never really had any clearance in the lane trying to close into that 26.4 last ¼ (obviously wind aided). 10/16 and 10/21 were solid efforts. Had no chance 11/4 trying to close from last into a 54.4 last ½. 11/11, much the same trying to close from 8th into a last half of 55 flat and a mile that went in 150. I think he should be a pretty square price in here, Maybe 3-1 and is a fairly solid play. Also I like Rock n Zeus. He is a cheapy, but that being said he raced really well in his last. Was overland behind dead cover, race very wide swinging around that dead cover far turn, was starting to get a run going and the winner came out right in front of him and I feel stalled that run and it took him a bit of time to get going again, but closed really well late. Going to pick the race 5-7-4.

Race 3) Not a fan of 6 horse fields. For pick 5 purposes will use the 2-4-6. Of the 3 I think Oney Hall is most interesting as he was 1st over into Logan Park in last so likely victimized by the wind. Might be able to get about 2-1 on Oney Hall in here and I think that would be a fair price.

Race 4) Sort of a race where I dislike a lot more horses than I like. The 1 Quebec Hanover, hasn’t race in 5 weeks. Have to respect his last effort at the Meadowlands, but will he need a race? Warawee Yes, went 1st over into that wind and is eligible to improve. The 6 Carter Michael Deo, nice race 5/8. Scratched sick 5/22 and no races since. J Mac is up but it is a 3 year old who has made over 100k. Of course he is going to drive whether the horse is ready or not. Obviously he can win so watch the tote board on him. I think the 8 Major Dance moves is not without a shot. Left for position and then made a break. The horse he beat 11/9 came back to disappoint in the 11/29 race, but I think it was a case of that horse just not racing well that day. Crystal Baller took a lot of support 11/13, have no idea why. Cleared mid lane closed okay and maybe had some traffic issues late. Obviously a wide open race. I think if spreading you have to use the 1-4-5-6-8 in the pick 5. If you like the 3 or 7 don’t let me talk you out of them It is just a tough race.

Race 5) With the exception of the 8 horse who was racing for the first time in 6 mos in his last and sat in the rear of the pack (basically a complete unknown in here) the rest of this field is very, close in current ability/recent figures. Now Mach Impact was just claimed by Moreau which can (but often not) mean that he will bet get bet off the board and/or will win impressively. From a early speed perspective the 5 is leaving the 7 is leaving, I think J mac can get him to the lead or forwardly placed without to many issues, so he is definitely a contender. Royal Regatta just beat all of these with a perfect 2 hole trip, putting a big smile on the face of fellow poster Sea Biscuit who scored nicely at 23-1 (was actually 30-1 and brought down to 23-1 when BlakesAgent was declared a non starter when breaking before the start-I think he cold decked that exacta as well). A similar trip could be in store today and definitely a contender here. Music to my Gears was bet to favorite in that common race last week and never saw an ounce of daylight. Was claimed and not sold his prior effort was all that, so if well bet I am probably looking to beat him. Procrastinator is a bit interesting. If the wind did him in last week, his prior effort was rock solid. Paid 9/2 last week will likely be higher this week. Bad eyed Bill missed last week. The week prior was 4 wide 1st turn to tuck 4 hole, but got a dream trip after that and could not get by Royal Regatta in a cheaper race. Still 4 wide into a fast opening ¼ is a very legit excuse. Definitely a contender here. Tuf copper was a live item on the board in last, was a hard 1st over in last and stuck around a fairly close 3rd.
Claimed by a higher percentage barn. Have to respect him, though 10 hole is tough. Going to consider the main contenders to be the 1-3-5-7-9-10 and do some price shopping. I suspect that my value play will be the 7 Procrastinator.

Race 6) Lucy Who, Angeliki and Cunning Connie are the obvious 3 horses in here and they are all out of the race I talked about in the “are there rules about this” thread. Cunning Connie after a pretty lackluster effort on November 13th, gets played to the clear 9/2 second choice and gets the all time dream trip (2 hole behind a longshot, pull pocket and draw clear while the other 2 are stuck behind a wall of horses in the back of the pack). Went on to win by 7.5 lengths. Now is in the 9 hole in the series final, which generally means drivers drive more aggressively and the 9 hole can prove very problematic. Not saying she can’t get there, as her race was visually very impressive, but from a gambling perspective I think she is a poor gamble. Angeliki, unlike Lucy Who had a chance to get out, but it was his first race in 3 weeks and obviously tonight she will be driven to win. Lucy who had a nightmare trip and was actually very impressive in the final yards getting up for 3rd. Now gets the monumental driver switch to Fillion, clearly will not be taken back in here and I suspect will show up in the winners circle after the race. An interesting longshot not so much to win the race but the pick up the 3rd or 4th spot in the tri or super is the 8 Its Sally Deal. Bet her last week (betting on Hudon is like throwing your money in a fire pit, but once in a while he gets there) and instead of aggressively sailing 1st over as he did the prior week, last week he gapped the gate and ended up last around the track. I am not crazy about the horse, because I think even with the trip she had she should have finished in the money. Picking the race 4-6-9-8.

Race 7) a lot of shippers in here. Shippers from the minor circuits are very hard to judge. Flying art is one and would have been a major contender in this spot when he was racing on this circuit a few months ago. So he must be respected. IF he is overlooked I will use him some, if he is a live item I will use him some, which basically means under 7/2=live over 10-1 =1 value in between I am not sure I need him. The horse who looks really good in here is the 3 Boardwalk Jack. Not sure we will see much of a price on him. I wouldn’t take the 26 second last ¼ at face value as it was likely wind aided, but that is still motoring home (Stake trotter Logan Park came home in .27). He did get a well covered up 3rd over trip behind very live cover, so that helped him a lot too. Today he gets the 3 post and a very suspect field to try to beat. I wouldn’t take too low a price on him just because he comes out of very cheap races prior to his last. For that reason I want at least 2-1 to bet him. Nobody else in here really interests me

Race 8) Nice step in the right direction for WalkontheMoon in last. Shuffled badly and responded nicely when clear, trotting really nicely late. This is actually a very weak field for this level (with the exception of the 7-I have no idea how good this horse is until this race is over so check the board). Roy should send and go wire to wire in here. Probably need about 8/5 to make a straight play on him. The 1-2-3 in no particular order are your logical trifecta fillers, check the board on the 7, I guess the 5 might have a look. Personally I am just singling the 8 in the multi legs and/or betting him straight at the right price.

Race 9) Tough race here. Skylar figures to leave, Military Secret figures to leave, the 8 and 9 are iffy in that dept (they can leave, or leave for a spot or even take back. The 4 Mr. Beast may also leave. Missed a week, adds lasix, but he was racing really well 5 or 6 mos ago., is in a high percentage barn and showed some improvement in last. Another step forward could land him in the trifecta. Not sure I even want to bet this race unless the board gives me a compelling reason to do so. Military Secret looks to be in pretty good form right now and I will give him the slight edge.

Pick the race 7-5-9-8-4

Race 10) Assuming the wind was the factor I think it was last week, that was a ridiculously good effort by both Donatover and Southwind Oncore, at the cheaper leve, dueling it out into the wind. I respect them both on the rise. Warawee Xalt, while sitting a nice 2 hole trip absolutely exploded when pulling pocket and raced the best I have ever seen him race. Locatelli had a nice trip and made the forward step. Definitely a solid performer at this level Did not like what I saw from Esplosione in last. Will toss him from the 8 hole. Even Rivers who may be a really big price raced solid in last. Not sure it is a great betting race (I will see where the tote board leads me), but will pick the race 1-2-7-5-6.

Race 11) Snap Test. Was betting this horse with both hands earlier this year and he never got a trip. Ships to a cheap circuit then comes back last week and 13-1 off some very suspect running lines and gets the dream trip and scores. Frustrating game. Switch to the Moreau barn and Jmac up certainly not going to hurt the cause. I liked a Boy Named Suuzz last week, turned out to be very live on the board went right to the lead and spit is up. Once again the wind might have been his enemy. Going to box the 2-3 and here as I really do not see much else in here that appeals to me..

Tis it, good luck tonight.
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