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Old 11-20-2023, 07:56 PM   #1
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Join Date: Mar 2007
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Mohawk Monday 11/20/23

By the way there are a number of races tonight I am just isolating who I like and playing them as potential value plays. This is not by design, it just so happens that is the way these races came up. If you see horses you like in these races, you might have an interesting exacta box partner.

Race 1) First off I am going to toss the 10 Warrawee Yes. Actually give him the best last race figure off of his last race, but off the 3 week layoff and drawn outside and surely to attract some money with Jmac up, to me the gamble is to try to beat him. The horse I like is the 3 Stone Bridge Bravo. Took way the worst of it trip wise when nipped by the 9 MajorDanceMoves (who was dq’d so maybe he was impeded too?). Also Bravo was off the sick list and and had a 2 week layoff and has better prior efforts to run back to. Devils Arch would be an interesting 2nd choice if I could toss his last race. I have made mention that the track played weird 2 and 3 weeks ago, so maybe I can. Will play the 3 straight and a small 3-5 box.

Race 2) I a race that is challenging to say the least I am going to take a stab with the #4 A BOY NAMED SUUZZ. Was claimed by Barrington who is pretty strong as a claiming trainer 3 back, he disappointed form the 8 hole 2 back (cannot like him off that effort). However in his last He left hard and got shuffled way back in a hot paced race. Basically lost all chance. Like I said this is a stab. This is a very weak looking field and he could leave sit a trip and pop at a fairly decent price.

Race 3) Mr Mayor Hanover after putting in 2 strong efforts rail riding, went back to the lead set some
swift fractions and spit it up pretty badly. 9 hole coupled with the fact that the 3-5 and maybe even the 8 may leave inside of him may make a similar trip likely today. Figure wise he is the horse to beat, but personally I am looking at #4 Bella Cavalla. I have no explanation for why she raced so poorly in her 11/6 race, but she bounced back with an improved effort in her last. If things get heated up front and there certainly is a reasonable explanation that may happen, she just might be the beneficiary. Just looking to play the 4 in here. By the way likely 2nd favorite Warrawee Xalt, broke after two disappointing efforts as favorite(earning lackluster figures). If it lines ups 9-5 and/or finishes 9-5 I hardly will be shocked. Also not buying that the 7 is this good especially from the 7 hole. Just looking at the 4 in here.

Race 4) this is a wide open race. 8-9-10 look like the top flight from the figure standpoint, but that is pretty typical in a claiming handicap. Of those 3 Procastinator seems most likely to be forwardly place without stinging himself too much. I am inclined to let the 9 and 10 beat me from those posts. Of the others I sort of like the 1 Little Manny. 5 wide much of the first turn and then eventually clearing getting to the half in 54.3, he remained prominent till midstretch before understably tiring. Overall gave him. That race I think singles this guy out as the horse to beat in here. He was claimed by a fairly high percentage trainer out of that race. Not thrilled with the rail, but if he can get a trip either he has a big chance in here. The race is wide open (I can make a case for half a dozen of these) so I am really just looking to play the 1 horse in here (2-3-8-9-10 in no particular order would be the most likely winners of the rest).

Race 5) Tough read in here. Figure wise I would call this race 2-8. Walk on the moon, imo was driven right in his last race(driven to win) but failed to get the job done. You can argue that the 55.4 middle half did him in, but I am not so sure. I am not really sold. He had not business holding one for 2nd in my book and honestly did not put in much of a fight. Gingondas, after a bunch of dreadful miles took a nice step in the right direction. Left in 28 flat rail rode angled out 2 paths and closed okay. Still my knock on this horse is that he doesn’t really deliver in the lane and that 30 second final ¼, doesn’t do a lot to alter that belief. So even though those horses make logical sense as the best two horses, I am going to try to beat them. The 7 Chamba took a lot of support in his last race, that was unimpressive in my book. So I don’t like him either. VilleFranche seems limited to leaving sitting a trip and maybe running 3rd at this point at his level. The 9 horse, I assume needs at least one more race. The 5 and 10 ran 1-2 vs weaker earning okay figures. Certainly wouldn’t say they can’t get there. The horse I am going to take a shot with is Donatover. Had a series of rough 1st over journeys. In his last race he left from the 9 hole, tucked, and while I would hardly argue that he looked loaded, he was blocked behind Walkonthemoon. Just looking to play the 3 Donatover at what hopefully is a pretty nice price.

Race 6) Lucy who just dominated this field (the only horse who wasn’t in the race was the 4). So obviously the 4 Lucy Who is the horse to beat at a short price. The 4 Angeliki earned a solid figure in his last start, but do not like the 3 week layoff. Barn is rock solid though. Of the horses that came out of the Lucy Who race the #2 Its Sally Deal is most interesting with her 56.3 middle half 1st over brush. If Hudon can figure out how to get her in the race without using her up she should be much closer this time around. Keying the 3 with the 2 in the exacta with the 2&4 in the trifecta and playing the 2 straight

Race 7) Sort of a tricky race here. I will just handicap out lout here. The 1) Midnight Miracle regained her confidence and looks to be back to pretty good form now. But this is still a steep class level for her, even at her best. I respect her but like others better. 2) Explosione-is in top form, a solid fit at this level and looks very tough in here. Have no idea how they pounded him down to .30 on the dollar (he looked best but not that much the best) but he delivered in a big way last week. Royalty Beer suffered a flat tire and was stuck inside and blocked in the lane-so disregard the race. Prior races do not fit with these horse imo. Locatelli, maybe the best horse in here at best. Off the 4 mos layoff ran even . Your guess is as good as mine-look at the tote board. Muscle Fashion missed last week 3 races back won well against cheaper. 2 back was a hard 1st over the night that Fleurie freaked and paid the price. Last race was shuffled really badly and came flying. I give him a big look in here. Fleurie-watch the tote board. On 10/30 was bet like a good think albeit most of the money came in after off, and he ran the best race I have seen her run. Then last week, was dead on the board and ran like you would expect Fleurie to run. She was okay but nothing special. There does not appear to be a ot of speed in here and I am sure Mcnair will leave in this spot. So have to her a look for that reason alone. Free Willy Hanover has evolved into a one run type that has his work cut out from the 7 post. I cant see River from the 8 hole off his last race. 9 Mischevious rose is solid enoutgh every week. 9 hole a problem. Mikey Mass has his work cut out from the 10 hole. Picking the race 2-5-6, keep an eye on the betting with the 4 Locatelli. Given the relative prices, the chances are I will be keying the 5 Muscle Fashion.

Going to leave it at that. No clue in the 8th, to many ? In the preferred, Not sure I see anyone I would even consider betting in the 10th and the 11th is just crazy, all of these horses that were in good form a few months ago cannot pace a step currently-sad to see.
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