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Old 11-13-2023, 07:59 PM   #1
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Mohawk Monday 11/13/23

For what it is worth. Something tells me that the track played a little strange the last
two Mondays (I havenít played any other days so I have no idea what transpired other than those two days but I though the races looked a bit odd). For one early speed did not play very well and it was not unusual for horse to close from far back. Just keep that in mind as you handicap. I am not really sure what I can do with that information, but just sharing it. I am capping today without watching many replays and because I am dealing with ridiculous dental issues I have to go back to the dentist instead of handicap on my off day.

Race 1) Tricky affair here. I imagine the 8 Midnight Miracle will receive a lot of attention at the windows. This horse was very good a couple months ago. Dropped way down in class 2 races ago was bet to 1/5 (I didnít trust him or even bet the race) but she won easiily earning a strong figure for this level. Bounced back with another 1/5 win at Flamboro so I assume he had plenty left in the tank. From the 8 hole as what I assume will be favorite, I have to assume he will leave. By the end of this race I will have a better feel for where she is. I respect her just donít really want to bet on her. Warawee Xalt I though raced poorly spitting it up 2 back against Storm Trotter. Storm Trotter came back to run huge but the horse this horse beat Bustin with Pride raced poorly. Last week this horse was favored went 1st over and got nailed by a very fast closing class jumper Stormont Divide who had never shown hints of being anywhere near as good as this horse. I assume Mcnair will leave probably retake if the 8 outleaves him and cut the mile. This horse is solid enough and a big contender in here. I think the hore most interesting to e is Itstimetogohome. 2 back was a comeback tightner. Last was a nice improve. This horse has been pretty good in the past. Going to hive him a look as a possible upsetter at probably around odds of 4-1 to 6-1. Donít know what to make of Bella Cavalla. Liked her 2 back and she was blocked. Last race the Caw had a crystal ball betting Pretty Special down to 1 to 5 and this horse was terrible. Canít use her in here. Overkill Hall steps up in class with a decent effort in last. Going to pick the race 2-4-8-6.

Race 2) Have to give top billing to Dahlquist Hanover. His races at Yonkers in September should make him better than these. Cam back 10/29 at Flamboro for the tightner and then last race at Flamboro, he earned a solid figure for this level. He was a close 4th to Dealin with Dewey (who obviously is not in peak form but is much better than these horses when good). Not really that interested in anybody else. Stormont Divide beat Warrawee Xalt who would me a huge contender in here but I assume he is closing from the 9 hole. Given that the track played unusually well for his style I think the proper approach is to try to beat him. But he is a 3 year old so maybe he is getting good. We will know more after this race. The 4 is off a layoff and I assume out for exercise. I think a logical horse to use with my top choice is the 6 Crystal Baller. Tactical speed, a good post, some ability and probably a fairly decent price. Going to pick the race 3-6 and leave it at that.

Race 3) WildRiverbumblebee was bet down to 4/5 11/4. He left into a fast 1st quarter, sat a 2 hole trip, pulled pocket early far turn and pressed hard getting the best of Grand Poobah, but paid the price as Might Mac rail rode, had clear sailing and blew by. WildRiver had the much more exerting trip and understandably paid the price late. I have to put him on top. Reactorn Now is a huge question mark and makes this race a bit unplayable. He come out of the best races in the US. But in the last 7 weeks he has race two times, once he broke the other time he sat last around the track. He is also off for 3 weeks since his last start. Obviously he can win but from the 7 hole I have seen better gambles. Grand Poobah is a little bit interesting to me in here. He has been in really bad form, but his last race was a huge improvement. Left in 26.1 and even though my top choice went by him this guy was fighting to the wire coming back on. He has spped to sit a good trip and certainly has a big look in the exacta and tri. Mighty Mac won but was a beneficiary of a sweet trip. He rail rode came out entering the lane and went by. I am going to pick the race 1-3-5-7.

Race 4) ran out of time. Picking the race 6-9 banking that the 10 isnít able to get into the race from the 10 hole.

Race 5) not a race I am crazy about. Think the 7 Lucy Who is best in a weak unexciting race.

Race 6) Just not liking this race. I am a rocket managed to hold on by a neck. Claimed by an 8% so perhaps vulnerable from the 10 post. Skylar who just missed to him is 3rd off the layoff so further improvement is certainly possible and he could sit a good trip again. Hershey Hanover would be interesting but scratched sick is not exactly my favorite situation. They do sometimes win off the sick list, but he has been off 3 weeks and is in the 8 hole. Have no idea what to do with Frownies Miracle that was mediocre, raced giant a couple of races off a claimed when bet like he could not lose, and then when sent up in class and wasnít bet he looks mediocre again. Go figure. Sir A is a one run type who likes to sit the rail and make a late run. Often a good trifecta filler at a big price but aside from that he doesnít offer much. Just an uninteresting race to me. If I could get 3-1 plus on Skylar I would take it.

Race 7) Going to put Esplosione on top here. This guy has been stuck way on the outside in his last 4 races. I believe he is a better horse on the front end anyhow. With the dorp in class I think he will be sent right to the lead and maybe Trevor will retake with WalkontheMoon, but I expect no worse than a 2 hole trip in here. I think with that kind of trip he should be the horse to beat. Walkonthemoon, was used early for position got shuffled some and just sort of raced evenly. Sort of a mediocre effort but earned a figure that would make him a strong threat in here. Once again class drop should be to his liking. Villefranch AS- has speed to secure maybe a 3 hole trip and has the ability to possibly stay 3rd. Going to pick the race 6-2-4. Keep an eye on the betting on the 1 horse off the layoff, but I am assuming he needs a race. If All wrapped up beats me from the 8 hole so be it. He doesnít really appeal to me form out there. Also assume Meadowbranch Noble needs a race.

Race 8) Sort of an open race here. Going to take a bit of a stab with Boardwalk Jack on top. Just really love the way he was pacing the last 1/8th in his last start. None of these horses are great and at what should be a pretty nice price (I think he should be at least 8 to 1if not much higher) I think he has about as good of shot as any in here. Hes in control is the obvious top choice and readed well in hais last, the top 2 finishers are just better horses than this class. Sports Fan takes a huge drop in class. Obviously his race 10/9 gives him a big look. Dr. Joe is certainly eligible to improve 2nd off the 5 week layoff. Sip of Bourbon was a little better in his last start than the previous start. Has speed to get position. Full Disclosure improved in last and could wake up and what should be a nice price. Toronto has had some rough trips but he is not nearly as good as he we a couple of months ago. Looking for an upset with the 5, picking the race 5-3-6-1-4-8-2-7 in an open affair..

Race 9) Fleurie ran out of his mind when bet like a good think 10/30. Obviously he had no chance from last in the preferred. I assume he will be takent to the lade again. The figure for the 10/30 race was strong and the effort was huge at this level. It was sort of out of the ordinary for this horse in my opinion, but it was so strong I have to place him 2nd in here. Still going to give the edgo to Truffles too that always races super at this level. He runs up the track in the ffa every week then when he is eligible they put him at this level and he wins usually easily. Mischevious Rose raced very nicely in last 1st over. Jwas not match for Storm Trotter who put in the effort of his life. I canít see Storm Trotter leaving in here. I also cannot see him winning at this level closing from 8th. But the effort was huge, so maybe I am wrong. Going to pick the race 6-7-1-8.

That will do it Wasnít able to get to races 10 and 11. The cheapy claimers are not my favorite anyhow.

Good luck.
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