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Old 12-11-2023, 11:05 AM   #76
Andy Asaro
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Racetracks can and do give rebates
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Old 12-11-2023, 11:29 AM   #77
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This might be off the wall...

But why don't we make a statement by having ALL members not bet one whole weekend?

(NOT Christmas weekend )
As in members of this website?

What is your proposed statement in reference to?

Is it CAW related? Is there a specific complaint and/or goal?
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Old 12-11-2023, 11:37 AM   #78
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No need to call me out, I'm not in this argument.

But since you're picking a fight, in this thread where people are saying "the racetracks should stop rebates" when they're not the ones GIVING the rebates (though I guess we've learned some of them have financial stakes in the places that do, which is what started this thread), I can't blame someone in the industry questioning the accuracy of the arguments.

As I say every time you post how takeout should be cut to 10%, yes in fantasy land that would be wonderful. And I am not defending the current system, only speaking of reality and not fantasy. But reality is that 95% of wagering comes from off track. When source fees are 6-10%, that takeout cut would immediately end most ADW wagering and drive the biggest bettors from the game. Handle would drop by half or more overnight, and many tracks are already barely scraping by. You're telling a business to have a sale where they sell their product at a loss---and the sale never ends. I personally can understand why they're choosing the slow bleeding over immediately cutting their own throats. If you love the game, it's hard to watch, but it doesn't make your arguments any more logical financially the 100th time you post them than the 1st.
Dude, I was not picking a fight with you. I was agreeing that I do post the same thing for years, so anyone can use the search function to understand my reasoning. I am just stating what needs to happen for this game to survive. For me to defend my point is a waste of time, when i have already done so many times and nothing changes other than the industry going all in on stupid and now is trying to emotionally prepare itís community for itís inevitable demise.

Regarding laws and contracts. How about they put their teams of lawyers to work. Somehow, despite your insistence otherwise, I think they can figure out a way to make it happen. They seem to have no problem securing charity despite the fact that they have a game that appeals to hardly anyone anymore.
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Old 12-11-2023, 02:02 PM   #79
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No need to call me out, I'm not in this argument.

But since you're picking a fight, in this thread where people are saying "the racetracks should stop rebates" when they're not the ones GIVING the rebates (though I guess we've learned some of them have financial stakes in the places that do, which is what started this thread), I can't blame someone in the industry questioning the accuracy of the arguments.
The whole point of this thread was that whether they are giving rebates out directly or they have an ownership stake in an entity that is, it smells to high heaven. It's also having the same hugely negative impact on semi serious players that are betting fewer races, less money, or dropping out altogether because the pools are so efficient.

Something has to give.

There has to be a better balance between what CAWs are getting and what semi serious players are getting.

I don't think the industry realizes how close it is to an epic debacle. We are one serious recession away from a hurricane level headwind to industry handle at a time it can't afford it.

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As I say every time you post how takeout should be cut to 10%, yes in fantasy land that would be wonderful. And I am not defending the current system, only speaking of reality and not fantasy. But reality is that 95% of wagering comes from off track. When source fees are 6-10%, that takeout cut would immediately end most ADW wagering and drive the biggest bettors from the game.
I'm not so sure that's such a terrible outcome other than it would cause one variation of the short term pain I keep describing as inevitable.

Non track ADWs are a problem.

IMO, major tracks should probably have their own online betting systems like NYRA does. Then you could say if I bet on NYRA races via NYRA Rewards, my take is lower by x%. That encourages more people to use the track wagering platform where they keep more instead of another ADW and puts the semi serious player back in the game. If they wager a lot, then you can still rebate a bit above that. I don't think that changes economics of cross state wagering. If I use my NYRA account to bet MTH, it would be exactly the same. If I use TVG to bet NYRA it would be the same (just foolish).
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Old 12-11-2023, 02:57 PM   #80
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Dude, I was not picking a fight with you. I was agreeing that I do post the same thing for years, so anyone can use the search function to understand my reasoning. I am just stating what needs to happen for this game to survive. For me to defend my point is a waste of time, when i have already done so many times and nothing changes other than the industry going all in on stupid and now is trying to emotionally prepare itís community for itís inevitable demise.

Regarding laws and contracts. How about they put their teams of lawyers to work. Somehow, despite your insistence otherwise, I think they can figure out a way to make it happen. They seem to have no problem securing charity despite the fact that they have a game that appeals to hardly anyone anymore.
You cant stop them from being good at this.Taking the rebate away may not cause them to leave..just be more selective and efficient, and probably see a lot of tracks close down.
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Old 12-11-2023, 03:08 PM   #81
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You cant stop them from being good at this.Taking the rebate away may not cause them to leave..just be more selective and efficient, and probably see a lot of tracks close down.
Racing is one of the few industries not part of a socialized economy that is trying so hard to avoid market forces it might destroy itself. Watching racing is a lot like watching the government, except without the printing press.
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Old 12-11-2023, 03:34 PM   #82
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You cant stop them from being good at this.Taking the rebate away may not cause them to leave..just be more selective and efficient, and probably see a lot of tracks close down.

I have never ever made a post suggesting I wanted to Caw to leave the game. That is others, not me. I have said if they chose to leave the game it would be better off (but that is because many seem to think they will exit the building if my suggestion of no rebates and a 8 % wps take, a 10% exacta/double take and 12% all other exotic take was put into effect) but no advantage gambling game should ever be predicated on eliminating winners.

Let's just use the exacta and double pools for an example. Lets say they currently make up 35% of these at NYRA. Nyra currently has a 18.5% take on these pools. So $100,000 35 k is being bet by caw at probably about -5%. 65 K is bet by public. $18,500 takeout. Caw loses $1750. Public (non caw for the sake of this post) loses 16,750. That is means that public loses 25.8 % (16,750/65,000). It is close enough to reality (I think Crunks numbers may have public doing slightly worse). Tomorrow, racing waves it's magic wand. No rebates. Public bets the same $65,000. Now caw has to make money. They suddenly are maybe $15 k at +5 %. So yes day pool drops drops 20% Now the 80 K pool has a takeout of $8000 (new 10% takeout). Caw wins $750 with their 15 k bet. Public now loses $8750 (8000 takeout plus the $750 caw wins) on their $65,000 bet, New takeout on non caw bets 13.46%. Now obviously if non caw bets go from losing 25.8% to 13.46% on exacta/doubles, the public will bet more. There will be more winners (climbing a 13.46% mountain is far easier than climbing a 25.8% mountain) and everyone will be losing money a lot more consistent with other forms of gambling. Over time the public will bet more. More people will enter the game. More people will stay in the game. The caw is not going anywhere. They will adapt to whatever the game gives them. As the public bets more, the caw is able to bet more (in other words if the caw can bet 15% of the pool at +5 % then then if the public doubles it's betting over a certain period of time, the caw will double the amount they bet over the same period of time. So the game grows over time instead of declining over time (imagine that). If you can properly market the sport on top of this and introduce it to a huge market of advantage gamblers the growth potential is pretty enormous. Or we can stick with the status quo. What says you?
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Old 12-11-2023, 03:58 PM   #83
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1. If you can tell CAWs they can't bet into WPS pools with less than 2 minutes left, you can probably dictate other terms that benefit the rest of the players if you want to because you have no conflict of interest.

2. If you own a piece of the rebate shop you can at a minimum have some influence over the size of the rebates given to CAWs and at a maximum have control over their size if you want to because you have no conflict of interest.

If you exercised your power using #1 and #2, that would give you the flexibility to at least theoretically adjust the take for everyone else. After that it's politics.

(Just my personal unpopular opinion on this, I don't think NYRA should have stopped late betting into the WPS pools for CAWs. I know it was about as well intentioned a change as you can imagine. I know it benefits the rest of us. I applaud the goodwill. IMO it's just not right. If you develop a software that gives you the ability to calculate values and bet in batch at the last possible second, imo you should be allowed to use it. I'm way more interested in what can be done with the take or rebate differential.)
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Old 12-11-2023, 04:08 PM   #84
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I have never ever made a post suggesting I wanted to Caw to leave the game. That is others, not me. I have said if they chose to leave the game it would be better off (but that is because many seem to think they will exit the building if my suggestion of no rebates and a 8 % wps take, a 10% exacta/double take and 12% all other exotic take was put into effect) but no advantage gambling game should ever be predicated on eliminating winners.

Let's just use the exacta and double pools for an example. Lets say they currently make up 35% of these at NYRA. Nyra currently has a 18.5% take on these pools. So $100,000 35 k is being bet by caw at probably about -5%. 65 K is bet by public. $18,500 takeout. Caw loses $1750. Public (non caw for the sake of this post) loses 16,750. That is means that public loses 25.8 % (16,750/65,000). It is close enough to reality (I think Crunks numbers may have public doing slightly worse). Tomorrow, racing waves it's magic wand. No rebates. Public bets the same $65,000. Now caw has to make money. They suddenly are maybe $15 k at +5 %. So yes day pool drops drops 20% Now the 80 K pool has a takeout of $8000 (new 10% takeout). Caw wins $750 with their 15 k bet. Public now loses $8750 (8000 takeout plus the $750 caw wins) on their $65,000 bet, New takeout on non caw bets 13.46%. Now obviously if non caw bets go from losing 25.8% to 13.46% on exacta/doubles, the public will bet more. There will be more winners (climbing a 13.46% mountain is far easier than climbing a 25.8% mountain) and everyone will be losing money a lot more consistent with other forms of gambling. Over time the public will bet more. More people will enter the game. More people will stay in the game. The caw is not going anywhere. They will adapt to whatever the game gives them. As the public bets more, the caw is able to bet more (in other words if the caw can bet 15% of the pool at +5 % then then if the public doubles it's betting over a certain period of time, the caw will double the amount they bet over the same period of time. So the game grows over time instead of declining over time (imagine that). If you can properly market the sport on top of this and introduce it to a huge market of advantage gamblers the growth potential is pretty enormous. Or we can stick with the status quo. What says you?
That would be an ideal scenario,If just one track did try that across the board for a substantial period of time it would be interesting to see the result,That would be the real bold move...but probably never happens.
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Old 12-11-2023, 04:17 PM   #85
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I have never ever made a post suggesting I wanted to Caw to leave the game. That is others, not me. I have said if they chose to leave the game it would be better off (but that is because many seem to think they will exit the building if my suggestion of no rebates and a 8 % wps take, a 10% exacta/double take and 12% all other exotic take was put into effect) but no advantage gambling game should ever be predicated on eliminating winners.

Let's just use the exacta and double pools for an example. Lets say they currently make up 35% of these at NYRA. Nyra currently has a 18.5% take on these pools. So $100,000 35 k is being bet by caw at probably about -5%. 65 K is bet by public. $18,500 takeout. Caw loses $1750. Public (non caw for the sake of this post) loses 16,750. That is means that public loses 25.8 % (16,750/65,000). It is close enough to reality (I think Crunks numbers may have public doing slightly worse). Tomorrow, racing waves it's magic wand. No rebates. Public bets the same $65,000. Now caw has to make money. They suddenly are maybe $15 k at +5 %. So yes day pool drops drops 20% Now the 80 K pool has a takeout of $8000 (new 10% takeout). Caw wins $750 with their 15 k bet. Public now loses $8750 (8000 takeout plus the $750 caw wins) on their $65,000 bet, New takeout on non caw bets 13.46%. Now obviously if non caw bets go from losing 25.8% to 13.46% on exacta/doubles, the public will bet more. There will be more winners (climbing a 13.46% mountain is far easier than climbing a 25.8% mountain) and everyone will be losing money a lot more consistent with other forms of gambling. Over time the public will bet more. More people will enter the game. More people will stay in the game. The caw is not going anywhere. They will adapt to whatever the game gives them. As the public bets more, the caw is able to bet more (in other words if the caw can bet 15% of the pool at +5 % then then if the public doubles it's betting over a certain period of time, the caw will double the amount they bet over the same period of time. So the game grows over time instead of declining over time (imagine that). If you can properly market the sport on top of this and introduce it to a huge market of advantage gamblers the growth potential is pretty enormous. Or we can stick with the status quo. What says you?
There are so many things that contradict logic and reality here, but I've already explained that so many times that there's no point in breaking them down. You'll just post the same fantasy land garbage another 100 times. If that is all you have going on, then it must be a nice life. Take care.
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Old 12-11-2023, 04:55 PM   #86
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There are so many things that contradict logic and reality here, but I've already explained that so many times that there's no point in breaking them down. You'll just post the same fantasy land garbage another 100 times. If that is all you have going on, then it must be a nice life. Take care.
Fantasy land garbage? Just let the industry die instead of figuring out how to make the industry work. Good plan. Your a genius. They should have had you speaking at the Symposium. You would have fit right in. Maybe you can host the next one and you can all have a group cry about closing down another bunch of race tracks.
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Old 12-11-2023, 07:54 PM   #87
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Fantasy land garbage? Just let the industry die instead of figuring out how to make the industry work. Good plan. Your a genius. They should have had you speaking at the Symposium. You would have fit right in. Maybe you can host the next one and you can all have a group cry about closing down another bunch of race tracks.
IMO the industry certainly blew a golden opportunity for crossover play when sports betting became legal. They were very ill prepared for it with virtually nothing to offer up as comparable wager types. Instead since sports betting became legal they've more or less been relegated to fending off negative press from breakdowns and drug issues, which I mean that's just more of the same for decades now. The sport also suffered a huge die off with the greatest generation passing. HISA is a step in the right direction, but there are actual problems with the gameplay, it's an eight course sit down meal every day in an age when most people only have time for fast food. I sense no momentum with gen-x, y or z. I went Christmas shopping over the weekend and was in Barnes and Noble for a bit, I said to myself just for the hell of it, for old times sake what's the Horse Racing book selection look like in this store. Took a while to find but buried amongst a myriad of crossword puzzle books I found a lonely copy of Eng's Dummies book and not a single other title. No Mike Maloney no Andy Beyer, no Steven Davidowitz, not even that Quinn guy. FWIW Target had Draft Kings gift cards. That's where we are folks. Maybe the Louisville Target has Twinspires gift cards. There are a lot of wonderful people who work in the industry and it's a great game with great potential. I really hope it gets straightened around before I kick the bucket.
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Old 12-11-2023, 10:16 PM   #88
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Racetracks can and do give rebates
I never have gotten one and I sent in 6 figures for many years in bets. I have no clue how much you have to bet to get the track to give you a rebate but I must have never been close.

I did get a couple free forms here and there, so I had that going for me.

I bet 1/10th on sports betting and get perks all the time.
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Old 12-12-2023, 06:03 AM   #89
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I never have gotten one and I sent in 6 figures for many years in bets. I have no clue how much you have to bet to get the track to give you a rebate but I must have never been close.

I did get a couple free forms here and there, so I had that going for me.

I bet 1/10th on sports betting and get perks all the time.
High volume players get on track rebates. If you're betting 100K or more a day some tracks will rebate you. Some tracks probably less
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Old 12-12-2023, 06:15 AM   #90
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Bottom line is ....Does it grow the game/sport or not? Easy answer is that it does not. And I'm not talking about the technology they use to bet. I'm talking about the absurd rebates they get which I argue are at the expense of the average player, core player, and the newbie who has no idea what takeout is. And I don't give two sh*ts if it puts certain businesses out of business even though I know and like some of the people involved with those businesses.

Begin by lowering takeout for everyone on WPS and Exactas. To get it low for EVERYONE eliminate all rebates on those wagers. Major Tracks should be able to get WPS down to 12% and Exactas about the same. Pay to the penny on breakage. If this were done would the game grow or shrink long term? Easy answer is of course it would grow. Would the big teams walk away? If they can't compete on a level playing field they should walk away.

So, Mr. Commissioner @RepoleStable @PatCummingsNTA start right there. Lower WPS and Exacta takeout for everyone and see what happens. They're not gonna do it cuz it makes long term business sense so you have to force them to do it by any means necessary.

Horse Racing shouldn't be in business if they can't run a fair game/contest.


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