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Old 12-05-2023, 09:58 PM   #16
MJC922
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Originally Posted by burnsy View Post
Yeah , but my question is . What happens without the “incentive “ . How bad does it get ? If big bettors walk . How much more does handle decrease ? The fact is I believe the incentive is them dealing with a rock and hard spot .

Furthermore, legal sports betting . I bet football . I’m not a huge bettor but I bet . Draftkings gives me bonuses and a cash out price early if my bet is winning and I don’t want to risk waiting for the end result . I’m not some Whale , but it’s way easier for me to make money doing this over horse racing . And I get the incentives to boot .

If anyone is thinking they can level the playing field in horse racing. My belief is , it’s too late and the competition is just going to eat their lunch in the long run. How do you beat , the takeout , the short fields and the diluted odds going against the big money . Pari Mutuel my ass !
That's why US racing really should explore adding new types of bets. As you said it's easier to make money with these other bets, if nothing else it SEEMS easier. That's very very important to this discussion is that it seems easier. It's in fact nothing like spending hours handicapping a pick six to get maybe a 10% chance to cash out. It's completely the opposite, and yet big names are playing their pick six, they don't want to grind anything, it's all about six figure king of the world scores. I have to share some news, that's all well and good for them, I'm actually happy they have what they really want, but not everyone wants to bet a little to win a lot, in fact I suspect that most gamblers want to absolutely crush something at fixed odds which they believe to be a near certainty to cash. US racing offers very little of the sort. Place and show bets have the strike rates but are a terrible option. We need some horse against horse match-up bets in order to get anything close to the sense of easy winning that you describe above with draftkings. Racing has the events on offer every day, they just need a way to tap into this. If they don't figure this out it goes nowhere really, it'll just be a gradual decline, won't matter about breakdowns or bad press, wave a magic wand and take that away, the critical problem is still relative to sports betting by and large nobody wins often enough here to even fool themselves for very long.
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Old 12-08-2023, 08:01 PM   #17
Gorrex
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If you really are making money on a fixed odds product.. you won't be for too long unless you figure out ways to dodge their ban hammer.

Winners are not welcome on those sites.
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Old 12-08-2023, 11:46 PM   #18
MJC922
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If you really are making money on a fixed odds product.. you won't be for too long unless you figure out ways to dodge their ban hammer.

Winners are not welcome on those sites.
If I'm making money on a match up bet I'm winning the money from the person betting on the other horse. If action is balanced then I'm not understanding why anyone booking the bet would care how good I am. Find two evenly matched horses and offer them at -115, if the action is balanced it's free money for the track. They leave money on the table every day by not offering something like this. We need far more of this type of wager IMO. It could start as two horses with the same morning line odds or at least close, then use the DD probables matrix to see if that too is very close, if it is then offer it up on the fly at -115 both horses. I'd be all over that on a daily basis, now I'm all over nothing unless it's a weekend and I'm not busy. You'd actually have some action during the week because I'd have time to thoroughly handicap two horses even working my day job and you'd also have much larger wager sizes coming in because of far less risk involved from a kelly bet perspective. Lots of new churn here... this should not be looked at as just shuffling money out of pools and into this type of bet, there would be some of that, some cannibalization involved, but you'd also be getting a hell of a lot of brand new money in play that I suspect wouldn't even see the pools otherwise. Sports bettors may get interested in this type of betting option. That's why I'm saying money is definitely being left on the table. The full amount of potential handle is not being generated at the moment. I'm extremely confident in making that statement.
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