Saratoga 2016 - one play a day - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

PhantomOnTour · 07-21-2016, 11:47 PM

That's the goal, at least.
With a six day a week schedule I may miss a few days but I will make up those plays so the average is one play per day for the meet.

FRIDAY JULY 22 - DAY 1
Race 7 - #2 Takrees
Needs to prove she's not an Aqu inner lover, but will get a nice trip behind suspect speed. Good late runner can nail them. Top two choices (#5 and #6) are both E types with major question marks. The former has only 3 starts as a 5yr old, she's one dimensional so far and isn't fast enough to get the lead. The latter is a NY bred unproven at this level. She is a 10 time winner in a field of all 1 time winners, she's the speed of the speed, but I think someone hooks her at some point and she doesn't last.
The way I see it, my only true worry is the #1 at a nice 6-1 ML. Broke her Mdn for a tag, but it was over this track, been competitive lately in similar company. Gotta use her

$2 ex: 1-2
$2 ex: 2 w 1-6
$2 win: 2
Total Wager: $8.00 (all bets will be in $2 denominations)

Actor · 07-22-2016, 04:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

$2 ex: 1-2

I take it that's a $1 box?

PhantomOnTour · 07-22-2016, 08:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Actor

I take it that's a $1 box?

No, that's a straight $2 ex 1-2

VigorsTheGrey · 07-22-2016, 04:29 PM

Nice pick!

PhantomOnTour · 07-22-2016, 04:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

That's the goal, at least.
With a six day a week schedule I may miss a few days but I will make up those plays so the average is one play per day for the meet.

FRIDAY JULY 22 - DAY 1
Race 7 - #2 Takrees
Needs to prove she's not an Aqu inner lover, but will get a nice trip behind suspect speed. Good late runner can nail them. Top two choices (#5 and #6) are both E types with major question marks. The former has only 3 starts as a 5yr old, she's one dimensional so far and isn't fast enough to get the lead. The latter is a NY bred unproven at this level. She is a 10 time winner in a field of all 1 time winners, she's the speed of the speed, but I think someone hooks her at some point and she doesn't last.
The way I see it, my only true worry is the #1 at a nice 6-1 ML. Broke her Mdn for a tag, but it was over this track, been competitive lately in similar company. Gotta use her

$2 ex: 1-2
$2 ex: 2 w 1-6
$2 win: 2
Total Wager: $8.00 (all bets will be in $2 denominations)

That's way too much drama to show a profit of only $2.80.
Question now is, can I survive the meet with action like this

Total Bet: $8.00
Total Returned: $10.80

PhantomOnTour · 07-23-2016, 09:33 AM

SATURDAY, JULY 23 - Day 2

didn't find much to my liking today...considered the Dogwood runner in R1 and Dacita in the Diana, but have settled on this as my one play of the day.

Race 2 - #6 One Of A Kind 8-1 ML
I love even running sprinters stretching out. This 2yr old also split horses in his debut (a quality I like a lot in babies). Should race in the front half of this group, close to the pace which will likely be set by #1...hopefully Javier can gun them down.

I said in my first post that all bets would be in $2 denominations, but I've got to amend that. I will post in small increments in all exactas and go a litter bigger on win bets.

$2 ex: 1-2 w 6
$1 ex: 6 w 1-2-7-8
$4 Win: 6
($12 bet)

PhantomOnTour · 07-23-2016, 02:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

SATURDAY, JULY 23 - Day 2

didn't find much to my liking today...considered the Dogwood runner in R1 and Dacita in the Diana, but have settled on this as my one play of the day.

Race 2 - #6 One Of A Kind 8-1 ML
I love even running sprinters stretching out. This 2yr old also split horses in his debut (a quality I like a lot in babies). Should race in the front half of this group, close to the pace which will likely be set by #1...hopefully Javier can gun them down.

I said in my first post that all bets would be in $2 denominations, but I've got to amend that. I will post in small increments in all exactas and go a litter bigger on win bets.

$2 ex: 1-2 w 6
$1 ex: 6 w 1-2-7-8
$4 Win: 6
($12 bet)

At work all day, just checked the results...nothin doin.
Appears to have fallen quite a ways back of a slow pace.
On to tomorrow...guess i shoulda used that Dogwood runner in R1

Total bet: $20.00
Total Returned: $10.80

BELMONT 6-6-09 · 07-23-2016, 11:42 PM

I like your concept of selecting one play of the day. For me there would be days when I could not separate two contenders and would have to go for the additional wager!! tough game all around. Best of luck!

judd · 07-24-2016, 07:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BELMONT 6-6-09

I like your concept of selecting one play of the day. For me there would be days when I could not separate two contenders and would have to go for the additional wager!! tough game all around. Best of luck!

I usually only play one race and run

PhantomOnTour · 07-24-2016, 11:44 AM

I considered posting a selection for one of three runners yesterday - the two that I passed over wound up winning (Money Changer in R1 and Dacita in the Diana) and the one I posted ran up the track.
Trying to shake that big time today with one of my favorite Sar angles of them all...

SUNDAY, JULY 24 - DAY 3
Race 5 - #3 Angie's Prim Lady...this is the first starter of the meet for Al Stall. Since 2008 this is how he's done with these runners:
1st-1st-1st-3rd-1st-1st-midpack-2nd
The midpack runner was a FTS who got out of the gate badly, then Stall promptly won with his next starter of the meet a few days later.

She doesn't exactly measure up to some of these on paper and her ML is 10-1. Gonna be a bit of a leap of faith but I fully trust Stall to have her ready off that nice local work.

$2 ex: 2-7 w 3
$1 ex: 3 w 2-4-7-8
$4 win: 3
($12 bet)

PhantomOnTour · 07-25-2016, 09:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

I considered posting a selection for one of three runners yesterday - the two that I passed over wound up winning (Money Changer in R1 and Dacita in the Diana) and the one I posted ran up the track.
Trying to shake that big time today with one of my favorite Sar angles of them all...

SUNDAY, JULY 24 - DAY 3
Race 5 - #3 Angie's Prim Lady...this is the first starter of the meet for Al Stall. Since 2008 this is how he's done with these runners:
1st-1st-1st-3rd-1st-1st-midpack-2nd
The midpack runner was a FTS who got out of the gate badly, then Stall promptly won with his next starter of the meet a few days later.

She doesn't exactly measure up to some of these on paper and her ML is 10-1. Gonna be a bit of a leap of faith but I fully trust Stall to have her ready off that nice local work.

$2 ex: 2-7 w 3
$1 ex: 3 w 2-4-7-8
$4 win: 3
($12 bet)

Looks like she finished absolutely last

According to the chart she had a very rough start, oh well
Total Bet: $32.00
Total Return: $10.80
...back with today's selection after I drink this coffee.

PhantomOnTour · 07-25-2016, 10:04 AM

MONDAY, JULY 25 - DAY 4

Race 2 - #4 Howie's Tiz 10-1 ML
A good amount of speed up front should aide this cutbacker's late kick. He's gonna have to hurry to get there at only 6f - wish we were going more like 6.5f or 7f.
Jacobson rail runner has been off over 2yrs, let's hope he needs one. These type of runners usually make me pass the race altogether.
I think the speed gets run over today, going against all E types. The 2-6 may go at it pretty heavily up front.

$2 ex: 5-8 w 4
$5 win: 4
($9 bet)

PhantomOnTour · 07-25-2016, 12:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

MONDAY, JULY 25 - DAY 4

Race 2 - #4 Howie's Tiz 10-1 ML
A good amount of speed up front should aide this cutbacker's late kick. He's gonna have to hurry to get there at only 6f - wish we were going more like 6.5f or 7f.
Jacobson rail runner has been off over 2yrs, let's hope he needs one. These type of runners usually make me pass the race altogether.
I think the speed gets run over today, going against all E types. The 2-6 may go at it pretty heavily up front.

$2 ex: 5-8 w 4
$5 win: 4
($9 bet)

He's been scratched so scrap this play.

Going to change my play to Race 6 - #2 Bella Kateri 8-1 ML
Long layoff for obscure trainer, but she's run well off the shelf before. Heck, she runs well every time. Gets a good pace to chase, should be there in the late going.

$2 ex: 4-5 w 2
$5 win: 2
($9.00 bet)

PhantomOnTour · 07-27-2016, 01:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

He's been scratched so scrap this play.

Going to change my play to Race 6 - #2 Bella Kateri 8-1 ML
Long layoff for obscure trainer, but she's run well off the shelf before. Heck, she runs well every time. Gets a good pace to chase, should be there in the late going.

$2 ex: 4-5 w 2
$5 win: 2
($9.00 bet)

Loser..

Total Bet: $42.00
Total Returned: $10.80

PhantomOnTour · 07-27-2016, 01:19 PM

WEDNESDAY, JULY 27 - DAY 5

Race 9 - #4 Justa Lady - primary speed in this turf sprint will try to take 'em all the way. Beaten by a good one in her last, and she needs to be game as all hell to hold on today.
Some strong late runners will be firing at her in the last furlong. Will try to beat the Pletcher cutbacker breaking from the rail, where traffic could be a problem.
Hoping she can clear the #9 and catch a breather at some point.
ML odds of 8-1 seem more than fair, although I expect it come down some by post time.

$2 ex: 3-11 w 4
$6 win: 4
($10 bet)