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05-14-2023, 11:57 AM
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#31
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Knoxville
Posts: 204
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If I have one watch I know what time it is. If I have two then I'm not sure
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05-14-2023, 01:25 PM
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#32
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Long Island, NY
Posts: 753
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If you need 2 methods.... I'm going to make the argument that your first method just doesn't work.
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05-14-2023, 01:44 PM
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#33
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: near Lone Star Park
Posts: 5,153
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fred
If I have one watch I know what time it is. If I have two then I'm not sure
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If I have one or two watches, they could be wrong. If I have six watches, I can focus in on the ones I trust through comparison. I look at multiple values for pace, form, class and speed to drill into the reliable picture.
__________________
Ranch West
Equine Performance Analyst, Quick Grid Software
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05-14-2023, 01:55 PM
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#34
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,570
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If I have six watches I am still uncertain about the "right time", because the "sample size" might be inadequate. I would feel more comfortable if I had twelve watches...
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
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05-14-2023, 02:09 PM
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#35
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: near Lone Star Park
Posts: 5,153
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
If I have six watches I am still uncertain about the "right time", because the "sample size" might be inadequate. I would feel more comfortable if I had twelve watches...
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Each of us has a level at which we reach a comfort zone. And also a point at which it is too much to process.
__________________
Ranch West
Equine Performance Analyst, Quick Grid Software
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05-14-2023, 02:25 PM
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#36
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 58
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Even a broken watch is right twice a day.
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05-14-2023, 03:47 PM
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#37
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ranchwest
Each of us has a level at which we reach a comfort zone. And also a point at which it is too much to process.
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I'm pretty sure I'm way beyond the point of trying to process too much information.
Forget about watches, I'm still researching the class factor trying to build a better sundial.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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05-14-2023, 04:32 PM
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#38
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,570
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I read a book by Peter Lynch many years ago (Google him if you don't know who he is). This is what Lynch wrote (I am paraphrasing):
"In school we get a lot of B's and C's, and if we are smart enough maybe we also get some A's. But most of us never get any F's. Well...in the money games that we often get involved in during our lives, we all get a lot of F's, and it's a shock to our system because we are not used to such blunt signs of 'failure'. But make no mistake...whether we survive or not in the investment world will depend on how well we handle these 'failures' that we all have to deal with when we are trying to grow our money".
Peter Lynch was talking mainly about the stock market, of course...but he was also a poker and a bridge player. And his above statement applies to the horses as well. We all have to learn to properly deal with "failure", otherwise the gambling arena will eat us up alive. And when we insist on using multiple conflicting handicapping methods...it seems to me that this indicates an inability to deal with the inherent "failure" that we all must endure in this game. And I am against the use of such a cowardly compromise.
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
Last edited by thaskalos; 05-14-2023 at 04:35 PM.
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05-14-2023, 05:19 PM
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#39
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,544
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Sometimes a speed figure is wrong but sometimes the figure is perfectly fine it's just that what it measured was not so indicative of what we'd hoped it would measure. Hence breakout numbers for CYA purposes etc. The better final time figure makers often give you nothing of the sort and if that upsets end-users it shouldn't tbh. It's good to not have deal with unreliability. You need to be able to trust what you're using as inputs. There is only demand to look at the same something eight different ways when all eight have limited accuracy. I think what Dave was getting at was not looking at the same thing different ways but looking at say rankings from very different things, e.g. like when connections align with speed figures and a pace/post advantage you're more likely to be looking at an overbet horse. That makes perfect sense. I kind of think for me just going by the odds is the better way to spot overbet horses. Starting with the favorite is IMO the best shortcut to the process followed by co-favorite etc.
Last edited by MJC922; 05-14-2023 at 05:32 PM.
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05-14-2023, 05:52 PM
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#40
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,570
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Whether we consult speed figures, pace figures, class ratings, or psychics...we are guaranteed to lose at least 70% of our bets when we are betting on a single horse to win. At this rate, we better get comfortable with "losing", because that's what we will be doing the great majority of the time. And losing at this rate will also result in long losing streaks...and we will have to get comfortable with that too.
I remember a member here who no longer posts. I think his name was Traynor. Smart guy, and obviously highly educated..but he used to say something that I could never understand. "I really, really, really hate to lose"...he used to repeatedly say. And I always said to myself...how can he "really, really, really hate to lose"...when losing is what he is guaranteed to do the vast majority of the time in this game?
Another member here who has since passed away was Raybo...who used to say that he stopped betting when he lost 3 or 4 bets in a row, and didn't resume betting until he figured out what had "gone wrong". NOTHING had "gone wrong". When our winning percentage as bettors is 25-30%, we stand to lose 70-75% of the bets that we make...and this high a loss rate will inevitably result in long losing streaks.
There is a new book out by a great stock trader...and I recommend it to all you guys because the book's message has universal appeal when it comes to the world of monetary risk. Here is the book...and I think it will benefit all the horseplayers who bother to read it.
https://www.amazon.com/Best-Loser-Wi...ks%2C89&sr=1-1
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
Last edited by thaskalos; 05-14-2023 at 05:53 PM.
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05-14-2023, 06:25 PM
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#41
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,544
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
Whether we consult speed figures, pace figures, class ratings, or psychics...we are guaranteed to lose at least 70% of our bets when we are betting on a single horse to win. At this rate, we better get comfortable with "losing", because that's what we will be doing the great majority of the time. And losing at this rate will also result in long losing streaks...and we will have to get comfortable with that too.
I remember a member here who no longer posts. I think his name was Traynor. Smart guy, and obviously highly educated..but he used to say something that I could never understand. "I really, really, really hate to lose"...he used to repeatedly say. And I always said to myself...how can he "really, really, really hate to lose"...when losing is what he is guaranteed to do the vast majority of the time in this game?
Another member here who has since passed away was Raybo...who used to say that he stopped betting when he lost 3 or 4 bets in a row, and didn't resume betting until he figured out what had "gone wrong". NOTHING had "gone wrong". When our winning percentage as bettors is 25-30%, we stand to lose 70-75% of the bets that we make...and this high a loss rate will inevitably result in long losing streaks.
There is a new book out by a great stock trader...and I recommend it to all you guys because the book's message has universal appeal when it comes to the world of monetary risk. Here is the book...and I think it will benefit all the horseplayers who bother to read it.
https://www.amazon.com/Best-Loser-Wi...ks%2C89&sr=1-1
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Looks like a good read. I think at the end of the day really it boils down to overbetting your edge leads to ruin. The mind game does play into the overbetting piece heavily. Remember Quirin when he ran tests on Kelly? Even though what was being tested was hardcoded profitable any bet size over 2% or was it 3% of bankroll resulted in ruin anyway. That's telling. Yet it's probably fairly common that the avg joe will bet say a $300 or $400 into pick 5. Which is not a 50/50 prime bet to win or even let's say a 30% win bet where you might figure fractional Kelly is like 1% of bankroll, they literally put $300, 400, 500 or more into something with like a 2% chance of actually winning and so if we project out how large the bankroll should be for $300 wager at a 2% strike rate the bankroll should be what? 50k? - 100k? lol, yea I'm sure plenty of these folks have a 50k bankroll set aside to bet on horses. If they do great but I just think so much of the impossibility of it all is simply people betting way too heavily for their edge, IF they have an edge.
Last edited by MJC922; 05-14-2023 at 06:26 PM.
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05-14-2023, 07:04 PM
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#42
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,921
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Quote:
I remember a member here who no longer posts. I think his name was Traynor. Smart guy, and obviously highly educated..but he used to say something that I could never understand. "I really, really, really hate to lose"...he used to repeatedly say. And I always said to myself...how can he "really, really, really hate to lose"...when losing is what he is guaranteed to do the vast majority of the time in this game?
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Because he was a long-term winner.
Because he worked hard at it.
People at his level just cannot stand to lose, so they make sure they don't.
Actually, quite a fine man.
Also Traynor is a long-time HSH guy.
He has a lot of custom programming in HSH -stuff that he and I designed for his way of doing things. (Only his installation has it.)
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05-14-2023, 07:08 PM
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#43
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,921
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
If I have six watches I am still uncertain about the "right time", because the "sample size" might be inadequate. I would feel more comfortable if I had twelve watches...
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One of my favorite quotes is, "A man with a watch always knows what time it is, while a man with two watches is never sure."
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05-14-2023, 07:34 PM
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#44
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,570
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
Because he was a long-term winner.
Because he worked hard at it.
People at his level just cannot stand to lose, so they make sure they don't.
Actually, quite a fine man.
Also Traynor is a long-time HSH guy.
He has a lot of custom programming in HSH -stuff that he and I designed for his way of doing things. (Only his installation has it.)
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I am a long-term winner too...but my philosophy differs from his. I may "lose"...but that doesn't make me feel like a "loser". Nor would I ever tell another person that "I really, really, really hate to lose". When I "lose", I tell myself that coping with losing is the price that I have to pay in order to succeed in this game. Losing doesn't mean "failing"...unless we make it feel that way.
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
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05-14-2023, 07:39 PM
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#45
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,657
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
Whether we consult speed figures, pace figures, class ratings, or psychics...we are guaranteed to lose at least 70% of our bets when we are betting on a single horse to win. At this rate, we better get comfortable with "losing", because that's what we will be doing the great majority of the time. And losing at this rate will also result in long losing streaks...and we will have to get comfortable with that too.
I remember a member here who no longer posts. I think his name was Traynor. Smart guy, and obviously highly educated..but he used to say something that I could never understand. "I really, really, really hate to lose"...he used to repeatedly say. And I always said to myself...how can he "really, really, really hate to lose"...when losing is what he is guaranteed to do the vast majority of the time in this game?
Another member here who has since passed away was Raybo...who used to say that he stopped betting when he lost 3 or 4 bets in a row, and didn't resume betting until he figured out what had "gone wrong". NOTHING had "gone wrong". When our winning percentage as bettors is 25-30%, we stand to lose 70-75% of the bets that we make...and this high a loss rate will inevitably result in long losing streaks.
There is a new book out by a great stock trader...and I recommend it to all you guys because the book's message has universal appeal when it comes to the world of monetary risk. Here is the book...and I think it will benefit all the horseplayers who bother to read it.
https://www.amazon.com/Best-Loser-Wi...ks%2C89&sr=1-1
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Thanks for this...sounds like my kind of book.
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