Betting To Win- Impossible Mathematically To Profit Long Term ? - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

jamey1977 · 11-09-2010, 12:52 PM

That's what a good friend told me. I have spent years trying to make bet to win, work. It can't. My solution was that - Betting To Win was devised as some sort of a carnival game, where you always lose so the house can win. It looks like what my friend said was correct. It can't be done by me, I suck. Who the hell is betting to win exclusively and profiting from Just Win bets only.? The way to profits was the exotics. Damn, takes me 16 years to figure this out. Minimizing exacta plays, maximizing exacta profits. So is this statement true. Is betting to win and profiting long-term- mathematically impossible ? To me, it is. I am quitting it. My study is in exotics. Preferably exactas. Unique, specialized styles. Please don't post all of my threads. I wanna get everyone thinking. I quit betting to win because of the losing streaks, also. you don't get enough back, when you hit. Exactas, one race -12 dollar investment, get back 187 dollars, twice, a winner with 3 runners, twice, need I say anymore- Goodbye- Bet To Win

jamey1977 · 11-09-2010, 01:04 PM

I said some dumb things about the exactas. What an idiot I was. The losses in this game cause me to question the game itself. I can't make betting to win, work? Who can ? The ones who can, what a heartbreaking way to try to make money. Zenyattas loss proves this. The exactas, we can just relax, if we have methods that work, we know we will hit eventually. It's just the style we play the exactas. I was wrong, damn wrong for saying bad things about the exotics. I've eaten crow, and now I'm on the exotic bandwagon. What I have done, maybe some of the old fogie politicians should do. Learn to try new things, new methods. Discard old conventions. The Key To Profits Is Of Course In The Exotics. Finally, I get it. Finally

Pcon04 · 11-09-2010, 01:05 PM

All exacta playing Sounds good Till u missed the exacta and your horse

wins at 6-1..I bet to win on any exacta I play with the key horse

is 6-1 or higher.Been in the game to long to let 16.00 winners

go by the board.Leaves a bad taste in my mouth always.

thaskalos · 11-09-2010, 01:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jamey1977

That's what a good friend told me. I have spent years trying to make bet to win, work. It can't. My solution was that - Betting To Win was devised as some sort of a carnival game, where you always lose so the house can win. It looks like what my friend said was correct. It can't be done by me, I suck. Who the hell is betting to win exclusively and profiting from Just Win bets only.? The way to profits was the exotics. Damn, takes me 16 years to figure this out. Minimizing exacta plays, maximizing exacta profits. So is this statement true. Is betting to win and profiting long-term- mathematically impossible ? To me, it is. I am quitting it. My study is in exotics. Preferably exactas. Unique, specialized styles. Please don't post all of my threads. I wanna get everyone thinking. I quit betting to win because of the losing streaks, also. you don't get enough back, when you hit. Exactas, one race -12 dollar investment, get back 187 dollars, twice, a winner with 3 runners, twice, need I say anymore- Goodbye- Bet To Win

Yes...it's possible to win making only win bets Jamey...but to the great majority of the betting public, win-betting has become boring and hard to stick with.

In our society today, instant gratification is "king"...and it's no different at the race track. People want to make the big hit RIGHT NOW...and if they get into a losing streak, they want to get even on the NEXT RACE!

WIN betting doesn't offer these things...it's a methodical, mechanical way of betting that aims for profits in the LONG RUN. It doesn't allow you to dream about big hits and life changing scores...and that's why it has been pushed to the background.

Win betting requires a particular frame of mind that the vast majority of the bettors - myself included - no longer possess.

FlyinLate · 11-09-2010, 02:54 PM

Win betting is a long term grind as stated above.
There is no "right way to bet". What I've found is you need to base your bet type around the selections which you have made on any day's card.
You cant always bet to win or you will miss out on those exactas where you loved a few horses to box, have a good horse to single over some longshots you find intriguing, etc.
You cant always bet exactas or you will be kicking yourself in the ass all the time for giving up that 5-1 shot you loved and playing him with a few others you did not have a solid opinion on just to play an exacta.

Don't set yourself on one kind of betting or you are certain to cost yourself some money.

wisconsin · 11-09-2010, 02:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Yes...it's possible to win making only win bets Jamey...but to the great majority of the betting public, win-betting has become boring and hard to stick with.

In our society today, instant gratification is "king"...and it's no different at the race track. People want to make the big hit RIGHT NOW...and if they get into a losing streak, they want to get even on the NEXT RACE!

WIN betting doesn't offer these things...it's a methodical, mechanical way of betting that aims for profits in the LONG RUN. It doesn't allow you to dream about big hits and life changing scores...and that's why it has been pushed to the background.

Win betting requires a particular frame of mind that the vast majority of the bettors - myself included - no longer possess.

I, too, have trouble because I can't sit and wait these things out, because I have a day job and might not play for another week. If that sounds foolish, it's because it is. But who wants to grind out a smaller profit with win bets when you can hit the biggie? I sure miss the days when I was excited about winning $100 on a given day. Nowadays, it does not seem worthwhile to speculate on a bunch of win tickets to make $200. My thinking is flawed, but changing my own attitude is tough, let alone someone else's.

Ocala Mike · 11-09-2010, 02:54 PM

What thasalos said, Jamey. Of course, it's mathematically possible to profit long term from straight bets. All you need (but difficult to obtain) is a strike rate/average win mutuel combination that gets you to the goal. For example, if you are able to score with 25% of your selections, you will need an average mutuel payoff of somewhere north of 3/1 to come out ahead (and so forth and so on for other strike rates/average prices-you do the math).

In fact, I contend that your chances are better with straight bets than exactas because, in most jurisdictions, the takeout is less. As far as those seconds, dq's, and photos, well...you did say "Long Term," right? All that is supposed to even out, unless you're a finger like me!

Ocala Mike

Pell Mell · 11-09-2010, 03:05 PM

I guess because I started a long time before exactas came into being I kind of got use to win and place betting. I like to bet exactas also but I've found that in the last few years the ex payoffs have been getting lower and lower. I have had ex with 2 20/1 shots and have them pay less than 100/1. It also looks like the ex pools are bigger than the win pools at a lot of tracks.

If your pretty quick you can spot some low ex will pays where the horse is really overlaid in the win pool.

I happen to be a longshot player and find my steadiest profits are from win and place betting. This suits me because fairly long losing streaks don't bother me as I've been at it so long and play such longshots that I know the wins will come.

I have also read many times that if you can't show a profit on your win bets that all the betting methods in the world won't make you a winner. At least thats what Quinn and Davidowitz say.

ceejay · 11-09-2010, 03:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jamey1977

Exactas, one race -12 dollar investment, get back 187 dollars, twice, a winner with 3 runners, twice, need I say anymore- Goodbye- Bet To Win

Or if you like a 15:1 long shot that $12 will also net you about $180. If I like a horse at a long price I might use it in gimmicks but if I am right I want to get paid and that is only guaranteed in the win pools.

lansdale · 11-09-2010, 04:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jamey1977

That's what a good friend told me. I have spent years trying to make bet to win, work. It can't. My solution was that - Betting To Win was devised as some sort of a carnival game, where you always lose so the house can win. It looks like what my friend said was correct. It can't be done by me, I suck. Who the hell is betting to win exclusively and profiting from Just Win bets only.? The way to profits was the exotics. Damn, takes me 16 years to figure this out. Minimizing exacta plays, maximizing exacta profits. So is this statement true. Is betting to win and profiting long-term- mathematically impossible ? To me, it is. I am quitting it. My study is in exotics. Preferably exactas. Unique, specialized styles. Please don't post all of my threads. I wanna get everyone thinking. I quit betting to win because of the losing streaks, also. you don't get enough back, when you hit. Exactas, one race -12 dollar investment, get back 187 dollars, twice, a winner with 3 runners, twice, need I say anymore- Goodbye- Bet To Win

Hi jamey,

The following may not be altogether what you're seeking, but is intended to be helpful. I've read a number of your posts here in the last few weeks, and without trying to be offensive, they seem to border on incoherence. You make wildly contradictory claims in different posts, all in the same breathless tone. It's difficult not to come to the conclusion that there are some issues here that have nothing to do with handicapping. You might be better served by kicking back for awhile, thinking about how the game fits into your life, and maybe discussing it with someone outside of the realm of handicapping.

Further: this is an extremely difficult game from which to make consistent profits - 99+% of all horseplayers are losers. Those who do make steady profits from the game have typically worked and studied for years to get there. People who succeed at this game and at other forms of gambling are diligent, steady, methodical, grind-it-out people, not the flamboyant figures of gambling mythology. And most of all, they are not emotional. As blackjack guru Stanford Wong once observed, a gambler needs to be much less emotional than the average person to withstand the swings of variance.

To respond to your post, clearly people make money from every type of bet, including win. You mention exacta play as a panacea, but you offer no long-term (1000 races or so) evidence that you have positive ROI in that area. If you don't, you're deluding yourself.

I hope you think about some of the points I've raised. Again, not trying to be offensive, but to help.

Cheers,

lansdale

pandy · 11-09-2010, 05:17 PM

I'll say this, Jamey, in my experience there are more winning horse players who bet exotics than who bet to win, even though the takeout is higher in the exotic pools. However, to win betting exactas instead of win bets, you still have to be a good handicapper that can show a profit on paper. And, when betting exactas, your skill as a bettor comes into play even more than betting to win. You have to know how to structure your exactas and how to find value in the exacta pools, plus how much to bet on each race, etc.

Once you start moving away from simple exotics, like exactas, and going to super exotics, like the Pick 4 or superfecta, for instance, the chances of showing a profit with a lower skill level (as a handicapper) go up. For instance, there are people who have a lot of money, usually earned outside of gambling, who bet heavily into the Pick 6. This type of deep-pocket player can get lucky and hit a big one once in a while and succeed at the windows even though he is not an outstanding handicapper. Win bets and exactas don't offer that type of scenario, you have to be good at picking winners, spotting live longshots that run 1st or 2nd, and knowing a good overlay that you can key. So it all comes back to your skill level.

magwell · 11-09-2010, 05:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jamey1977

I said some dumb things about the exactas. What an idiot I was. The losses in this game cause me to question the game itself. I can't make betting to win, work? Who can ? The ones who can, what a heartbreaking way to try to make money. Zenyattas loss proves this. The exactas, we can just relax, if we have methods that work, we know we will hit eventually. It's just the style we play the exactas. I was wrong, damn wrong for saying bad things about the exotics. I've eaten crow, and now I'm on the exotic bandwagon. What I have done, maybe some of the old fogie politicians should do. Learn to try new things, new methods. Discard old conventions. The Key To Profits Is Of Course In The Exotics. Finally, I get it. Finally

Jamey..... my best advise is to read Lansdale's in post #10 a couple more times ......

jamey1977 · 11-09-2010, 07:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by magwell

Jamey..... my best advise is to read Lansdale's in post #10 a couple more times ......

A 2 Year attempt. Over 1000 racing forms downloaded. My conclusion, it is mathematically improbable, not impossible. To profit long term, betting to win, only. My friend said impossible. Yes a 10 percent, net after losing streaks that are just terrible. But what if we figured out a proper way to play exactas ?, no we didn't have to box the whole board. Just a couple winners with a few runners in select races. There is our profit right there. It's like with exotics we can beat the house, we can wipe it out. The Win make-up, as I stated before. Is similar to a carnival game. No one can make any damn money at it. And the 2 percent who make money at this game ,stands and Barry Meadow says its even lower. But the exotics, preferably exactas. There are so many possibilities, endless. That's where the R.O.I can be made. But the plays must be limited. Minimize to maximize. The best thing about the exactas is the small hits. The 26 dollar exactas- 35 dollar exactas. Enable us to get our money back. And when the big ones come in. The 237 dollar exactas, we are set to take those as direct profit. The key was in reducing the outlay of plays, reduce the outlays and maximize the profits. We can wipe out the house in exactas. I'm glad, I finally realized this. Win, just doesn't pay enough. A 12.60 winner is nothing compared to a few 86 dollar exactas, that just cost 6 dollars. A winner with 2 runners. And this can be bet 3 times. 18 dollars to make 264 dollars. That can't be beat. The key is playing correctly and profitably.

Valuist · 11-09-2010, 07:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jamey1977

That's what a good friend told me. I have spent years trying to make bet to win, work. It can't. My solution was that - Betting To Win was devised as some sort of a carnival game, where you always lose so the house can win. It looks like what my friend said was correct. It can't be done by me, I suck. Who the hell is betting to win exclusively and profiting from Just Win bets only.? The way to profits was the exotics. Damn, takes me 16 years to figure this out. Minimizing exacta plays, maximizing exacta profits. So is this statement true. Is betting to win and profiting long-term- mathematically impossible ? To me, it is. I am quitting it. My study is in exotics. Preferably exactas. Unique, specialized styles. Please don't post all of my threads. I wanna get everyone thinking. I quit betting to win because of the losing streaks, also. you don't get enough back, when you hit. Exactas, one race -12 dollar investment, get back 187 dollars, twice, a winner with 3 runners, twice, need I say anymore- Goodbye- Bet To Win

I would be leery of your friend or anyone else who uses words like "impossible", "never", or "always" in terms of racetrack handicapping. The most successful handicappers I have met are flexible in their thinking.

CincyHorseplayer · 11-09-2010, 07:57 PM

I have gone back to betting to win for 2 reasons.

1)exotic prices have dropped over the last 5 years

2)got sick of feeling stupid having a $1 exacta ticket that paid $20 when a win bet would have gotten me $75-$150

I've been harping on this a lot lately but it's simple.Don't bet to win on horses less than 2-1 to win.Yes late odds drops will happen but so what.Do this and your average mutuel will be around 7/2,unless all you do all day long is bet 2-1 shots.If you can pick 33% winners at a 9.00 mutuel that's a 49% ROI.

James Quinn convinced me of this being a betting foundation.At worst it preserves your bankroll.And if the mutuel slides a little lower or the hit rate does you are still getting an ROI that is keeping your game alive.Then you get those big exotics,give yourself a pat on the back,tip of the cap,and a golf clap and call it a day!!Seriously though,2 weeks ago I was getting blown out of all my exactas but was just churning out winners,7 in 3 days.I would have gotten smoked had I played all exactas.But the last day $80 exactas were falling off trees.It was sick.But I might have been so rattled by the bustouts I might not have made it to that 3rd day.