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04-09-2018, 11:31 AM
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#16
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pandy
If you are only using final time, they would be the same but velocity ratings are usually based on a combination of several points of call, and the horses that ran faster usually have the lowest, and best, velocity ratings...unless the times are similar. But say you're using the Sartin/Brohamer Average Pace, in a sprint, that is the first, second, and third fraction added and divided by three. Say a horse runs 6 furlongs and goes :22, :44, 1:09 and earns an 80 speed figure (very fast track --15 variant), and another horse runs :23, :46, 1:12 and earns an 80 (average track zero variant)....the 1:09 horse would clearly be ranked as the faster horse using Average Pace, even after applying the track variant. Normally if the variant is -15, you're going to split it for the three fractions, so that would change 22 to 23, 44 to 45, and the last quarter 25 to 26. The other horse is 23, :46, 26. So the horse than ran faster has a second quarter split that is a full second faster, thus, the faster Average Pace even after applying a full second variant to slow down each quarter.
I've run these type of ratings thousands of times and the horses that ran faster raw times get better ratings using the Brohamer/Sartin type of numbers.
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I guess that all depends on how you apply the variant. I make separate variants for the pace calls. Using one for each call never made much sense to me.
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04-09-2018, 11:34 AM
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#17
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Lehigh Valley, PA.
Posts: 7,464
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If your variant for a one mile race is 2 seconds slow, doesn't splitting that in half (1 second slow) and using it to adjust the pace figure for the second call make sense?
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04-09-2018, 11:36 AM
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#18
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pandy
If your variant for a one mile race is 2 seconds slow, doesn't splitting that in half (1 second slow) and using it to adjust the pace figure for the second call make sense?
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I don't think so personally. Races are rarely run evenly, so why split the variant evenly? On dirt races are much faster early than late as any velocity calculations show.
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04-09-2018, 12:25 PM
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#19
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 349
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Quote:
Originally Posted by horseplayer
Brisnet - carries the DRF speed rate and track variant and this can be printed with their past performance generator - 2 tracks I downloaded today Golden Gate and Laurel are missing the speed rate and variant for any race after march 18 - 2018 called Brisnet and they said they are aware of this .
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spoke to Brisnet today and they are still working on it - don't know if a lot of Brisnet users bother with drf spd rate and variant.
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04-09-2018, 12:37 PM
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#20
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crusty old guy
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Snarkytown USA
Posts: 3,909
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Quote:
Originally Posted by horseplayer
spoke to Brisnet today and they are still working on it - don't know if a lot of Brisnet users bother with drf spd rate and variant.
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I want to say that there were studies done a long time ago that showed a better $Net for DRF speed than other more popular (accurate?) speed ratings. I have no idea whether that holds true anymore. If Bris decides to eliminate that data then I hope they roll back prices to what the TSN .eg data files were. Wasn't having to pay for using the DRF SR/TV the reason that .drf files were a buck and .eg files were $.50?
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04-09-2018, 01:02 PM
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#21
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 621
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Figs
When i made my own figures. All I needed was an accurate track variant to outperform the ballyhooed BSFigures in DRF.
i just did NYRA. Aqueduct Inner was the best since all the races were dirt and most were at the same distances.
I gave up with the proliferation of turf racing.
Don't know that i can trust any figures today with such small samples to work with. Plus the multiple conditions for eligibility.
Why I much prefer Harness Racing now and only bet about 1/10 what i used to on the runners.
_____
Pandy, Agree on using multiple sources. I use both HE and TM figures.
PS. Always read your picks on the P4, but, why did you key the favorite as a single last week. thought you said NEVER bet the favorite to Win?
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04-09-2018, 01:24 PM
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#22
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 349
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Quote:
Originally Posted by headhawg
I want to say that there were studies done a long time ago that showed a better $Net for DRF speed than other more popular (accurate?) speed ratings. I have no idea whether that holds true anymore. If Bris decides to eliminate that data then I hope they roll back prices to what the TSN .eg data files were. Wasn't having to pay for using the DRF SR/TV the reason that .drf files were a buck and .eg files were $.50?
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Interesting - for me the fact that they carried the total (spd rate + var) for each horses race was good for me to compare the total (spd rate + var) to the Brisnet figure rating for that race. I am sure whoever is giving this to them they are being charged for it and if they dis-continue - it would be nice to see a price reduction but that is something I doubt will happen
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04-09-2018, 01:40 PM
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#23
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 621
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How much would a DRF PP cost if they didn't have to pay Beyer and his associates.
That's why i say improve the variant calculation and use the old speed rating combined with it.
Dump Beyer.
Second option: Use TFUS figures and still dump Andy.
Third option: DRF could let me buy PP's WITHOUT the BSFigure at a reduced price!!!
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Why the hell they aren't they Kovitz Speed Figures?
Beyer took someone else's idea and called it his own?
That English major, Beyer, could never have come up with them on his own.
Last edited by Denny; 04-09-2018 at 01:44 PM.
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04-09-2018, 03:14 PM
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#24
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,470
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Buy BRIS.
$1 a card. No Beyers.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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04-09-2018, 03:30 PM
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#25
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
Buy BRIS.
$1 a card. No Beyers.
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Or open a Twinspires account and make a $2 bet...and get the day's BRIS card for free.
__________________
Live to play another day.
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04-09-2018, 04:19 PM
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#26
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 621
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Good ideas. DRF is overpriced.
People are paying $10 or $11 for a printed DRF.
How much of that is the BSFigures per track?
Crist and Beyer together drove the price way up.
Crist retired and abandoned the sport.
Beyer makes a healthy income thanks to Crist.
They got eclipse awards for making money off all of us. Still do?
Just my opinion.
Last edited by Denny; 04-09-2018 at 04:24 PM.
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04-09-2018, 05:00 PM
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#27
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Denny
Good ideas. DRF is overpriced.
People are paying $10 or $11 for a printed DRF.
How much of that is the BSFigures per track?
Crist and Beyer together drove the price way up.
Crist retired and abandoned the sport.
Beyer makes a healthy income thanks to Crist.
They got eclipse awards for making money off all of us. Still do?
Just my opinion.
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IMO...you are being terribly unfair to Andy Beyer when you accuse him of "depending on other people" in order to make it big in this game. SO WHAT if he borrowed his speed figure concept from someone else; he gave due credit to the concept's original creator, when he could have easily pretended that the idea was all his own from the start... and, those figures would have gone NOWHERE without Beyer's efforts in promoting and explaining them. The Beyer numbers didn't become the "big deal" that they are because of Sheldon Kovitz's mathematical acumen; they became a big deal because Andy Beyer attached his name and reputation to them. Andy Beyer isn't just a "figure maker". He is the best ambassador that this game could have ever asked for.
"Beyer makes a healthy income thanks to CRIST"? Beyer made his bones in this game before anyone ever knew who Crist WAS!
__________________
Live to play another day.
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04-09-2018, 06:39 PM
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#28
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 621
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Crist hired Beyer for the Racing Times - better figures were available.
Crist brought them to DRF - again, better figures were available - and still are.
People are paying a premium for a substandard set of figures because of Crist and Beyer.
Cronyism. Two writers, one for the NY Times, one for the WP.
The Eclipse award for a substandard product. The fix was in, so to speak. DRF originates the award and it's people vote for winners.
Beyer "stole" the figures from someone and didn't give the figures the originator's name. Only a small mention in the first book.
Which wouldn't even exist if not for Kovitz. Beyer came up with NOTHING on his own.
Kind of like what other famous "inventor's" have done.
[They should, at the very least, be Kovitz/Beyer Speed Figures.]
Beyer is a talented writer and supposedly a successful horseplayer.
You'd never know from the selections he makes every year for the Derby.
I think he made far, far more on his books and selling the figs now than he ever did betting horses.
Last edited by Denny; 04-09-2018 at 06:45 PM.
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04-09-2018, 06:45 PM
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#29
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Denny
Crist hired Beyer for the Racing Times - better figures were available.
Crist brought them to DRF - again, better figures were available - and still are.
People are paying a premium for a substandard set of figures because of Crist and Beyer.
Cronyism. Two writers, one for the NY Times, one for the WP.
The Eclipse award for a substandard product. The fix was in, so to speak. DRF originates the award and it's people vote for winners.
Beyer "stole" the figures from someone and didn't give the figures the originator's name. Only a small mention in the first book.
Which wouldn't even exist if not for Kovitz. Beyer came up with NOTHING on his own.
Kind of like what other famous "inventor's" have done.
[They should, at the very least, be Kovitz/Beyer Speed Figures.]
Beyer is a talented writer and supposedly a successful horseplayer.
You'd never know from the selections he makes every year for the Derby.
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Which were the "better figures" that Crist could have elected to include in the Racing Times?
__________________
Live to play another day.
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04-09-2018, 07:20 PM
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#30
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 3
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Regression Analysis Handicapping
Having been a true fan of thoroughbred racing and have studied most of the "Angles" for over thirty years, I have found Regression Analysis handicapping to be very effective and useful especially for exotic considerations.
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