I'm convinced more than ever....

[Sekrah]

I've been handicapping 12+ years now and I've become convinced more than ever that Class Handicapping, with a sprinkle of pace (quick peeks at early fractions) defeats Speed Handicapping.

The only thing Class Handicapping needs is someone to come along and revolutionize the way class is looked at the same way Beyer and Ragozin did for speed figures. As of right now BRIS are the champs and I believe I would out-handicap any Sheets/TG player with BRIS PPs (with Race/Class Ratings+Pace Figs)

Not saying you can't win with Sheets/TG, you certaintly can, you won't find better final time adjustments, but I'm convinced more than ever that Class is King and the claiming market is much more efficient and reliable than voodoo track variants based on a ridiculously small sample size of races.

[illinoisbred]

Originally Posted by Sekrah

I've been handicapping 12+ years now and I've become convinced more than ever that Class Handicapping, with a sprinkle of pace (quick peeks at early fractions) defeats Speed Handicapping.

The only thing Class Handicapping needs is someone to come along and revolutionize the way class is looked at the same way Beyer and Ragozin did for speed figures. As of right now BRIS are the champs and I believe I would out-handicap any Sheets/TG player with BRIS PPs (with Race/Class Ratings+Pace Figs)

Not saying you can't win with Sheets/TG, you certaintly can, you won't find better final time adjustments, but I'm convinced more than ever that Class is King and the claiming market is much more efficient and reliable than voodoo track variants based on a ridiculously small sample size of races.

Not to refute your point,but I think class, or any assessment of it is very track specific. Even if you don't want to use figures, I'd recommend a good starting point would be to construct par times for the tracks you play. Use a large sample[a couple of years], do all classes and conditions, avoid the so-called "standard" deductions for age,sex,state-breds, or nw2,3,etc.-they really don't work. After doing this ,you will have a pretty good idea of the class hierarchy of you track, which can be very useful in assessing class. If you play Hawthorne, you will know its not asking much for a fit f/m to move from 4,000 to 10,000,or reversely, its not much of a drop for a f/m from 10,000-4,000. Older maiden specials are particularily weak at Hawthorne. Its a full second jump to go from ms to nw2/nw1x allowance, but this gap doesn't exist with state-breds. These kind of things could be helpful in understanding "class" at your track.

[kenwoodallpromos]

That is the stated reason why they rely so heavily on claiming conditions to seperate out runners- it is supposed to be a reliable way to CLASSify the track stock.
IMHO one of the best ways to handicap is to consider what the track tries to do to equalize the competition and then "reverse engineer" the condition book according to the individual horse's record. At least in my theory; Unless there is/are factor(s) strong enough to mess up the book/class intent, like the effect of weather or mainainence on a runner. Very wet sand vs. very dry sand can mean a lot, just like runing at the beach.
That is one reason I like NYRA- the track is very consistent even in the worst eather, so their tracks are more class-reliable.
I honestly cannot say the same for some smaller circuits, or Plubber tracks in SoCal or Woodbine. NorCal, Keeneland seem to be more consistent at doing better at betting with the crowd along with the major dirt tracks in so far as the most expectedly consistent races (turf and dirt sprints).
But I throw out class when I know the track is sealed/rolled!
I would love to know a simple way to code the real current class of every horse!

[fmolf]

I like the bris ultimates as well... I like to look for what class level a horse was competive at in regards to his pace figures.....some early speed horses just do not have the class to run late at a certain level but finish well at lower levels.ditto for late runners in the faster races obviously the lower class horses cannot finish as strongly.the bris #'s help to determine this as well as the race ratings they supply help to determine which races might be better than others within the same class very helpful comparing open races to state bred races.

[the_fat_man]

Compare Lance Armstrong in his prime to another, less accomplished professional cyclist. Have them compete over a mountain race, where Armstrong EXCELLED. Have a slew of other riders WORK to get the other cyclist a nice SETUP and have Armstrong try to set the pace and WIRE the field, if you will. Or, have Armstrong get an unaided trip (or, at least, a trip significantly WORSE than the other cyclist). Guess what? The other cyclist wins the race.

So, while what you refer to as 'CLASS' trumps speed (and/or pace) figures, SETUP trumps CLASS. Especially on non speed biased tracks.

Until someone is able to QUANTIFY (MODEL) the events of a race, FIGURES won't be as affective as SETUP analysis.

[markgoldie]

Originally Posted by Sekrah

I've been handicapping 12+ years now and I've become convinced more than ever that Class Handicapping, with a sprinkle of pace (quick peeks at early fractions) defeats Speed Handicapping.

The only thing Class Handicapping needs is someone to come along and revolutionize the way class is looked at the same way Beyer and Ragozin did for speed figures. As of right now BRIS are the champs and I believe I would out-handicap any Sheets/TG player with BRIS PPs (with Race/Class Ratings+Pace Figs)

Not saying you can't win with Sheets/TG, you certaintly can, you won't find better final time adjustments, but I'm convinced more than ever that Class is King and the claiming market is much more efficient and reliable than voodoo track variants based on a ridiculously small sample size of races.

I have stated many times on this forum that one of the key failures of speed fig handicappers is they do not realize there is a class element to the earning of a fig number. I have been adjusting figs to class for many years with a reasonably good result. Things being equal, when you put a horse into a higher class, he will run a lower number than in a lower class. The speed-fig guru, Andrew Beyer, has never acknowledged in print that the speed fig is class-sensitive. In fact, he has stated the opposite. However, this proposition has been hedged a bit by the admission that figs earned in graded stakes are a special case and are somehow more potent than those earned in non-graded races. My question, of course, would be why this is not an admission that figs in general are class sensitive.

As for your handicapping methodology, its success is dependent on the tipping of the scales, so to speak, such that the majority of serious money is number-based. However, I try (in my own way) to have it both ways.

Briefly (because I have written this before), I add 2 points to a fig earned in a higher class if the horse is a speed type (any horse with 4 or more Quirin speed points) and 1 point if a non-speed type (3 or lower Quirin points) for each class higher than the current competition. I cap the adjustment at 10 points. I also use pace adjustments to the final-speed fig (which I won't detail here but which can be found in my earlier posts). IMO, this allows me to use both speed and class considerations when handicapping.

[Show Me the Wire]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Compare Lance Armstrong in his prime to another, less accomplished professional cyclist. Have them compete over a mountain race, where Armstrong EXCELLED. Have a slew of other riders WORK to get the other cyclist a nice SETUP and have Armstrong try to set the pace and WIRE the field, if you will. Or, have Armstrong get an unaided trip (or, at least, a trip significantly WORSE than the other cyclist). Guess what? The other cyclist wins the race.

So, while what you refer to as 'CLASS' trumps speed (and/or pace) figures, SETUP trumps CLASS. Especially on non speed biased tracks.

Until someone is able to QUANTIFY (MODEL) the events of a race, FIGURES won't be as affective as SETUP analysis.

There are very few Lance Armstrongs among horses. Horses are herd animals and react with instinct, thus their ability is a reflection of their instinctual act.

Good horses and decent horses win with set-ups, ie. sitting behind a speed duel, etc, classier horses overcome disadvantaged set-ups or trouble to win.

A simple definition to describe class is the horse's ability to be put in position to win and how the horse reacts the situation. A class animal is the one that overcomes disadvantaged trips to win.

[Tom]

It is always those who do not understand how to use figures that make general ( and ridiculous) statements about them. Two more in this thread.

When someone who as proven themselves adept in both figures and whatever the other method is and can make an intelligent comment about them both, let me know. So far, I have only heard from those who think their way is best and have nothing to compare it to beside their own failures with the other.

Little boys think their "blessings" are just wonderful, until their first gym shower rocks their world!

[Handiman]

I believe it boils down to this.....before one can do anything or make any claims about class over or less than something else, what class is comprised of must be ascertained.

Some sing the mantra of class is speed. Others claim it's breeding. And then there are others who claim it's situational response. By it's very nature, class is esoteric and can not be painted with just one brush.

It's my contention that class, as a usable factor, must be decided on by the individual handicapper and then used in a way relational to other factors used by that handicapper resulting in positive results. And if you can not do this, then it doesn't matter what class is, because you as the handicapper can not count on class as a factor regardless of what it consists of or how it is constructed.

Bottom line is that class is not linear as is speed or maybe pace or even purse value. You now have my 2 cents on class, which might actually be over priced.

Handi

[Show Me the Wire]

Originally Posted by Handiman

I believe it boils down to this.....before one can do anything or make any claims about class over or less than something else, what class is comprised of must be ascertained.

Some sing the mantra of class is speed. Others claim it's breeding. And then there are others who claim it's situational response. By it's very nature, class is esoteric and can not be painted with just one brush.

It's my contention that class, as a usable factor, must be decided on by the individual handicapper and then used in a way relational to other factors used by that handicapper resulting in positive results. And if you can not do this, then it doesn't matter what class is, because you as the handicapper can not count on class as a factor regardless of what it consists of or how it is constructed.

Bottom line is that class is not linear as is speed or maybe pace or even purse value. You now have my 2 cents on class, which might actually be over priced.

Handi

Class is esoteric when it is described as the ability to carry speed over an amount of ground with weight.

However, a functional determination can be made using speed figures and race elgibility conditions to quantify the ability of the field and the corresponding ability of the animal to secure a position to win from.

Of course the later part takes some knowledge about placement of the horse in the race at important segments.

[11cashcall]

Originally Posted by Sekrah

I've been handicapping 12+ years now and I've become convinced more than ever that Class Handicapping, with a sprinkle of pace (quick peeks at early fractions) defeats Speed Handicapping.

The only thing Class Handicapping needs is someone to come along and revolutionize the way class is looked at the same way Beyer and Ragozin did for speed figures. As of right now BRIS are the champs and I believe I would out-handicap any Sheets/TG player with BRIS PPs (with Race/Class Ratings+Pace Figs)

Not saying you can't win with Sheets/TG, you certaintly can, you won't find better final time adjustments, but I'm convinced more than ever that Class is King and the claiming market is much more efficient and reliable than voodoo track variants based on a ridiculously small sample size of races.

TG along with Bris pps can offer the handicapper a powerfully conformation
advantage.

[JohnGalt1]

William L. Scott's Performance Class Ratings work for me.

Three main reasons--

It forces me to look at and rate all races in the pp's.

PCR numbers work for all surfaces and weather conditions.

Few handicappers bother to create and use them.

Though important, class comparisons are only 25-33% of my handicapping.

[proximity]

Originally Posted by Sekrah

As of right now BRIS are the champs and I believe I would out-handicap any Sheets/TG player with BRIS PPs (with Race/Class Ratings+Pace Figs).......

didn't you just hit a 56-1 shot the other day based on tg figures??

and now three days later "bris are the champs".....

[Sekrah]

I'm glad you brought that up.

That 56-1, Rahystrada, that I threw into my exotics mix did have the fastest Thorograph figure last time out vs everyone elses last time out. However, if you were to use typical Thorograph/Sheets speed handicapping methodology and pattern reading, The 0 he ran in that Keenland race would have taken too much of a toll out of him. Rahystada would of been a tossout as the horse would have been forecast to "bounce.

In the same race, Rahystrada earned 121 BRIS Class Rating (winning the very strong 118 Race at Keeneland) which would put him right there with everyone else and a definite use at 56-1.

However, Thorograph numbers completely spit on Pleasant Strike who nearly wrecked my exacta ticket by getting nudged out for 2nd by Rahy's Attorney, who I used. Pleasant Strike's career top was a 1 and he was coming into the race with 4 consecutive 3's and wouldn't figure to improve any more late in his 5yo campaign, BRIS Class Ratings made Pleasant Strike a contender with his solid 2nd place finishes in a pair of Grade 3 races. He was a toss on Thorograph.

The 4th place finisher Wicked Style also looked more favorable on BRIS than TG, where he figured to "bounce" off his career top of 2.

My ticket in that was 4-6-10/1-4-6-9-10. Another longshot, #10 Cryptolight figured on Thorograph to be competitive. TG figs indicated to me that he was just as good on turf as on dirt, with him pairing his top in his last turf race. BRIS had that August 1st Mountaineer listed stakes turf race an extremely soft field with a RR of 115, the weakest field Cryptolight had seen in some time, and he still couldn't win despite a golden trip. If he were as good on turf as dirt, he would of won that race.

Anyway, this is one race and obviously one race shouldn't be used to judge one method or another. Anyone can pull a single race out and show one method outperforming the other. But I've gone back and forth between the services over the years, sometimes using them in conjucture with each other and my revelation this past weekend is that Class trumps Speed and that trying to forecast patterns and "bounces" based on very rough speed figures is looney tunes.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Cramer already showed after a huge survey that speed figures go up on drops and down on rises to the 6-8 point variety.

In the land of nearly all restricted races here in Ohio.Class moves are big.The subtle the better.