Feel sorry for TVG analysts

[Light]

Tracked all TB picks on their website in the last week. Sunday to Sunday. Here are the results:

	

	6/21/09	Invest	Return
			
MrB	Mth4	36	0
MrB	Bel4	36	0
Simon	Hol4	36	0
Matt	Bel4	20	0
Matt	Hol4	48	0

	6/22/09	Invest	Return

Rich	FL4	30	107.5
Rich	Pha3	6	0
Rich	Pha3	20	21.7
Rich	Pha3	42	0
NickH	Col3	12	0
NickH	Col4	36	0
NickH	Ind4	48	0
NickH	MnrDD	12	0
NickH	PrM4	72	56

	6/23/09	Invest	Return

Rich	FL4	45	0
Rich	FL4	96	0
Rich	Pha3	18	67.2
Rich	Pha3	24	91
Rich	Pha3	20	11.9
NickH	Col3	18	0
NickH	Col4	36	0
NickH	PrM4	54	350.5
NickH	RD3	18	15.8
NickH	Ind4	36	0
NickH	MnrDD	18	38

	6/24/09	Invest	Return

Simon	Bel4	12	0
Simon	Bel6	98	0
Simon	Mth4	36	0
MattC	WO3	12	0
Todd	Bel4	60	0
Todd	Mth4	60	124.8
FrankM	Stk4	24	0

	6/25/09	Invest	Return

ChrisK	Bel4	3	0
ChrisK	Hol4	32	0
ChrisK	Mth3	18	0
MrB	Bel4	18	0
MrB	Mth4	12	0
Simon	Hol4	24	0

	6/26/09	Invest	Return

MrB	Mth4	36	0
MattC	Mth4	54	0
MattC	Bel4	60	0
Rich	Bel4	48	164
Rich	LaD3	24	0
Rich	WO3	24	0
Todd	Hol4	60	0
Todd	Hol4	48	0
NickH	Hol4	36	0
NickH	Hol4	54	0
NickH	Hol3	45	53.9

	6/27/09	Invest	Return

MrB	Mth4	36	107
MrB	Bel4	36	0
Matt	Hol4	18	0
Matt	Hol4	30	0
Matt	Bel4	36	0
Simon	Hol4	4	0

	6/28/09	Invest	Return

Matt	Bel4	48	0
Matt	Hol4	42	0
Matt	Hol6	144	0
MrB	Bel4	36	0
Simon	Hol4	48	0
Simon	Hol6	96	0

Total investment is $2309. Return is $1209. -47% ROI. O.k. that's pretty sad. Anyone on this board would be advised to give it a rest. I dont mean to bash these guys,cause I have nothing against them personally. Its just that they are doing a great disservice to any of their fans that do bet their tickets. If it wasn't for Nick Hines hitting the PRM Pk4,it would have been much worse.He was the only one with a positive ROI,a paltry 6%. I think they single way too much in the Pk4's.I believe all the pk4's that hit did not have a single.Yet they keep repeating this losing strategy.

I dont see how publically displaying one's ineptness over and over again is good for business. I know they are shills for their business,but this can only hurt. The excuse that its hard to be a public capper doesn't fly here because as you can see,they spread the handicapping load around quite nicely amongst themselves so they can concentrate on their assignments.

I have one more week before I go on vacation and will update then. Maybe Hjack or someone can take over after that.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally Posted by Light

Total investment is $2309. Return is $1209. -47% ROI. O.k. that's pretty sad.

I actually think that is a higher ROI than normal for them.

[slew101]

Thanks for collecting and posting this information. Looks like Rich scored a few decent tickets and was competitive.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

This is where you have to be careful. According to your tabulations, Rich Perloff wagered $349 and had a return of $463, as the $96 FingerLakes Pik4 was actually a 50 cent wager that is listed as $96 but in actuality is a $48 play. His ROI in that week, according to your calculations listed was about +30%. He swept the Philly Park Pik3's one day, and rather than accentuate the doom and gloom, it might be proper to demonstrate how to glean a gem when it comes down the pike.

[CBedo]

I have no doubt that over a longer time frame, their results would probably be equally as bad, but I would caution about judging performance over only one week's time.

If you looked back at my last year's records, I'm solidly profitable in the pick 4, but if you randomly sample one specific week from the whole 52, there is a very good chance the results would look horrendous. These multi-race exotics are low probability, high reward instruments (unless you play them the way some of the TVG guys do--then they're high investment, low return plays, hehe).

Not to mention the fact that I am very selective in my plays, and these guys have to put up a ticket whenever they are on the air.

Like I said, not defending them, just tempering my disdain.....

[bigmack]

Originally Posted by Light

Its just that they are doing a great disservice to any of their fans that do bet their tickets. If it wasn't for Nick Hines hitting the PRM Pk4,it would have been much worse.He was the only one with a positive ROI,a paltry 6%. I think they single way too much in the Pk4's.I believe all the pk4's that hit did not have a single.Yet they keep repeating this losing strategy.

People bet what TV Folk hawk? Shame on them.

Actually, shame on you for having the incline to audit the picks of the aforementioned "TV Folk". Most Silly Award goes to.........

AKA - Who gives a Rats Ass?

[Sid]

One strong strain of last week's TVG thread was the silliness of pick 4 and pick 6 mania, and the fact that these guys obviously are required to make such wagers and make them at a certain wager limit. Yet multi-race wagers are all that is tracked in the above stats, no? What were the results on win picks? Why would anyone expect anyone else to show a profit on pick 4s and pick 6s in a week . . . or even a month?

[Bruddah]

some months back and came to the conclusions as those previously posted.

I then came to the epiphany these guys are paid to fill air time and keep the advertisers happy. I also came to the Eureka moment I could pick more winners than they could pick their noses or scratch the brains they were sitting on. As far as entertainment value, watching Buzzards circle road kill is more educational.

Frankly, they put me to

[Sid]

Do y'all remember when "48 Hours" -- not the movie, but the TV show -- debuted on CBS? Remember the segment they were doing that was the videographic/quasijournalistic equivalent of your Uncle Harley asking, "Well yeah, but can you make money at that game?" In which they took a camera and tracked Andy Beyer playing an entire card at Laurel. Someone here will confirm or deny my recollection, but my pixels tell me Andy bet every race and did not cash a ticket. It happens to everyone.

I still would like to see, if someone is going to the trouble of tracking this stuff, the straight-win results.

None of which has anything to do with defending these particular people. One might, in fact, find some meaning in a far more positive result on the flat-win side. Or not. Of course.

[fmolf]

Originally Posted by Bruddah

some months back and came to the conclusions as those previously posted.

I then came to the epiphany these guys are paid to fill air time and keep the advertisers happy. I also came to the Eureka moment I could pick more winners than they could pick their noses or scratch the brains they were sitting on. As far as entertainment value, watching Buzzards circle road kill is more educational.

Frankly, they put me to

mostly all of their tickets contain the top three favorites in every leg.....except when they single.they are just filling air time and trying to generate interest in the serial wagers......the on air shows would be a little confusing if they played trifectas and exactas and supers on air all the time.Iprefer watching hrtv but the tracks i follow are on tvg.more about handicapping horses and less about announcers picks on hrtv.

[Marshall Bennett]

I'm glad someone is willing to go forward with a study of their ROI , however I must agree with sid ( post # 7 ) that to come to any conclusion as to their success without giving them the benefit of a long range analysis may not be fair . particularly where the pick4 / pick6 is concerned . I don't expect possitive results either from these guys , but lets give them the benefit of the doubt . I don't see harm in posting a weekly account none the less .

[DanG]

Originally Posted by bigmack

People bet what TV Folk hawk? Shame on them.

Actually, shame on you for having the incline to audit the picks of the aforementioned "TV Folk". Most Silly Award goes to.........

AKA - Who gives a Rats Ass?

I’m probably late in seeing your posts BM; but welcome back my friend. We were passing the hat to fund a search party a while back.

TVG: Anything that starts this many threads can’t be all bad. These oak trees are really denying me some serious fun.

[Track Phantom]

It isn't hard to figure out. Just like most public handicappers, they pick the "obvious" horses. Rarely, and I mean very rarely, does someone picking publicly select a horse that has hidden form and have justification why that makes you take a second look.

I'll bet you can identify who they will select on top from a group of three or four horses in every race.

It actually is quite comical.

[Grits]

At the risk of irritating many, a suggestion. A little exercise for a few weeks.

Give out your own picks. One pick per race daily. Two, even--if you can't land on one, go with your top two choices. If an entire card is too demanding, settle on three races per day. Or if this is not to your liking, start with designated bankroll, bet however you choose to. (Such details are easily worked out--alternates for scratches, etc.) Its doable.

The TVG guys do it everyday. One hears them do it. They go with a horse to win--just about every race. Pick 4 or pick 6 are only part of their telecast each day. Those are, as indicated, simply rolling bets using a designated amount of money. DRF, same thing. Their handicappers do it everyday, as do all public handicappers.

As Sid noted, as Big Mack noted, "the week thing doesn't mean a rat's ass." One week out of 52. Two weeks wouldn't mean anything either, of course.

Give it a try . . . . say through the upcoming entire Saratoga and DelMar meets. West coast guys are more accustomed to DelMar, east coast guys more familiar with Saratoga.

A good deal of what one hears at this website is "they're idiots, I could pick my (insert whatever body part you prefer) better than these guys all day."

Try it, put it to rest, let's see how ignorant the public guys are. And how many of you guys have the guts to back up your bravado with your choices--at which point you can rightfully claim "mine's bigger (roi) and you and they, are all idiots."

It certainly would help lay much to rest and five weeks is a far more suitable time frame than one week. An entire race meet is a good start. Its not Keeneland so there's no reason to back off due to surface, configuration complaints, etc, etc. Its not the Big A's dead of winter, frozen dirt.

If you don't like DelMar's fake dirt, bet Saratoga's old fashioned dirt.

Fellas, honestly, the only thing, more resoundingly boring than a braggart is a cheap talking braggart behind a keyboard.

A simple exercise for all the brilliance at home, not on the airwaves or in the reading public each day--one that I'll be surprised by--if anyone is willing to participate in.

And absolutely, not forgetting--ANY AND ALL REBATERS ARE WELCOME, let's see how long you'd last without that bit of coin coming back to you each day.

Again, just a suggestion--one garnered from lots and lots of reading.

[MickJ26]

The only TVG tickets I sometimes play is Ed Burghart at Los Al.
He's the announcer and morning line oddsmaker and personally sees about 99.9% of the races at the track.
His tickets aren't going to be signers, but, I'd venture to guess his tickets hit more than not.