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05-10-2018, 10:42 AM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter
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Field size may be critical. He gets himself in trouble in big fields.
I am ultimately skeptical of his chances on the win end because Justify dominated him in the SA Derby and he had no excuses there.
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05-10-2018, 10:44 AM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,753
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter
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Still 10 days out, but the weather channel stated rain for Preakness week, Tuesday, Wed, Thurs, Friday & possibly Preakness day on Saturday.......hopefully it clears up & the forecasters are wrong like they usually are, we shall see.
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05-10-2018, 10:51 AM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 1,362
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if bolt and good magic go might be able to get 3/5 on Justify
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05-10-2018, 10:53 AM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,753
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter
if bolt and good magic go might be able to get 3/5 on Justify
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If they both run, you might see 4/5, especially with all the lame foot problem in the media.
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05-10-2018, 10:55 AM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
Field size may be critical. He gets himself in trouble in big fields.
I am ultimately skeptical of his chances on the win end because Justify dominated him in the SA Derby and he had no excuses there.
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horse stuff happens though and the best horse gets beat, and he has at least run fast races. I see no reason to keep the horse in the barn and fully support running the horse.
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05-10-2018, 11:14 AM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 3,208
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I think he's only good up to 9 furlongs. Not buying the wet track excuse.
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05-10-2018, 11:45 AM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 245
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Jeez,
The twitter link in the article says they are considering running him on the turf at Penn National on Penn MIle Day as a "Plan B"!
That is both amazing and weird.
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05-10-2018, 11:52 AM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,757
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I loved Bolt until he went on the track
He looked pretty sore to me. If Victor shows up on his back you might have a vety possible upset in the Preakness
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05-10-2018, 12:34 PM
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#10
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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He's right there in that 2nd or 3rd 'tier' behind Justify and Good Magic.
Meaning; He's one of the top horses. 
One of the more 'complex' reads in terms of form.
- BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE- Lost enough ground that it wasn't clear whether Bolt or Good Magic ran a better race. Literal form suggested that Bolt disappointed by finishing 3rd by almost 5,-but actual performance difference was negligible.
- SAN FELIPE STAKES; inherited poor position after the break, Mike Smith fully exploited superior position on McKinzie and was 'sitting' with a SIGNIFICANT tactical advantage approaching the far turn. Castellano adapted by moving prematurely. Bolt made a bold wide move and Bolt/Castellano fouled McKinzie on that turn. Mike Smith reacted by fouling Bolt repeatedly in the stretch. The tactical advantage issue, and fouls made it nearly impossible to make a precise performance appraisal. Lost in the hoopla =Bolt flattened out a bit late.
- SANTA ANITA DERBY - Mike Smith took the initiative after the break by going to the lead in a race that lacked cheap speed, Justify had a huge tactical advantage initially, but lost in the hoopla= Smith/Justify made an error entering the backstretch by getting into the bit too much. This offset some of the tactical advantage, and Bolt ran well but should have capitalized a little more making it closer at the end. He flattened out a bit.
- KY DERBY - Bolt ran well but the issue with flattening-out seemed to reach 'CRITICAL MASS' when Pace/Groundloss/Distance/Conditions overwhelmed Bolt.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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05-10-2018, 01:25 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
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Mike Smith reacted by fouling Bolt repeatedly in the stretch
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thats a stretch, and Bolt about knocked McKinzie over coming out of the turn.
The fact he is looking to cut the horse back as many of his options tells me even his trainer is concerned that he might not want more distance.
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05-10-2018, 02:39 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 1,033
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he needs to put Nakatani back on the horse, but that will never happen.
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05-10-2018, 03:04 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
horse stuff happens though and the best horse gets beat, and he has at least run fast races. I see no reason to keep the horse in the barn and fully support running the horse.
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Agreed
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05-10-2018, 03:17 PM
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#14
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
Agreed
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Same, but they really let to need this horse relax early and try to make a run late. Trying to keep up with Justify early isn't going to work as we've already seen twice now.
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05-10-2018, 03:27 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
Same, but they really let to need this horse relax early and try to make a run late. Trying to keep up with Justify early isn't going to work as we've already seen twice now.
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I think they will try to go for the lead cause they dont think they can catch him.
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