Pakistan Star

[picojim]

replay
https://twitter.com/HKJC_Racing/stat...99786320891905

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by chenoa

Horse stepped up to Class 2, broke decent enough, looked to me as if Chadwick was starting to wind up around the 950m mark but went backwards/took up for a few strides around the 800m. Just too much ground to make up. Not the greatest ride. But a fine showing by the horse nevertheless.

That's certainly an understatement. I think if any of the top jocks were on board the outcome might have been different. Still quite a run for only its 3rd start.

Class 2 - 1400M (7F)- (100-80)	Going :	GOOD TO FIRM
WOODPECKER HANDICAP	       Course :	TURF - "C" COURSE
HK$ 1,750,000	($350,000 US)  Time :	(13.56)	(35.46)	(58.24)	(1.21.09)
 	               Sectional Time :	13.56	21.90	22.78	22.85

They mentioned after the race that PkStar was 15 lengths back at the head of the stretch! Closed a ton to finish 2nd – 2 ½ lengths back at the wire (Finish time - 1.21.49). I’m looking forward to seeing how it runs at 1600M (8F) and longer.

[woodbinepmi]

Originally Posted by woodbinepmi

On my speed figures he got a 91.8 for the first 1000 metres then a 111 for the final 400 metres for a final figure of 202.8, which is fast enough to win at Class 2. He is visually impressive, reminds me a lot of Dehere. Hopefully they won't weigh him down too much against more seasoned runners.

The maiden in race 2 (30) on Sunday Jing Jing Win also looked good, but the field he caught was a very weak Class 4. His speed figures were 95.6+105.7=201.3 which makes him competitive in Class 3.

In his race Sunday, his figures came back 92.3+109.1=201.4, while Mr. Bogart's were 100+103.9=203.9. Par for 1400 metres at Class 2 is 201.2.

[Nitro]

Update:

Pakistan Star will be running again in the 9th Race @ Sha Tin this Sun 11/20/16 (4:15 AM EST)
Up until now all its races have been at 1200M (6F) and 1400M (7F) on the Turf.
This one is at 1600M (8F). I believe this distance (or even longer) will suit its running style very well.

BTW Races 6 thru 10 are all very classy races. It looks like a great card!

[chenoa]

Current odds 1.4 ($2.80 North American payout)

The pace makers will be going come the top of the stretch.

Hope he puts on a good show.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by chenoa

Current odds 1.4 ($2.80 North American payout)

The pace makers will be going come the top of the stretch.

Hope he puts on a good show.

The early line on Pakistan Star is also causing some idiosyncrasies on the lines of the other entries.
If it doesn’t run as anticipated this race will have some big value. For that reason I’ll be watching the pools on the other entries very closely to determine if there will be any others trying to pull an upset.

I’ll be rooting for P.S., but this is horse racing!

[steveb]

Originally Posted by Nitro

Update:

Pakistan Star will be running again in the 9th Race @ Sha Tin this Sun 11/20/16 (4:15 AM EST)
Up until now all its races have been at 1200M (6F) and 1400M (7F) on the Turf.
This one is at 1600M (8F). I believe this distance (or even longer) will suit its running style very well.

BTW Races 6 thru 10 are all very classy races. It looks like a great card!

i have got it as a $5 chance, albeit the favourite in my model
not that it means much because my hk model is not going that good at the moment, and i have not updated the coefficients for yonkers

but i think it is a fallacy that because of its running style it will be better suited over more ground.
certainly if i was a betting man, i would be happy to bet against it
it's last 400m numbers are astronomical, but would they be the same if it was closer to the pace?

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by steveb

i have got it as a $5 chance, albeit the favourite in my model
not that it means much because my hk model is not going that good at the moment, and i have not updated the coefficients for yonkers

but i think it is a fallacy that because of its running style it will be better suited over more ground.
certainly if i was a betting man, i would be happy to bet against it
it's last 400m numbers are astronomical, but would they be the same if it was closer to the pace?

Well it looks like your thoughts were correct. Although P.S. once again closed smartly for 2nd losing by 1/2 a length, he may have once again been too far back early on. The race was clocked at 134.02 for the mile, so it was a decent. Unfortunately the early pace was relatively slow with these fractions: (24.32) / (47.72) / (1.11.00)
Not bad for only its 4th start and from what the commentators mentioned its fairly typical for that trainer (A.S. Cruz) to bring them along gradually.
I guess we'll just have to wait and see how P.S. develops.

[ultracapper]

Each quarter faster than the previous. Very difficult for a dead closer to win under those conditions. Sounds as though he's a very interesting horse.

[steveb]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

Each quarter faster than the previous. Very difficult for a dead closer to win under those conditions. Sounds as though he's a very interesting horse.

if you checked, then you would see that is the norm there.
you need to know the best way to pace the race over any particular course, and then figure from there how the individual races/horses fared, measured against that norm.

the race pace in that race was actually a little faster than the norm.
although pakistan star has paced the race the most inefficiently, but that is how they choose to ride it.(i don't believe that the running styles of the majority of horses is anything other than rider/trainer choice.)
the speed of the race was also a little faster than the norm.

[Nitro]

Update:

Pakistan Star will be running again in the 10th Race @ Sha Tin this morning: Sun 12/11/16 (5:50 AM EST)
This will be its 5th start and is also at 1600M (8F).

It looks like a great card from top to bottom!

[chenoa]

Last race on the card on International Day.

Horse currently at 1.6, if some of these other big favs come in the all up money could see this go off even lower.

The whole grandstand will be on this.

What better reason to keep him off the board and finish 4th.

Hope I'm wrong.

[handyman1968]

This upcoming last race on HK International day is full of potential future HK stars. Eagle Way is the Queensland Derby winner and brought over for the HK Derby. Western Express is unbeaten lifetime (Australia and HK) and won at a very unsuitable 6f last start. Lucky Girl was in last year's derby and a legit Class 2 horse.

Basically I rather take the odds of Western Express + Eagle Way against Pakistan Star.

[chenoa]

As I thought it would.

Chadwick dooped this horse. Any doubt, take a look at head on patrol footage replay of his first win of the season and yesterday. Exact same path the top of the stretch. Chadwick's use of the whip much different yesterday and made sure he was wide and went even wider just before the line to make sure he was a non-factor.

One thing certain, the Star is a very nice race horse.

Expect a dominating performance by Pakistan Star next out to get the HYPE back up in Hong Kong. And I think Chadwick will still be aboard.

[ebcorde]

you people have to stop listening to those Aussie/Brit Announcers , I feel asleep last night but I'm sure they were touting that loser... AGAIN

News Flash: If those Brits and Aussie woman ("he walks on his toes") likes a Horse, GET OFF IT