Quote:
Originally Posted by v j stauffer
With due respect it's about horse playing philosophy not life psychology.
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What he said!
I'm usually very consistent such that losing weeks are rare. (Playing a large number of races helps that consistency.)
My experience is that when I show a net loss over a week or more it is usually because something has changed in the game that has a direct impact on how my system works.
That causes me to to question whether or not my approach is still working as it did. (So, I stopped playing.)
Such was the case this year. I experienced some early losers and stepped back to verify how well my own approach was working. The answer was, that it wasn't.
Interestingly, the individual factor/object hit rates had not changed very much - not much more than the normal downward slide of return for the better horses.
But something has changed this year.
Whales retool in the winter and, assuming it works out (for them), the game may see a change during February.
Such appears to be the case this year. I've found that my winners are being bet down more than ever relative to my projected odds. This just killed my profitability.
Fortunately, I pulled the plug very early on.
So, I've spent the last 4 months working on retooling my own system. It is finally coming together, but not without some very drastic changes to my game.
About the original poster's question...
I think most players do not expect to win long term and so the definition is really not about a "losing streak" as much as it is "getting slaughtered."
For the record, that is what happened to me: I got slaughtered for slightly over a week. That simply doesn't happen to me. I mean, I may lose, but when my hit rate drops by 20 points over 150-200 races , I know that something isn't right. It just doesn't "feel right."
I think that the logical question to ask when facing a protracted losing streak is, "Is my approach still valid today?"
If you're playing 10-20 races a week, you won't know for 2 months.
BTW, my experience in the "Age of Whales" is that it never changes back.
Dave