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Old 07-12-2018, 09:53 PM   #106
v j stauffer
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Originally Posted by groupie doll View Post
Hm. I was looking forward to expanding my knowledge base via a response... looks like that may not happen.
I'm not quite sure what you're looking for. Your previous post implies you can lose focus when on a losing streak. And that re-grouping at a later date when you gain clarity works for you.

I think that's terrific and you should follow your heart.

The genesis of this thread was busting out of a slump and practices and protocols of how to handle it.

With due respect it's about horse playing philosophy not life psychology.
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Old 07-12-2018, 09:56 PM   #107
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If you know how to leverage correctly the cost should not be a problem.

While you might not see a reason others might see a reason. It doesn't fit your style so it is perfectly logical that you would avoid the "complication". Can I assume by your "exorbitant price" comment that you have not done any research into the risk-reward of leveraging? Personally I never implemented betting strategies based on feelings or assumptions.

Grinding out win bets is not the only way to play the races successfully. Especially today when you have no idea what the odds will be until after the race has run.
We all must do what works best for us. I'm not that smart so any chance at simplicity is welcomed.
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Old 07-13-2018, 08:22 PM   #108
Robert Fischer
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win vs exotics and value

Looked over this year's plays, and I'm surprised to see how poorly my exactas are performing. Awful. Loss.

Win and Double wagers are doing about as well as I can hope for, with no real outliers. Doubles are obviously more complex than win, but I happen to use them to attack pretty much the same angles, depending on how they suit the situation.

P3's are pretty bad other than stakes days, and I had an outlier score in that situation making a poor everyday wager for me look better than it has been.

Most of my trifectas are doing terrible, with the majority of hits coming within a certain angle. Going to focus only on that angle with my trifectas for a while.

Superfectas were surprisingly bad. I don't play a ton of superfectas, but I think the 30cents I had on the Belmont Super (Just/Gronk/?/Vino) was my ONLY hit of the year. That actually put me up maybe $10 for the year total on the wager's stats, but it shows me that I actually suck at superfectas.


Pick-6? comical, I've only played 3 of them. Couple were lotto style totaling $2.20, and the 3rd P6 was a $537.00 investment that won and paid $41.04! (Preakness day chalk fest to axman and Justify...). I had better stick to extending my doubles into Pick-3s before leapfrogging into the Pick-6 pools...
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Old 07-13-2018, 10:26 PM   #109
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Originally Posted by v j stauffer View Post
With due respect it's about horse playing philosophy not life psychology.
What he said!

I'm usually very consistent such that losing weeks are rare. (Playing a large number of races helps that consistency.)

My experience is that when I show a net loss over a week or more it is usually because something has changed in the game that has a direct impact on how my system works.

That causes me to to question whether or not my approach is still working as it did. (So, I stopped playing.)

Such was the case this year. I experienced some early losers and stepped back to verify how well my own approach was working. The answer was, that it wasn't.

Interestingly, the individual factor/object hit rates had not changed very much - not much more than the normal downward slide of return for the better horses.

But something has changed this year.

Whales retool in the winter and, assuming it works out (for them), the game may see a change during February.

Such appears to be the case this year. I've found that my winners are being bet down more than ever relative to my projected odds. This just killed my profitability.

Fortunately, I pulled the plug very early on.

So, I've spent the last 4 months working on retooling my own system. It is finally coming together, but not without some very drastic changes to my game.

About the original poster's question...
I think most players do not expect to win long term and so the definition is really not about a "losing streak" as much as it is "getting slaughtered."

For the record, that is what happened to me: I got slaughtered for slightly over a week. That simply doesn't happen to me. I mean, I may lose, but when my hit rate drops by 20 points over 150-200 races , I know that something isn't right. It just doesn't "feel right."

I think that the logical question to ask when facing a protracted losing streak is, "Is my approach still valid today?"

If you're playing 10-20 races a week, you won't know for 2 months.

BTW, my experience in the "Age of Whales" is that it never changes back.


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Old 07-14-2018, 08:14 AM   #110
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I have seen my results degrade seasonally for the last 5 or 6 years at least. The first quarter has been very strong and the second quarter has had negative returns.

I don't see that it would be the whales retooling if it happens year after year. It could be something seasonal that goes completely over my head or the selection of tracks available.

When I haven't cashed a decent winner in a month I certainly play on fewer days and it doesn't take much for me to lose interest early in the day.

Having faith in what I am doing and enjoying the time spent all I can do is hang in there and wait for things to turn around. It is certainly more fun when it is going well.
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Old 07-14-2018, 09:43 AM   #111
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I have seen my results degrade seasonally for the last 5 or 6 years at least. The first quarter has been very strong and the second quarter has had negative returns.

I don't see that it would be the whales retooling if it happens year after year. It could be something seasonal that goes completely over my head or the selection of tracks available.

When I haven't cashed a decent winner in a month I certainly play on fewer days and it doesn't take much for me to lose interest early in the day.

Having faith in what I am doing and enjoying the time spent all I can do is hang in there and wait for things to turn around. It is certainly more fun when it is going well.
sjk,could more turf racing in that period have anything to do with it?
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Old 07-14-2018, 09:48 AM   #112
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Originally Posted by v j stauffer View Post

With due respect it's about horse playing philosophy not life psychology.
The two are intertwined, as with most other things in life... imho.
Fair enough though, thanks. If we disagree on that general conceptualization, then I can see why you didn't respond previously.
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Old 07-14-2018, 09:57 AM   #113
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I have always passed on turf races since I have never tried to understand them. That definitely makes the playable races fewer and farther between during the warmer months and makes the down cycles drag out over time.
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Old 07-27-2018, 01:56 AM   #114
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This is an interesting thread. I'm a small player; I play mostly weekends except the summer, and I started playing in 2010. I've had more losing years than winning ones. A couple of my losing years would have been winning ones if takeout was closer to 12% than 20+%. I play exactas and dime supers, with win bets if I'm using contenders on those tickets at a nice price.

I don't bet much per year. The most I pushed through the tote in a year was $7K, which I know some of you guys do in a day (or race) easily. I still take handicapping and ticket construction very seriously. My contender selection has gotten better with a couple of Dave Schwartz's seminars that I've bought, and I've been able to tighten up my game a bit after I could see how I was doing in that regard. I still revisit those tools.

Here's the thing: in the the years that I've been profitable, including this year so far ($1 ROI of +0.38) it has always been a handful of good scores that account for a fairly large percentage of my winnings. I've had long droughts playing superfectas, but I still play them because even though they are typically low-strike bets for me, they tend to be high ROI bets for me. I seldom think much about losing streaks.

I'll just throw this out: are any of you less concerned about losing streaks, because you tend to make most of your profits annually on a handful of good scores? Does anyone here grind daily, making small collective gains, and end up having a good year?
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