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Old 07-12-2018, 04:11 AM   #76
VigorsTheGrey
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Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
If all you can manage is a $100 bankroll to start with, then you must initially satisfy yourself with the meager profits that such a bankroll can generate. The only universal truth that I have ever discovered in this game is this: "If you can't win with a $100 bankroll...then you won't be able to win with a $10,000 bankroll either". Start with a small bankroll, and see if you can grow it over time...while paying for your racetrack expenses out of your other pocket. And the betting unit grows in accordance with the growing bankroll. Yes, growing the bankroll in such a manner will be a slow endeavor which will grate on your nerves. But the process will infuse you with a sense of confidence which will be INDISPENSABLE when those inescapable losing streaks come around. The player has to EARN the right to make large wagers...IMO.
I see the truth of it...thank you Thaskalos.
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Old 07-12-2018, 10:13 AM   #77
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What I meant by that is I don't believe in shutting down the search for good bets. Just walking away.

One never knows, sometimes literally until a few minutes before post, when a must play will present itself.

A bet made three days after a bad run or three months after is still only the next bet you're making. It's either proper and excellent or it's not.

The horses and the situation have no idea when your last bet was.
Can you expound on the bolded? Not sure quite what you mean by that...and you've said it twice now, so it must be important.
The break (if I take one) clears my psyche... and it does work for me.
Regarding this: A bet made three days after a bad run or three months after is still only the next bet you're making. It's either proper and excellent or it's not.

When I take a break in a "slump"... my next bet is more typically proper (and possibly excellent) vs. not. That's why I take the break to begin with. It's akin to mediating when you feel your mind is cluttered and busy and I usually have more clarity and focus post-break. And by break I mean anything from a couple of days to a couple of weeks. My breaks usually don't go much longer than that unless I'm away, swamped at work with no time, dealing with some unexpected family issue, etc.
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Old 07-12-2018, 10:25 AM   #78
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Last few posts by Vic & Thaskalos should be framed and mounted on every player's wall.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with starting small. In fact, it's absolutely required. In fact, you shouldn't even start out betting real money.

When first starting out in this game, it should be paper bets only.

You need to be brutally honest with yourself if you want to play this game with any seriousness. And that means knowing that you are a loser, until you are not.

And you don't want to be betting real money when you are a loser.
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Old 07-12-2018, 01:07 PM   #79
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Winners don't go through slumps. Very rarely. You have to go by memory to think about a real slump.

It's not a slump if you lose 10, 15 in a row. All you can do is wait for the next fastball to come down the middle of your happy zone, and put a good swing on the ball. Sometimes the ball moves, or you foul it off, or you get caught. Doesn't matter. You know over the season that you will get your 30 homeruns, and your 30 doubles, maybe more.

A slump is when you aren't seeing the ball. You are making bad bets. Burning through a bankroll in a matter of days. Trying to get it all back in one play. Losing it all again in the process. Extrapolating on a long shot opinion until you are betting a mirage. Dead broke and you are making mind bets and losing incentive to keep putting in the daily work. Playing for action where you throw a few bucks on your house number or birthday just to have something going...

When you put all that behind you, it seems foreign to take a break. You know eventually you will get another fastball down the middle of your happy zone. When your game hasn't matured to that stage, you need to stop at the first sign of falling apart, take a break, come back renewed with a simplistic approach.

The $2 win game is a good learning process. If you are a competent player and you are selective with passing most races and betting your best opinions, you can last quite a while. Good way to develop discipline and patience.
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Old 07-12-2018, 01:29 PM   #80
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Originally Posted by Robert Fischer View Post
Winners don't go through slumps. Very rarely. You have to go by memory to think about a real slump.

It's not a slump if you lose 10, 15 in a row. All you can do is wait for the next fastball to come down the middle of your happy zone, and put a good swing on the ball. Sometimes the ball moves, or you foul it off, or you get caught. Doesn't matter. You know over the season that you will get your 30 homeruns, and your 30 doubles, maybe more.

A slump is when you aren't seeing the ball. You are making bad bets. Burning through a bankroll in a matter of days. Trying to get it all back in one play. Losing it all again in the process. Extrapolating on a long shot opinion until you are betting a mirage. Dead broke and you are making mind bets and losing incentive to keep putting in the daily work. Playing for action where you throw a few bucks on your house number or birthday just to have something going...

When you put all that behind you, it seems foreign to take a break. You know eventually you will get another fastball down the middle of your happy zone. When your game hasn't matured to that stage, you need to stop at the first sign of falling apart, take a break, come back renewed with a simplistic approach.

The $2 win game is a good learning process. If you are a competent player and you are selective with passing most races and betting your best opinions, you can last quite a while. Good way to develop discipline and patience.
Realistic interpretation of what a slump looks like, destruction of bankroll by going on tilt in a relative short amount of time is the end result.

Always remember that variance is a normal part of the game, never to be confused with being in a slump, which RF addressed in first 2 paragraphs of his post.



Good opinion, RF....
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Old 07-12-2018, 04:02 PM   #81
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Handicapping is part of it. But not the be all end all. If you feel you're seeing value with a singular horse there's nothing wrong with living in the win pool and never considering anything else.

It's the cheapest bet there is. It helps you avoid long losing streaks. And it can allow you to stick with a standard bet amount which should NEVER be more than 4% of your overall bankroll.

It's impossible to go broke making a profit.
For most players, the win pool is highly underrated. You can't make the big lifechanging score, but the takeout is usually lower and the variance is far lower.

Indeed, I disagree with that portion of Robert Fischer's post. If you play a lot of exotics, you could very well "slump" for months, because the model is long draughts punctuated by occasional huge scores.

Most players have no idea how to bet for value in the exotics anyway. You have to focus on combinations likely to be overlays.
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Old 07-12-2018, 04:06 PM   #82
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Do the .300 hitters in baseball maintain this average during all the months of the season...or does their average fluctuate (sometimes wildly) from month to month? The concept of "averaging" is an artificial construct, created so we can make more sense of the world in which we live. We put 100 people in a room, and we say that the "average income" of the gathered crowd is $60,000 a year. And then we look closer...and we discover that NO ONE in the group makes exactly $60,000.

Likewise...the horseplayer says that his long-term winning "average" is 30%. But he forgets that this means he will score at a 15% rate during some stretches...and at a 45% clip during others. The only sure thing to be said about the world of gambling/investing, is that things will FLUCTUATE.
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Old 07-12-2018, 04:12 PM   #83
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For most players, the win pool is highly underrated. You can't make the big lifechanging score, but the takeout is usually lower and the variance is far lower.

Indeed, I disagree with that portion of Robert Fischer's post. If you play a lot of exotics, you could very well "slump" for months, because the model is long draughts punctuated by occasional huge scores.

Most players have no idea how to bet for value in the exotics anyway. You have to focus on combinations likely to be overlays.
IMO...the exotics wagers are as popular as they are NOT because the betting crowd is in search of the "life-changing score"...but because most horseplayers lack the knowledge/conviction that it takes to reduce one's betting opinion to a single horse. People bet the exotics because that's where they find the "safety" that they think their lack of knowledge/conviction requires. If all the bettors were somehow forced to make only win-bets...then they would pass on at least 50% of the races that they normally bet on.
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Old 07-12-2018, 04:21 PM   #84
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Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
For most players, the win pool is highly underrated. You can't make the big lifechanging score, but the takeout is usually lower and the variance is far lower.

Indeed, I disagree with that portion of Robert Fischer's post. If you play a lot of exotics, you could very well "slump" for months, because the model is long draughts punctuated by occasional huge scores.

Most players have no idea how to bet for value in the exotics anyway. You have to focus on combinations likely to be overlays.

The thread topic is "Busting out of a Slump at the windows. What do you do to bust out of it?


Playing exotics for long-term profitability has a higher variance of volatility than any straight pool variance, especially pick-5-6 players. A player does not "slump" for months in this endeavor, it's simple variance of a low strike rate, and your use of "slump" doesn't answer the thread topic question anyway.....Alas, you are always entitled to your opinion, even if it's way off base.

Just stick to poker, where you actually have expertise, will ya Dilan?
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Old 07-12-2018, 04:43 PM   #85
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The thread topic is "Busting out of a Slump at the windows. What do you do to bust out of it?


Playing exotics for long-term profitability has a higher variance of volatility than any straight pool variance, especially pick-5-6 players. A player does not "slump" for months in this endeavor, it's simple variance of a low strike rate, and your use of "slump" doesn't answer the thread topic question anyway.....Alas, you are always entitled to your opinion, even if it's way off base.

Just stick to poker, where you actually have expertise, will ya Dilan?
I think you are just using a very ideosyncratic definition of "slump" and then gratuitously insulting me for using the more common definition.

Heck, I even put "slump" in quotation marks.

Last edited by dilanesp; 07-12-2018 at 04:45 PM.
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Old 07-12-2018, 04:46 PM   #86
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I think you are just using a very ideosyncratic definition of "slump" and then gratuitously insulting me for using the more common definition.

Heck, I even put "slump" in quotation marks.

Crushing reply Sport, as usual....Heck, you just don't know.

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Old 07-12-2018, 04:47 PM   #87
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IMO...the exotics wagers are as popular as they are NOT because the betting crowd is in search of the "life-changing score"...but because most horseplayers lack the knowledge/conviction that it takes to reduce one's betting opinion to a single horse. People bet the exotics because that's where they find the "safety" that they think their lack of knowledge/conviction requires. If all the bettors were somehow forced to make only win-bets...then they would pass on at least 50% of the races that they normally bet on.
That "safety" blanket might be made of silk because it's very expensive.
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Old 07-12-2018, 04:48 PM   #88
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I like this entire post.

Totally agree with the final sentence. That's why at 4% it's probably best to stay in the win pool.

As to sizing you're 100% correct. IT IS NOT a small bet at all.
I agree, if there is one thing I've learned through this and previously playing poker is that you have to learn how to keep your bet amount lower in relation to your bankroll than you think. Especially with this game you're often going to go on longer losing streaks so even $5 bets with a $100 bankroll you'll soon start getting nervous.

What I found was say increasing to $500 bankroll but keeping your bets the same amount allows more freedom so you aren't suddenly getting nervous when you're down $75
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Old 07-12-2018, 04:50 PM   #89
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IMO...the exotics wagers are as popular as they are NOT because the betting crowd is in search of the "life-changing score"...but because most horseplayers lack the knowledge/conviction that it takes to reduce one's betting opinion to a single horse. People bet the exotics because that's where they find the "safety" that they think their lack of knowledge/conviction requires. If all the bettors were somehow forced to make only win-bets...then they would pass on at least 50% of the races that they normally bet on.
Has little to do with lack of knowledge/conviction. It's more like not wanting to wait 30 minutes between races to bet $10 on a 2-1 horse to win. Call it the excitement factor.

If a bettor is skilled/lucky enough to find an overlay they should look to exotics to get maximum leverage.
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Old 07-12-2018, 05:05 PM   #90
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Has little to do with lack of knowledge/conviction. It's more like not wanting to wait 30 minutes between races to bet $10 on a 2-1 horse to win. Call it the excitement factor.

If a bettor is skilled/lucky enough to find an overlay they should look to exotics to get maximum leverage.
I think you are wrong. There have been many cases here when a poster will start a thread by asking the group to handicap a particular race in advance. Whenever this happens...the majority of the responders will offer an exacta or a trifecta combination as their selection...instead of a win-bet. Is this because of the "excitement factor" too?
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