Case for Noble Indy in the Belmont... - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

letswastemoney · 05-31-2018, 09:44 AM

I'm still working out my thoughts on him. But here are some positives...

- Few people believe he has a chance to win. He should be 30-1 or higher?

- If Justify doesn't like the distance, or pulls a Big Brown for any other reason...Noble Indy will be on the lead and in Da' Tara's spot in 2008.

- Already proven to handle a fast pace, although against lesser competition in the Louisiana Derby (the race did includ Bravazo).

Not sure how Winstar would feel in the winner's circle if it happened. I can't eliminate Noble Indy though, and because Repole is the majority owner, I assume they will really try to win this.

clicknow · 05-31-2018, 02:23 PM

is certainly more than "the rabbit" that some have designated him as. However he's a little light in stamina on the Dam side, but strong on sire side. I was also thinking of using him in a few exotics since he won't lose connection to the field, just not sure if he will make it around that 2nd turn or not and still be forwardly placed. I'm a big Tenfold fan so not sure where I can "fit" Noble Indy.

f2tornado · 05-31-2018, 02:27 PM

The raw clock, Brisnet pace figs, and Timeform figs from his Louisiana Derby suggest he could lead he pack for a mile or more. He's basically the Good Magic of the race should he fire like he did at Fairgrounds. If the closers don't close and Justify falls off then he could be there. A lot of what ifs but not a terrible play for the price. My main concern with him is his final 3/8th in Louisiana was pretty slow. The fast final fractions angle discussed here for the Kentucky Derby has historically worked well in the Belmont as well. As such, I prefer Vino Rosso, Hofburg, and perhaps Tenfold more for any possible upset.

clicknow · 05-31-2018, 03:15 PM

There are also certainly horses who have never won a stakes race who have won the BELMONT, i.e. Hofburg, Restoring Hope, Tenfold.

LemonSoupKid · 05-31-2018, 06:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by f2tornado

The raw clock, Brisnet pace figs, and Timeform figs from his Louisiana Derby suggest he could lead he pack for a mile or more. He's basically the Good Magic of the race should he fire like he did at Fairgrounds. If the closers don't close and Justify falls off then he could be there. A lot of what ifs but not a terrible play for the price. My main concern with him is his final 3/8th in Louisiana was pretty slow. The fast final fractions angle discussed here for the Kentucky Derby has historically worked well in the Belmont as well. As such, I prefer Vino Rosso, Hofburg, and perhaps Tenfold more for any possible upset.

Speaking of that, do we have final 3/8 and quarters for these runners (KY Derby and/or Preakness)?

Spalding No! · 05-31-2018, 07:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by clicknow

is certainly more than "the rabbit" that some have designated him as. However he's a little light in stamina on the Dam side, but strong on sire side. I was also thinking of using him in a few exotics since he won't lose connection to the field, just not sure if he will make it around that 2nd turn or not and still be forwardly placed. I'm a big Tenfold fan so not sure where I can "fit" Noble Indy.

There's quite a bit of stamina deep in the pedigree:

Noble Indy's 5th dam is Impetuous Lady. The great Canadian breeder EP Taylor, who produced Northern Dancer, got two stamina-laden fillies from her named Regal Gal and Impetuous Gal, both of whom won 10 furlong stakes.

The former produced 10-12 furlong horse Holy Mountain as well as the good Stronach mare Relaxing Rhthym, who in turn produced recent route horses Spring Waltz and Winning Rhythm.

The latter produced the outstanding racemare Banker's Lady (won up to 10f), who herself produced Peter Pan winner Banker's Gold. Another daughter produced recent Grade 1 router Daisy Devine and still another produced Ecton Park who won both the Super Derby (G1, 10f) and the Jim Dandy.

PowerUpPaynter · 05-31-2018, 09:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by f2tornado

The raw clock, Brisnet pace figs, and Timeform figs from his Louisiana Derby suggest he could lead he pack for a mile or more. He's basically the Good Magic of the race should he fire like he did at Fairgrounds. If the closers don't close and Justify falls off then he could be there. A lot of what ifs but not a terrible play for the price. My main concern with him is his final 3/8th in Louisiana was pretty slow. The fast final fractions angle discussed here for the Kentucky Derby has historically worked well in the Belmont as well. As such, I prefer Vino Rosso, Hofburg, and perhaps Tenfold more for any possible upset.

Noble Indy was right on a blazing fast pace and still has enough to hold on. It was a similar performance to Battle Of Midway in the Santa Anita Derby but better cause he won.

Fightingirish51195 · 06-01-2018, 01:51 PM

Not only did noble Indy survive fast fractions, the horse completely ran against it that day. Noble Indy’s last race is a throw away for me. I think this horse has a big chance

clicknow · 06-01-2018, 01:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

Noble Indy was right on a blazing fast pace and still has enough to hold on. It was a similar performance to Battle Of Midway in the Santa Anita Derby but better cause he won.

Well if Restoring Hope is Baffert's answer to Noble Indy i.e. to keep NI busy so Justify doesn't have to, then who knows what will happen to either of them.

jocko699 · 06-01-2018, 02:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fightingirish51195

Not only did noble Indy survive fast fractions, the horse completely ran against it that day. Noble Indy’s last race is a throw away for me. I think this horse has a big chance

Than again it was the La Derby so...……………………………….

papillon · 06-01-2018, 03:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by f2tornado

The raw clock, Brisnet pace figs, and Timeform figs from his Louisiana Derby suggest he could lead he pack for a mile or more. He's basically the Good Magic of the race should he fire like he did at Fairgrounds. If the closers don't close and Justify falls off then he could be there. A lot of what ifs but not a terrible play for the price. My main concern with him is his final 3/8th in Louisiana was pretty slow. The fast final fractions angle discussed here for the Kentucky Derby has historically worked well in the Belmont as well. As such, I prefer Vino Rosso, Hofburg, and perhaps Tenfold more for any possible upset.

I liked him for the derby to be honest. Way back, I made a post about how I mapped out where, in an ideal scenario, all of the horses would be in the Derby between 6f and 9f, and had him and Mendelssohn together on the front. The irony is that they ran right beside each other for almost the entire Derby and finished 18th and 20th. I got their parity right at least

Anywho, he fits the Belmont pretty well. He, Vino Rosso, Restoring Hope, and Hofburg are the horses that have shown the ability consistently to run flat pace lines. His pedigree isn't as strong as Restoring Hope's, whose is insane, Vino Rosso's, whose is great, or Hofburg's, whose is very good, but it's no worse than Justify's.

Horses on the front do pretty well in the Belmont, counterintuitively. If he was running in Windstar silks I'd have greater reservations, but he's running in Repole silks, and Repole wants to win, probablly more so with Vino Rosso, than with Noble Indy, but not by a ridiculous amount, and a 1-2 finish would make his year.

letswastemoney · 06-01-2018, 04:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jocko699

Than again it was the La Derby so...……………………………….

Louisiana Derby looking better as time goes on! My Boy Jack 5th in the Derby, and Bravazo 6th in the Derby and 2nd in Preakness.

Even Lone Sailor almost caught up with the leading group in the Preakness. Only lost by 2 lengths or so.

jocko699 · 06-01-2018, 04:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Louisiana Derby looking better as time goes on! My Boy Jack 5th in the Derby, and Bravazo 6th in the Derby and 2nd in Preakness.

Even Lone Sailor almost caught up with the leading group in the Preakness. Only lost by 2 lengths or so.

MBJ was ridden bad in the LD, otherwise he wins the race. NI, LS benefitted from that bad ride. Bravazo had absolutely no excuse in the Preakness and raced as well as he ever will in the company of Justify. None will beat Justify next week unless as I stated early he breaks from Aqueduct.

Fightingirish51195 · 06-02-2018, 08:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by clicknow

Well if Restoring Hope is Baffert's answer to Noble Indy i.e. to keep NI busy so Justify doesn't have to, then who knows what will happen to either of them.

Will have to see post positions. Noble Indy does not need the lead to win. However you don’t really want to let justify go because then your playing with Fire.

Ribot Roboto · 06-03-2018, 09:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by clicknow

Well if Restoring Hope is Baffert's answer to Noble Indy i.e. to keep NI busy so Justify doesn't have to, then who knows what will happen to either of them.

What is Justify going to be doing while those two keep each other busy? Or do they engage behind him?