and it onto the Preakness...

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

Ok, just wondering, as I'm thinking of playing a Justify with Good Magic exacta box, in case Good Magic wins.......I don't see any other horse in the Preakness that can beat Justify IMO.

Here is my logic.

If Justify loses its likely because he is not himself in some way, the foot, the quick turn around, maybe some jockey games, who knows....so something goes really wrong and he does not run well, if that happens the projection should be he runs out.

So I would play Good Magic over others in both exact and trifectas without justify in second.

If they both run their races, well we have seen that right?

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Here is my logic.

If Justify loses its likely because he is not himself in some way, the foot, the quick turn around, maybe some jockey games, who knows....so something goes really wrong and he does not run well, if that happens the projection should be he runs out.

So I would play Good Magic over others in both exact and trifectas without justify in second.

If they both run their races, well we have seen that right?

I don't see Justify running out even if he runs with only 3 legs.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Good Magic runs out of the money... Thats how you gotta play the tri. Better chance of that than Justify losing...

[jocko699]

I think there is no angle to money in the Preakness. Justify is in another league than all of them and to gamble against that seems like an unlikely return statistically speaking.

It's like trying to squeeze blood out of a dried-up vein.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by jocko699

I think there is no angle to money in the Preakness. Justify is in another league than all of them and to gamble against that seems like an unlikely return statistically speaking.

It's like trying to squeeze blood out of a dried-up vein.

I agree... think 1/2 is out of the question?

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by jocko699

I think there is no angle to money in the Preakness. Justify is in another league than all of them and to gamble against that seems like an unlikely return statistically speaking.

It's like trying to squeeze blood out of a dried-up vein.

I have the PP's up for Always Dreaming, and while Justify has a little bit better figures career wise its eerie how similar they look on paper, right down to setting a fast pace and winning in the slop in the Derby.

[jocko699]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

I have the PP's up for Always Dreaming, and while Justify has a little bit better figures career wise its eerie how similar they look on paper, right down to setting a fast pace and winning in the slop in the Derby.

I think 1/2 is about right although he may go at 3/5.

The biggest difference INM with Always Dreaming was heart. He got extremely lucky in the KD and his true class was glaring in the Preakness.

Justify has not only heart but his class is off the chart. If he is eyeballed at anytime off the turn he is going to bury his opposition.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by jocko699

I think 1/2 is about right although he may go at 3/5.

The biggest difference INM with Always Dreaming was heart. He got extremely lucky in the KD and his true class was glaring in the Preakness.

Justify has not only heart but his class is off the chart. If he is eyeballed at anytime off the turn he is going to bury his opposition.

We will see, Always Dreaming set a pretty fast pace, the big difference is he wasnt really pressured where Justify did all the dirt work and still won.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

We will see, Always Dreaming set a pretty fast pace, the big difference is he wasnt really pressured where Justify did all the dirt work and still won.

Always Dreaming dueled with State of Honor and then was hounded by Battle of Midway and Irish War Cry into the far turn.

It was eerily reminiscent of this year's Derby, where Justify locked horns with Promises Fulfilled who--like State of Honor--folded like a cheap suit, while Bolt D'Oro and Good Magic took up the chase into the far turn.

There are still question marks surrounding Justify beyond the post race chatter about his hind end issue. 2 of his 3 main rivals (BDO and GM, the other being Audible) were curiously placed way to close to what figured to be a fast pace. In addition, 2 of his potential pace rivals, Magnum Moon and Mendelssohn, failed to materialize after botching the break. Putting away Promises Fulfilled, who also caved in his final Derby prep, can't be considered "dirty work" in this instance, and the poor choice of early position from BDO and GM hurt their chances more than it hurt Justify's.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Always Dreaming dueled with State of Honor and then was hounded by Battle of Midway and Irish War Cry into the far turn.

It was eerily reminiscent of this year's Derby, where Justify locked horns with Promises Fulfilled who--like State of Honor--folded like a cheap suit, while Bolt D'Oro and Good Magic took up the chase into the far turn.

There are still question marks surrounding Justify beyond the post race chatter about his hind end issue. 2 of his 3 main rivals (BDO and GM, the other being Audible) were curiously placed way to close to what figured to be a fast pace. In addition, 2 of his potential pace rivals, Magnum Moon and Mendelssohn, failed to materialize after botching the break. Putting away Promises Fulfilled, who also caved in his final Derby prep, can't be considered "dirty work" in this instance, and the poor choice of early position from BDO and GM hurt their chances more than it hurt Justify's.

who is doing that in this race, the same owned Quip? Diamond King, who is way to slow to go with Justify?

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

who is doing that in this race, the same owned Quip? Diamond King, who is way to slow to go with Justify?

I was mainly commenting on the comparison b/w the 2017 and 2018 Derbies, as you had Always Dreaming as being unpressured, which was not the case.

Nevertheless, I forgot to put in my centerpiece argument: everything I said questioning Justify was moot because the Preakness field is a joke as a whole.

However, positioning is going to be important. I would not want to be anywhere near Sporting Chance, especially to his outside.

As for Diamond King, I'm curious as to what sorts of pace figures he earned in his sprint races. I'm sure since they were training him to stretch out for the Tesio they weren't looking to gun him early, but that doesn't mean he doesn't have some early gas.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Promises Fulfilled who--like State of Honor--folded like a cheap suit

PF was in the Derby because of points, not because he can run 1-1/4 miles. However, I just love that horse, I could watch him run all day. He is graceful and so very light on his feet---twinkle-toes. He is not a warrior, he's a ballerina.

If you are at all an admirer of thoroughbreds and just watching them run out of sheer joy, I think it's hard not to appreciate Promises Fulfilled as "more than a rabbit."

He was just in the wrong race, and we all knew that beforehand.

[f2tornado]

Justify: Baffert/Smith

Good Magic: Brown/J. Ortiz

Bravazo: Lukas/Contreras?

Lone Sailor: Amoss/I. Ortiz

Quip: Brisset/Geroux

Sporting Chance: Lukas/Contreras?

Tenfold: Asmussen/Santana

Diamond King: Servis/Castellano

Not quite the official field but this is it at this point. Forecast calls for rain all week. The top two will be tough beats. Quip is fresh has a style that is suitable for the race. Diamond King is the local with JC up and might appreciate the distance. That's one I'll use to potentially spice up the gimmicks. Lone Sailor and Bravazo could be good enough for a minor award. Sporting Chance and Tenfold might be in over head.

Not going to get paid much this race but I'll take a few swings.
Exacta: No use boxing the chalk. If I play it I will dump one of the favorites.
Trifecta: Justify/Good Magic/Diamond King, Lone Sailor, Quip
A smaller saver play flipping the top two and another flipping the place and show.
Superfecta: Same plays using the show horses in fourth spot.
Hi5: Will take a small swing if it is available again.
Black-Eyed Susan/Preakness Double: I'll need to scout the BES but this wager has occasionally paid well in spite of chalk on one end.

[PhantomOnTour]

Only value is finding an exotics bomb to hit the ex or tri.
Tenfold may be the one for Asmussen

[Mc990]

I'm curious to see the draw but I have to envision Good Magic getting a similar trip to last year's winner...

It's not like Justify has a huge margin for error over GM. An overconfident ride could be all it takes to close the 2 length gap from the Derby.

I also think there is big improvement coming soon for GM.... hopefully the narrative that the Derby was some kind of new lifetime best will continue to be told. He's still got room to move off that race.