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07-10-2018, 08:22 PM
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#181
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by f2tornado
Depends on how you define large sample and what time scale you want. Trainer Jason Servis has won 33% of his 204 starts this year. Owner Maggi Moss won 34% of 106 starts this year. Pat Day had a couple years where he hit 30%. Jerry Bailey piloted 33% of his 166 graded stakes mounts to victory in 2003. While the above examples contain far less plays, they produced the same percent of wins and probably a higher ROI.
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Large sample > than 20,000 races
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07-10-2018, 08:45 PM
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#182
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,871
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
Can you provide another handicapping factor that produces 33% winners over a large large sample?
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Using any speed figure, last race, and especial BRIS figs, is just not real world.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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07-20-2018, 04:51 AM
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#183
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 3,641
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So Bolt d' Oro is going to Asmussen. So is Union Strike.
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07-28-2018, 02:48 PM
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#184
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 3,053
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Quote:
Originally Posted by clicknow
So Bolt d' Oro is going to Asmussen. So is Union Strike.
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Although not in terms of speed figures, Take The One O One out west continues to bolster what many thought was dubious form from Bolt D'Oro's otherworldly-rated Frontrunner effort (Take The One O One was a distant 3rd).
He's shown versatility, taking quick sprints and stretching out to 9 furlongs. He's won stakes (albeit Cal-bred) on both dirt and turf as well.
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07-29-2018, 07:46 PM
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#185
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
Large sample > than 20,000 races
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I didn't see this back when GMB posted it, but I can't like it enough.
One thing poker taught me is how large a sample you really need with statistics and gambling. Many, many of the things people take for granted are actually based on statistically insignificant sample sizes.
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07-30-2018, 09:11 AM
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#186
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,613
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
Many, many of the things people take for granted are actually based on statistically insignificant sample sizes.
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Yep. One random series of winners can make an impression on you that will last a decade even though it's wrong.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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07-30-2018, 12:59 PM
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#187
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
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Actually, even more important than sample size is having a truly representative random sample. One can do a good valid study with a sample as small as about 50 subjects providing it is representative of the population and the appropriate statistical method is used. Any good stats text also has different tables for doing studies with small samples. Unfortunately most people without advanced statistical training don't know this and are overly impressed by large sample sizes alone.
Last edited by bobphilo; 07-30-2018 at 01:03 PM.
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07-30-2018, 02:05 PM
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#188
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,626
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Last two posts make excellent points. It's easy to get tunnel vision. I've lost some money and left money on the table doing this. It's also easy to misinterpret statistics to fit just about any preconceived notion. Call it LoneF syndrome if you'd like but I'm sure most players have been there to some extent.
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08-02-2018, 02:18 PM
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#189
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 151
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rabrown36
Who has Bolt d'Oro ever beat? He beat Zatter who hasn't run this year. Run Away who is alright, but lost to Greyvitos who went to Keeneland and got buzzed by MyBoyJack. He beat Solomini who later returned the favor in the Breeders Cup. Both Cali horses got buzzed by east coaster Good Magic.
Bolt d'Oro then loses to McKinzie, who lost to Solomini. Solomini ships to Oaklawn and gets smashed by Magnum Moon twice.
Kanthanka who comes third to Bolt and McKinzie goes to the blue grass and comes 6th to Good Magic.
Brings me to Justify. He beat camby and paddock pick both still maidens. Then in his 2nd start in the mud he beat Shivermetimbers who is not much. So his claim to fame is beating Bold d'Oro , but my question is why is that such a big deal?
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This post is a good example of someone who doesn't respect WEST COAST racing.
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