To all those who say you can't win using speed & pace figures only...

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by rsetup

Just for verification purposes do a search and see how many times you've mentioned Green Grotto in threads other than the original one. Thinks it's more than zero?

I don't buy the rest of your argument. Figures dominate the game and any exchange about it.

Handicapping factors are cyclical in my opinion. You keep tossing out the esoteric capper view of the game from 90's handicapping books as though it were still today's truth. Get a new argument punk!

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by rsetup

Just for verification purposes do a search and see how many times you've mentioned Green Grotto in threads other than the original one. Thinks it's more than zero?

I don't buy the rest of your argument. Figures dominate the game and any exchange about it.

Green Gratto is worth bragging about.

My only argument is that if you have a set of good numbers and find out how best to use them, you don't need anything else. Contrary to what a lot of people think out there - that you need to know almost everything -- ie. you need to consider possibly less than ethical trainers...less than ethical jockeys...medication...trips...trainer/owner intent...you name it, there are tons of information points out there that many people think are necessary to consider besides the numbers, in order to win.

I didn't say figures DON'T dominate the game. They do. I don't know why you keep trying to push this on me. That's not the point.

The point is to not believe the people who say if you ONLY use figures, you'll never be successful at making a profit.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Green Gratto is worth bragging about.

My only argument is that if you have a set of good numbers and find out how best to use them, you don't need anything else. Contrary to what a lot of people think out there - that you need to know almost everything -- ie. you need to consider possibly less than ethical trainers...less than ethical jockeys...medication...trips...trainer/owner intent...you name it, there are tons of information points out there that many people think are necessary to consider besides the numbers, in order to win.

I didn't say figures DON'T dominate the game. They do. I don't know why you keep trying to push this on me. That's not the point.

The point is to not believe the people who say if you ONLY use figures, you'll never be successful at making a profit.

You've managed to show a profit after about 400 selections, by relying only on speed and pace figures. My guess is that you'll NEVER see a similar handicapping exhibition staged by a "visual handicapper"...who relies on replays for his selections. Therefore...you've won your argument...IMO.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Green Gratto is worth bragging about.

Even when considered an "overlay" at odds of 2-1?

As I said in a prior thread...I am impressed with your "selection method"...but your odds-line needs some adjustment, IMO. When your betting line lists Green Gratto at 7-5, and the pre-Derby Always Dreaming at 22-1...then something is amiss.

[ReplayRandall]

PA, give us a simple version of how you came up with Always Dreaming at 22-1 on your value line.....

[rsetup]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

You've managed to show a profit after about 400 selections, by relying only on speed and pace figures. My guess is that you'll NEVER see a similar handicapping exhibition staged by a "visual handicapper"...who relies on replays for his selections. Therefore...you've won your argument...IMO.

Isn't DaHoss a 'visual handicapper' more than anything else? Hasn't he had runs with significantly higher ROI?

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by rsetup

Isn't DaHoss a 'visual handicapper' more than anything else? Hasn't he had runs with significantly higher ROI?

Again, not the point. I've written many times on here that there are plenty of better handicappers than me on here. I'm sure you're one of them yourself. Dahoss I'm sure is also better than I am.

Why do you keep throwing out red herrings?

And you can ask Dahoss how many races he's posted on here while tracking them and what his ROI was...I don't recall.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

PA, give us a simple version of how you came up with Always Dreaming at 22-1 on your value line.....

I plugged the numbers in and out spit the odds line.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

When your betting line lists Green Gratto at 7-5, and the pre-Derby Always Dreaming at 22-1...then something is amiss.

Pretty sure I had GG at 6/5...don't sell me short

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I plugged the numbers in and out spit the odds line.

Plugged in through whom?

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by rsetup

Isn't DaHoss a 'visual handicapper' more than anything else? Hasn't he had runs with significantly higher ROI?

I don't recall DaHoss ever declaring what his handicapping consisted of. He has mentioned replays...but I don't know if he is strictly a "replay guy"...like EMD4ME is(was?).

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Plugged in through whom?

I don't understand your question.

I take certain numbers for each horse and run them all through the oddsmaker spreadsheet that cj has released on this board a few times. I've since modified the oddsmaker spreadsheet from its original form to suit my needs, tweaked it a little here and there, and we are where we are today.

It certainly doesn't get every race right. Hell, my top choice only wins at a 20% rate. It's wrong PLENTY. But another lesson learned is you don't have to be right all that often to still make money.

Although I will point out that I nailed the following two races cold yesterday:

Cold Trifecta $1335 w/ 27-1 second and 40-1 third: http://www.equibase.com/premium/char...17&cy=USA&rn=4
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...9&postcount=54

Cold Superfecta $1142.30:
http://www.equibase.com/premium/char...17&cy=CAN&rn=8
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...6&postcount=55

For the record I don't bet anything but WIN, so I can't claim to have had those, especially that Trifecta where the winner was an underlay.

[jimmyb]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

You've managed to show a profit after about 400 selections, by relying only on speed and pace figures. My guess is that you'll NEVER see a similar handicapping exhibition staged by a "visual handicapper"...who relies on replays for his selections. Therefore...you've won your argument...IMO.

What he said!!! The same situation holds true if I were writing a research paper. My audience is going to expect me to present credible and reliable results so that they can trust in my expertise. NO RED BOARDING ALLOWED. Lack of evidence will not convince me that a claim is plausible or correct.

[timtam]

Why don't you just put all your picks up and the whole board will be millionaries?

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by timtam

Why don't you just put all your picks up and the whole board will be millionaries?

I do. Every pick. Every day. For the last 39 days. Although I did skip a day or two where I had family obligations on the weekend.

Where have you been?