Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
Over the years, I have found that one of the hardest things to predict is which 2 year olds will stretch out.
I think it's a combination of what ch is talking about, plus that these are young horses still maturing and we don't know which ones will take a big step forward as they mature and which won't, plus the added distance and which ones have stamina and which ones don't.
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I don't have much luck projecting which ones will stretch out well either unless the pedigree screams "long". I think I am better off not even thinking about it just to avoid outsmarting myself and dragging myself towards the same horses the public is betting.
I've had my eye on the Hopeful since the moment it was run.
If you look at the field, there were several well bred horses from good barns that were fast, had good Beyer figures for maiden graduates, and looked like they could eventually be pretty good.
The race development was kind of hot, several of those horses got outrun or tried badly, and they ran figures well below the level they had run previously. That's kind of the pattern that screams that a race was better than it looks (especially the speeds that competed early, raced close, or that got outrun). It happens a LOT when 2yos are coming out of shorter races and stretch out to 7F or longer.
I'm not sure how good all these horses will be, but several of them (including or especially the winner) ran better than it looks.