The Hopeful was a Key Race?

[RunForTheRoses]

Don't think either will make noise in the BC, maybe Roman's horse.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by RunForTheRoses

Don't think either will make noise in the BC, maybe Roman's horse.

Well it was a grade 1 with a lot of well bred horses, Givemeaminute ran so so out of it but the Romans horse ran well though the figure was so so .

[classhandicapper]

Sometimes when 2yo 7F races are loaded 5 1/2-6F speed types that recently graduated, the horses are not ready to deal with pace pressure, finding themselves off the pace, and a generally hot race flow going 7F. So the race will fall apart a bit. Those races are generally a little better than the final time indicates. They will look worse than they actually are compared to the next set of maiden graduates when they face each other if all you look at is speed figures.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Sometimes when 2yo 7F races are loaded 5 1/2-6F speed types that recently graduated, the horses are not ready to deal with pace pressure, finding themselves off the pace, and a generally hot race flow going 7F. So the race will fall apart a bit. Those races are generally a little better than the final time indicates. They will look worse than they actually are compared to the next set of maiden graduates when they face each other if all you look at is speed figures.

Over the years, I have found that one of the hardest things to predict is which 2 year olds will stretch out. For instance, we just had the Frontrunner out here, and I had no idea Bolt D'Oro would stretch out so well. I didn't have Gormley last year either. Lots of times I will be visually impressed with a 2 year old in a 5 1/2 furlong race and watch as the horse's career completely peters out as the distances increase. In contrast, generally if I am visually impressed with an older first time starter, my judgment gets confirmed.

I think it's a combination of what ch is talking about, plus that these are young horses still maturing and we don't know which ones will take a big step forward as they mature and which won't, plus the added distance and which ones have stamina and which ones don't.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Over the years, I have found that one of the hardest things to predict is which 2 year olds will stretch out.

I think it's a combination of what ch is talking about, plus that these are young horses still maturing and we don't know which ones will take a big step forward as they mature and which won't, plus the added distance and which ones have stamina and which ones don't.

I don't have much luck projecting which ones will stretch out well either unless the pedigree screams "long". I think I am better off not even thinking about it just to avoid outsmarting myself and dragging myself towards the same horses the public is betting.

I've had my eye on the Hopeful since the moment it was run.

If you look at the field, there were several well bred horses from good barns that were fast, had good Beyer figures for maiden graduates, and looked like they could eventually be pretty good.

The race development was kind of hot, several of those horses got outrun or tried badly, and they ran figures well below the level they had run previously. That's kind of the pattern that screams that a race was better than it looks (especially the speeds that competed early, raced close, or that got outrun). It happens a LOT when 2yos are coming out of shorter races and stretch out to 7F or longer.

I'm not sure how good all these horses will be, but several of them (including or especially the winner) ran better than it looks.