 |
|
10-02-2017, 07:55 PM
|
#46
|
|
The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,819
|
When they run back, if they go off at 6-1 or better, the race got a 113.
If they go off favored, it got a 100.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
|
|
|
|
10-02-2017, 08:28 PM
|
#47
|
|
clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,558
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
When they run back, if they go off at 6-1 or better, the race got a 113.
If they go off favored, it got a 100.
|
That's value in a nutshell.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
|
|
|
|
10-02-2017, 08:47 PM
|
#48
|
|
@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Afleet
You are right-I can't say that for certain(racetrack changed). I actually agree that it may not be possible for all those horses to improve so dramatically in the same race (even though 2 y/o do improve dramatically-you see it everyday in the pp's), but why not just give Paradise woods a lower number?
|
It isn't like they were the only routes on the card.
|
|
|
|
|
10-02-2017, 08:57 PM
|
#49
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: pen
Posts: 4,581
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
People take less risks as they get older, generally speaking.
|
kinda reminds me of the grand canyon discussion in quinn's book figure handicapping.
i think hopkins made that number?
|
|
|
|
|
10-02-2017, 09:00 PM
|
#50
|
|
@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
|
This is how the four G1 route winners look in our charts. Running lines are past performance style. You'll note final time is even hire for Bolt d'Oro.
|
|
|
|
|
10-02-2017, 09:01 PM
|
#51
|
|
@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by proximity
kinda reminds me of the grand canyon discussion in quinn's book figure handicapping.
i think hopkins made that number?
|
I remember that vaguely. I'm curious about the Beholder race mentioned earlier. That was a crazy number, going to have to look it up on my stuff.
|
|
|
|
|
10-02-2017, 09:09 PM
|
#52
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 4,149
|
I respect Beyer but all 4 could have run their asses off, these were Cali-dominant horses which had time off sine Dmr. What does Thorograph and Ragozin say?
|
|
|
|
|
10-03-2017, 02:16 AM
|
#53
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,289
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
I remember that vaguely. I'm curious about the Beholder race mentioned earlier. That was a crazy number, going to have to look it up on my stuff.
|
That was me. It just seems like contradictory logic regarding these two. Interested to see what you find.
|
|
|
|
|
10-03-2017, 10:19 AM
|
#54
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,606
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
I remember that vaguely. I'm curious about the Beholder race mentioned earlier. That was a crazy number, going to have to look it up on my stuff.
|
We discussed that one privately at the time. I don't remember what we concluded.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
|
|
|
|
|
10-03-2017, 10:28 AM
|
#55
|
|
@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
We discussed that one privately at the time. I don't remember what we concluded.
|
I knew personal I stuck with the big number. I think ahe eventually got back to it when wining the Pacific Classic. Was it wrong? Who knows. She sure turned out to be a special horse.
|
|
|
|
|
10-03-2017, 10:38 AM
|
#56
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,606
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
I knew personal I stuck with the big number. I think ahe eventually got back to it when wining the Pacific Classic. Was it wrong? Who knows. She sure turned out to be a special horse.
|
I think I prefer leaving them alone unless you have clear evidence something about the conditions changed significantly (rain, temperature, humidity, heavy maintenance, wind etc..). When you start tweaking too much they stop feeling like speed figures and start to resemble some kind of class analysis with back figures substituting for class designations. Plus, there are too many opportunities for incorrect back door adjustments for how the track was playing, pace, trips etc... that get done through the track variant.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
|
|
|
|
|
10-03-2017, 01:02 PM
|
#58
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,118
|
Didn't Beyer write about a similar situation in his book Picking Winners? And as far as this figure goes, the two things that stand out are:
Last edited by jay68802; 10-03-2017 at 01:13 PM.
Reason: brain fart
|
|
|
|
|
10-03-2017, 01:29 PM
|
#59
|
|
Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
|
CJ, do you revise your numbers? If so, how often and under what circumstances? Lastly, what is the maximum time in between a revision from said race would you allow?
|
|
|
|
|
10-03-2017, 01:45 PM
|
#60
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2016
Posts: 109
|
My 2 cents ...
I've been making and betting my own speed figures for a long time.
Personally, I don't see a reason to break the race out.
"Arazi"-like performances do happen, never to be repeated.
The rest of the field earned numbers that certainly fit according to my numbers.
I'll adjust variants with timing errors (mostly), weather, run-ups.
Last edited by Prof.Factor; 10-03-2017 at 01:46 PM.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
|
