2015 Belmont Stakes - you make the morning line

[horses4courses]

Here are the probables for the Belmont (per DRF Jay Privman)

Care to take a stab at the morning line?
Here's mine:

American Pharoah 4-5

Frosted 5-1

Materiality 6-1

Carpe Diem 12-1

Mubtaahij 15-1

Madefromlucky 15-1

Tale of Verve 20-1

Keen Ice 30-1

Conquest Curlinate 30-1

Frammento 50-1

War Story 50-1

[RacingFan1992]

10 Horses? I have Madefromlucky winning the Belmont Stakes.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

Here are the probables for the Belmont (per DRF Jay Privman)

Care to take a stab at the morning line?
Here's mine:

American Pharoah 4-5

Frosted 5-1

Materiality 6-1

Carpe Diem 12-1

Mubtaahij 15-1

Madefromlucky 15-1

Tale of Verve 20-1

Keen Ice 30-1

Conquest Curlinate 30-1

Frammento 50-1

War Story 50-1

The following is a line that was spawned by my model:

[horses4courses]

I don't see how your odds correlate to win percentage.

From your odds line, I would get the following %:

55, 14, 12, 9, 8, 6.5, 6.5, and 3.5 on each of the last four.

What am I missing?

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

I don't see how your odds correlate to win percentage.

From your odds line, I would get the following %:

55, 14, 12, 9, 8, 6.5, 6.5, and 3.5 on each of the last four.

What am I missing?

Odds are calculated after applying a 15% take out (not similarly to the way M/L is calculated)

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

Odds are calculated after applying a 15% take out (not similarly to the way M/L is calculated)

Well, we're in the same ballpark.
Tale Of Verve is the only sizable difference.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

Well, we're in the same ballpark.

Obviously.

I think this is pretty much the "correct" line.. Things might change during the remaining time but I do not expect anything dramatic..

My early thoughts are that Materiality , Frosted , Carpe Diem will be overbet. I am very sceptic about the chances of the three of them.. Maybe one of the longest shots can present some betting value...

This will be my very first time ever to back a Triple Crown possibility and I (want to!) believe this time we will have one!

[cnollfan]

Are we looking for a morning line that will duplicate the Belmont morning line, or one that will duplicate the final odds? I think American Pharoah will go to post no higher than 0.50-1.

[charm city whizz]

Might be off topic but If AP wins he'll pay more to place then to win, 100% fact

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by cnollfan

Are we looking for a morning line that will duplicate the Belmont morning line, or one that will duplicate the final odds? I think American Pharoah will go to post no higher than 0.50-1.

My lines are trying to simulate the crowd and not the M/L maker

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by charm city whizz

Might be off topic but If AP wins he'll pay more to place then to win, 100% fact

Obviously you refer to the two dollar souvenir win tix.. I still do not think this will be the case

[davew]

I think Mubtaahij will close at under 10/1

ran better in Derby than result would indicate because of so many horses and early traffic

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by cnollfan

Are we looking for a morning line that will duplicate the Belmont morning line, or one that will duplicate the final odds?

I would say both.

[lamboguy]

i think the most interesting thing for the Belmont with be which horse Joel Rosario rides. i haven't heard if he has signed on to either horse yet. with MATERIALITY running that would hypothetically improve the chances of FROSTED to chase down the pace.

to me the problem with handicapping this race is how much weight you give the Preakness in the slop and how you evaluate the internal fractions of AMERICAN PHAROAH.

because i like to look at things on the bright side, i am going to make those fractions as being legitamate. i will pay close attention to CJ and his timeform appraisal to come up with more clues on wednesday. i suspect everyone here are on the edge of their seats waiting for 12:30 wednesday on TVG to hear what he has to say about the Preakness. it will be very interesting to see how he rates the Preakness compared to The Sir Barton Stakes.

[Dahoss2002]

corresponding to their odds, Carp Diem 12-1 and War Story 50-1 , might need a little adjustment given the rest of the field