American Pharoah: Triple Crown Winner: NAY or YAY?

[RacingFan1992]

Will he do it and why?

I don't think he will. I said it before and I will say it now: BELMONT is the key and AP doesn't have the key to open up the door.

[Rex Phinney]

It's different at Belmont. I can't explain why, it just is.

I think maybe decades ago more riders and trainers spent more time there so it wasn't such a big deal. As it is now, you have horses and even Jockeys chasing the crown who spend all their spring in SoCal, Florida or Lousiana. After having been there last year for the first time, Belmont is a unique track. I just don't know if I could ever trust a horse or even a jockey who has never run there or had success there.

Maybe I have this wrong, but I feel like decades ago this lack of experience at Belmont in Triple Crown races was not as big an issue. I know older horses get to run there more during the fall, but these three year olds typically go there now a days with no races over the track. I think that works at Churchill and Pimlico, but not at a track like Belmont.

[thaskalos]

I will never forget how unbeatable Smarty Jones looked after his Preakness victory. If he couldn't win the Belmont...then I have to think that American Pharoah won't do it either.

[RacingFan1992]

Originally Posted by Rex Phinney

It's different at Belmont. I can't explain why, it just is.

I think maybe decades ago more riders and trainers spent more time there so it wasn't such a big deal. As it is now, you have horses and even Jockeys chasing the crown who spend all their spring in SoCal, Florida or Lousiana. After having been there last year for the first time, Belmont is a unique track. I just don't know if I could ever trust a horse or even a jockey who has never run there or had success there.

Maybe I have this wrong, but I feel like decades ago this lack of experience at Belmont in Triple Crown races was not as big an issue. I know older horses get to run there more during the fall, but these three year olds typically go there now a days with no races over the track. I think that works at Churchill and Pimlico, but not at a track like Belmont.

Thank You! Spectacular Bid, Pleasant Colony, and Funny Cide all ran at Belmont at 2 with a total of 4 out of 5 wins. The three horse who beat them also race at Belmont at 2 with 3 out of the 6 starts being wins.

On five occasions there have been horse who were going for the Triple Crown and never raced at Belmont and they were beaten by horses who did race at Belmont at 2.

I keep telling people Belmont is DIFFERENT. It is a beast that chews you up and spits you out.

[lamboguy]

i would say yes. unlike SMARTY JONES who campaigned and beat a very weak crop of 3 year olds, this one has a bunch of good ones that he has succeeded to knock out.

even if you add a rested FROSTED and MATERIALITY to the Belmont i have the fair price for AMERICAN PHAROAH at 8 cents to the dollar before post position which doesn't matter that much at Belmont.

the only thing that could change would be an injury or poor training leading up to the race.

[Robert Fischer]

He's got a good shot.

Maybe a 40% +20%/-10% (between 60% and 30%) chance if starter. Maybe that's a solid ballpark estimate for tonight. It's tough to guess a percentage, and I'm tired and frustrated tonight, so I'm not going to spend effort to do this for a message board.

He's basically a more relaxed, more composed version of Bernardini.
He's not completely invincible but he's one of the great recent horses that we've had, and his 'limiting factors' also have higher limits than the other horses.
He can lose if confronted with a top grade 1 effort, or something flukey.

[Dahoss2002]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

He's got a good shot.

Maybe a 40% +20%/-10% (between 60% and 30%) chance if starter. Maybe that's a solid ballpark estimate for tonight. It's tough to guess a percentage, and I'm tired and frustrated tonight, so I'm not going to spend effort to do this for a message board.

He's basically a more relaxed, more composed version of Bernardini.
He's not completely invincible but he's one of the great recent horses that we've had, and his 'limiting factors' also have higher limits than the other horses.
He can lose if confronted with a top grade 1 effort, or something flukey.

I think he does. Last one I felt this way about was Big Brown. AP might have a better jockey

[depalma113]

Why will he win the Triple Crown? He's far and away better than anything he's going to face. He'll get a work over the track. That is all he needs.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Dahoss2002

I think he does. Last one I felt this way about was Big Brown. AP might have a better jockey

What is he? Something like 2-67 at Belmont (at this time last year). Preakness was first time I thought the horse looked like the real deal but the Preakness also looked like some scripted WWF match. Gonna be grumpy not pulling the 1/ALL/ALL trifecta. Can AP win at Belmont? Sure. This crop of 3yo is pathetic. It's tough finding a 100 BSF for any of them. It's AP then a sizable gap. Who's gonna beat him? This coming from someone who would love to see the horse get crushed.

[uncbossfan]

Before yesterday I was thinking he'd win the Preakness and fall sort in the Belmont. After that race though, I think he is going to do it. He just exudes greatness.

Most importantly tho, I hope people finally start getting the narrative right about this triple crown drought. It is not that these derby and Preakness winners aren't as great as past winners or that the 3 races in 5 weeks is too much, although it is very challenging. It has more to do with Belmont field size than anything else. No disrespect to some of the TC winners from much earlier yrs, but if smarty jones or cal chrome would've run against 3 and 4 horse fields like some of them did we'd have had many more TC winners the past decade.

[BlueChip@DRF]

If 8 starters or less: yes
If 9 starters or more: no

[upthecreek]

Anthony J Stabile (@TheBigAStabile) tweeted at 8:42 AM on Sun, May 17, 2015:
All 11 Triple Crown winners had raced at Belmont prior to the
@BelmontStakes. American Pharoah isn't arriving until 3 days before. Not smart

[RacingFan1992]

Originally Posted by upthecreek

Anthony J Stabile (@TheBigAStabile) tweeted at 8:42 AM on Sun, May 17, 2015:
All 11 Triple Crown winners had raced at Belmont prior to the
@BelmontStakes. American Pharoah isn't arriving until 3 days before. Not smart

HELLO! Isn't this what I have been saying all along. He WON'T do it! Espinoza has been in this position twice before and Baffert three times. They should do it but they aren't.

[depalma113]

Originally Posted by RacingFan1992

HELLO! Isn't this what I have been saying all along. He WON'T do it! Espinoza has been in this position twice before and Baffert three times. They should do it but they aren't.

When American Pharoah made his first appearance at Pimlico there was one guy in the stands watching with great interest. He had a one solemn word response when the horse passed by.

"F**k."

That guy was Gary Stevens.

He knew his horse was beat days before the race.

It's about time you all start to realize the same. If the horse you are backing on top is not American Pharoah, you are beat.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by depalma113

It's about time you all start to realize the same. If the horse you are backing on top is not American Pharoah, you are beat.

Chrome worshipers said the same last year. Problem is I cannot find a Tonalist this year so you might be right. Slowest Preakness in 65 years so there is still a chance something is better than AP out there.